Crawford vs Canelo prediction thread.

Canelo was quite careful in his last fights and I think he will defeat Crawford in the same way...

 

Canelo by decision, the weight class is there for a reason in my opinion.

 

Big Red failed to even KD/KO Charlo so I’m going with Canelo on the cards

 

If that happens, what does a result like this do for Canelo's legacy? How greatly would something like this enhance it? That could be seen as being Canelo's greatest win, if it were a stoppage of Crawford.

Stopping an undefeated P4P Great like Crawford wouldn't just be some small or expected accomplishment. I don't get the sense that you or others would count this as significantly as it should be considered. While, yes, Crawford is coming up from lower weight classes, and maybe he slows down by putting on weight, though that is unknown at this point. While this has happened to some fighters who have put on weight, every fighter is different. And I don't think anyone has gone up multiple weight classes quite like Crawford has. Also as Serge has often pointed out, Crawford has been carrying around this kind of weight for some time, only to boil down to lower weights in training camp.

To your point, probably Crawford maybe gets a little slower with more weight on fight night, but on the other hand, he's not exactly known for his fast moving feet. Crawford generally plants and gets in and out, he isn't on his bike. Be that as it may, the conventional wisdom would be that a Canelo stoppage of Crawford should easily put Canelo back to P4P #1.

Now, if Canelo is unable to stop Crawford, even if he wins a decision, perhaps that wouldn't be seen as impressive as stopping him, but in either case, I don't know how beating a top P4P undefeated fighter as Crawford is would not be a legacy defining accomplishment for Canelo.

Of course there will be detractors who will not be impressed due to Canelo beating a so-called smaller man, even though he's "bigger", even though he's been walking around at this weight for yearsl Funny how that works, he'd be chopping down a "bigger" tree here. But wouldn't this be like not being impressed with Hagler beating Sugar Ray if he had managed to win that? The point is, beating a top P4P star is always going to be a massive win and legacy defining accomplishment. But I don't see that some or even many would give Canelo the kind of credit if he were to beat Crawford.

It would be interesting to see how much Canelo would move up with a stoppage win, or even a decision win. I could see some trying to rationalize it and not giving him full credit, but under normal standards, Canelo beating Crawford in any manner should elevate him to P4P #1, and of course if Crawford wins, he should of course get even more credit, and many have said if he wins he should be P4P #1.

But the point I'm making, and maybe you don't fully agree with this, is that realistically this match should be for P4P #1, given the fact that these guys have a combined over 100 wins, one is undefeated the other has 2 decision losses to ATGs. I think we should look at this match in its proper context, that this is a legacy defining fight for both guys, and that not only Crawford but also Canelo has a lot to gain here. A Canelo victory has to move him up in the P4P rankings considerably. Maybe not all the way to #1, although it should, maybe some would keep Usyk or Inoue there, but Canelo would be certainly in that conversation. I think it would be difficult for anyone to deny Canelo P4P #1 if he beats Crawford, not only for beating Crawford but given who he's beaten since the loss to Bivol. I mean he's dominated quality opponent after quality opponent. He didn't dominate Scull, that was very close, closer than any fight since Bivol if we're honest. But also extremely negative.

But the point is, and maybe you don't agree, but if Canelo wins, he deserves credit. This is a difficult fight for him. Crawford is highly skilled and more skilled than maybe anyone he's fought besides Floyd. And if Canelo does beat Bud convincingly or by stoppage, would you consider that a greater win that GGG for example or anyone other of Canelo's wins? The problem with the GGG wins is that you and others weren't impressed or didn't think he actually won the 2nd or maybe even the 3rd. The point is, where would a win over Crawford stack up for Canelo? And what kind of challenges does Crawford present for the SMW King? Can he be dethroned?

 

https://www.boxingforum24.com/threads/santos-saúl-Álvarez-barragán-vs-terence-allan-crawford.737954/

 

That was a competitive poll. More people think Canelo will win, but a sizable minority think Crawford will win. Over 82% think it will go to a decision.

 

Canelo by MD. Cards will be 114-114, 115-113 and 119-109.

 

I'm going with Crawford by decision simply based on the history of him figuring out how to beat his opponent round by round even when the opponent has something in his bag that Crawford considers an issue. From Gamboa, to Kavaliauskas, to Brook, to Porter.......We've seen Crawford make an adjustment or 2 and completed turn the fight around in his favorite regardless if he's down on the cards or it's a close one. With Canelo, we've seen him not have an answer for the attack and/or defense he was up against. From Floyd, to Lara, to (the 1st fight) GGG, to Bivol....... Even Amir Khan had success vs Canelo until Khan showed himself to be Khan and crumble with a clear punch to the chin.

Biggest question for me is what will Crawford do to avoid, absorb, and/or shake off the power he receives from Canelo. Crawford is strong and power himself, but he's never delt with that type of power on that stage before in his career. Canelo on the other hand has faced some massive punchers in GGG, Bivol, Kov, etc....

I don't think the die hard Canelo or Crawford supporters have it right as both think their guy has a massive advantage over the other. I personally think it will be an IQ fight the first half of the fight with Crawford finding a way to separate himself circa round 9/10.......

I reserve the right to adjust my prediction when they both actually start camp and we see them closer to fight night. But for now...... It's a close fight with Crawford doing Crawford stuff late.......

 

That looks like a Canelo card......lol. There's always that one judge who look like they had the winner picked during the national anthem......lol

 

The judges have to think that way, if they want to be chosen for more Canelo fights. The trick is to not look so obvious.

 

This fight is a little like Hagler vs Duran, but even worse because Canelo is a true super middleweight. What Crawford actually proved is he is an elite welterweight, the undisputed welterweight champ going against the undisputed super middleweight champ. We saw what happened to Charlo, the undisputed junior middleweight champ, and it wasn't competitive. If Canelo loses this it will be awful for Canelo's legacy. Canelo is expected to win this, and he better. Everybody is talking about Crawford's walking around weight going into this fight, but fail to recognize Kell Brooks walking around weight of 190 lbs going in against GGG before getting wrecked. Crawford is better than Brook but this is no different except Canelo is a 168 lb champ. If Canelo loses, it will be as bad as Delahoya losing to Pacquiao or Hagler losing to Leonard. If Canelo wins, it will be more like Nunn beating Starling or Curry, or maybe Hagler beating Curry in his prime. Which is ok, but expected from a an elite big man vs an elite smaller man.

 

If Crawford and it’s a big IF can deal with the extra weight then it should make a decent fight,but as already mentioned Crawford was slow at 154. Canelo loves being the weight bully and this Crawford fight is right up his street and he more than likely wins it on points but I’d love for Crawford to get the win .

 

There's plenty of framing going on here on all sides, and that includes me but no ones really addressing the points that I made about P4P. You're framing this in a way to say that Canelo has nothing to gain here. He certainly has a lot to lose. He'd never hear the end of it if he loses Undisputed to a "blown up welterweight". I'm not sure that's accurate though because Bud was definitely outgrowing welterweight and I don't think he had any ability to stay there after beating Spence. If you recall, even when a Spence rematch was being tossed around, Bud insisted that it woud have to be at 154 that he could no longer weigh 147. So I don't think you can include the jump from 147 to 154 as part of the current jump he is making.

The reality is that Bud was killing himself to make 147. Your Kell Brook analogy is misleading because Brook was a title holder at Welterweight when he moved up. Now granted, he had been at 147 longer than Bud has been at 154, but you're pretending that Bud is still a welterweight. What Brook did when he moved up to fight GGG is very similar to what Bud is doing now. Essentially it's only the 1 lb difference between the 13 lbs between WW and MW and the 14 lbs between LMW and SMW.

And unlike Brook, who moved up that 13 lbs to fight GGG at 160 over a very short period of time, Bud has had much longer to put on weight slowly and to traverse more weight. But I think it's important to point out that Bud is better suited to make a larger overall jump in weight than Brook did. So there are huge differences here that you're ignoring. I don't think Kell Brook had the physical advantages or the explosive punching power to pose a problem for GGG as Bud can with Canelo. Anotherwords, Bud matches up to Canelo in terms of size and style better than Brook matched up to GGG. If you disagree with this I don't know what to tell you, but any way you slice it, I think we can all agree that this has the makings to be a much more competitive fight than Brook GGG was.

So I don't agree with the framing that Canelo has nothing to gain here. If we're going by conventional wisdom, a win over Crawford should put Canelo back at P4P #1. Or at least back into the conversation. We're talking about a win over Crawford who many have as P4P #1 and those who don't seem to have him near the top at hte #2 or #3 spot. A win over an undefeated Top 3 P4P talent when you're already as accomplished as Canelo is would be hard to compete with. The weight difference could certainly be used to marginalize this if Canelo is able to win but on the other hand, you could rate this as Canelo's best win. Canelo has a lot to lose here because a loss to Crawford would see him dethroned vs a guy coming in weight. And I do agree about the Sugar Ray Hagler comparisons. This is very similar to that as well. Not as much weight traversed between fights as Bud but on the other hand much more inactivity from Sugar Ray.