Crawford vs Canelo prediction thread.

There's plenty of framing going on here on all sides, and that includes me but no ones really addressing the points that I made about P4P. You're framing this in a way to say that Canelo has nothing to gain here. He certainly has a lot to lose. He'd never hear the end of it if he loses Undisputed to a "blown up welterweight". I'm not sure that's accurate though because Bud was definitely outgrowing welterweight and I don't think he had any ability to stay there after beating Spence. If you recall, even when a Spence rematch was being tossed around, Bud insisted that it woud have to be at 154 that he could no longer weigh 147. So I don't think you can include the jump from 147 to 154 as part of the current jump he is making.

The reality is that Bud was killing himself to make 147. Your Kell Brook analogy is misleading because Brook was a title holder at Welterweight when he moved up. Now granted, he had been at 147 longer than Bud has been at 154, but you're pretending that Bud is still a welterweight. What Brook did when he moved up to fight GGG is very similar to what Bud is doing now. Essentially it's only the 1 lb difference between the 13 lbs between WW and MW and the 14 lbs between LMW and SMW.

And unlike Brook, who moved up that 13 lbs to fight GGG at 160 over a very short period of time, Bud has had much longer to put on weight slowly and to traverse more weight. But I think it's important to point out that Bud is better suited to make a larger overall jump in weight than Brook did. So there are huge differences here that you're ignoring. I don't think Kell Brook had the physical advantages or the explosive punching power to pose a problem for GGG as Bud can with Canelo. Anotherwords, Bud matches up to Canelo in terms of size and style better than Brook matched up to GGG. If you disagree with this I don't know what to tell you, but any way you slice it, I think we can all agree that this has the makings to be a much more competitive fight than Brook GGG was.

So I don't agree with the framing that Canelo has nothing to gain here. If we're going by conventional wisdom, a win over Crawford should put Canelo back at P4P #1. Or at least back into the conversation. We're talking about a win over Crawford who many have as P4P #1 and those who don't seem to have him near the top at hte #2 or #3 spot. A win over an undefeated Top 3 P4P talent when you're already as accomplished as Canelo is would be hard to compete with. The weight difference could certainly be used to marginalize this if Canelo is able to win but on the other hand, you could rate this as Canelo's best win. Canelo has a lot to lose here because a loss to Crawford would see him dethroned vs a guy coming in weight. And I do agree about the Sugar Ray Hagler comparisons. This is very similar to that as well. Not as much weight traversed between fights as Bud but on the other hand much more inactivity from Sugar Ray.

 

Actually, Canelo did knock down Charlo.

 

PFP wise a win does nothing for Canelo, he is supposed to win. If Canelo gets beat he might drop out of the top ten, or possibly remain at #10.

 

He's not supposed to do anything. A lot of people are picking Bud to win this. Whether they are saying that with their hearts or their brains, we all know how good Crawford is and how difficult of a fight this is, for both men.

To say what you're saying, you're treating Crawford like he's some bum. How does a win over a Fighter who is Undefeated and who many consider P4P #1 if not near the top, not do anything for him "PFP" wise? This does more for Canelo P4P wise than practically any fight he's ever had since it's against a Top P4P Fighter.

 

Brook out grew the welterweight division but some how through some miracle he would force himself to make weight. As he said himself, all he had to do was lose 30 lbs from 190 lbs to 160lbs rather than go all the way down to 147lbs. Brook was rated #10 pfp at the time by Ring magazine. Brook was a huge welterweight. A loss to Crawford for Canelo would be like if Hagler lost to Duran, a former lightweight, but worse. Canelo is a natural 168lbs fighter and the undisputed 168lbs champ.

 

No, Crawford is by far the smaller man. Its like Donald Curry going up against the super middleweight Canelo. As good as Curry was, Canelo better win. Thats a solid 21 lb jump, three divisions.

 

Crawford’s the chess master, Canelo’s the puncher. When brains and guile meet brawn, the smart money’s on the man who can make you miss and make you pay. Bud can pull it off—by outboxing, outsmarting, and outlasting the bigger man.

 

It surprises me how many people think that Crawford has a chance here. We have all been watching boxing for a long time and especially in the past decade it hasn't gone to well for these smaller fighters moving up to challenge good bigger men.

Give me Canelo by TKO between rounds 6 and 10 the main reason I believe Crawford gets stopped is because he isn't going to run like Charlo he will actually try winning the fight. Crawford is highly skilled but it is not like he is levels above Canelo. Canelo is not only the biggest man Crawford will have fought he is the most skilled fighter Crawford will have fought as well add to the fact that Crawford is now 38 years old. It's a recipe for a beat down the deck is heavily stacked against him.

 

Duran won a Title at Middleweight at 37 years old. And he went on to fight at Super Middleweight. Moving up multiple weight classes is not unheard of. Brook was a big welterweight but he didn't have the physical advantages or the skillset that Terence has. Brook might have been fringe Top 10 P4P but he was never P4P #1 or close to it like Bud has been for as long as he has.

So you're comparing apples to oranges. And to say that Canelo is a natural 168er, not really. No one expected him to go up to 168 after he fought GGG those first two times. If Brook was "outgrowing" 147, then you could say the same about how Canelo was "outgrowing" 154 before he moved up to fight GGG.

Canelo fought at 154 in his last fight there vs Liam Smith in September 2016. Just over 2 years later he was already fighting at 168 when he beat Rocky Fielding. Then Canelo dropped back down to MW for one last fight vs Jacobs, schooling him in one of his best ever performances, only to move all the way up to Light Heavyweight later that year to than later and knocked Kovalev out cold.

Canelo moved up 3 weight classes in about 3 years, only to drop back down to SMW and settle there, besides the Bivol excursion of course. What Crawford is doing is moving up 3 weight classes in about 2 years, but the difference is he's only fighting about once per year. When Canelo moved through all those weight classes, he was fighting twice a year.

If we're talking about someone's natural weight class, it depends when you are taking about. Was Duran's "natural weight" still lightweight when he was 37 and he beat Iran Barkley at Middleweight? When you settle into a weight classes you could say that becomes your natural weight class, but Canelo came from multiple weight divisions below where he is now. Some fighters fight in the same division (essentially) from the beginning of their careers to the end, like GGG. Others gradually move through the weight classes throughout their careers, like Canelo, Crawford, and many others. It all depends on the fighter and you're trying to act like this is some reason to use as an excuse.

Canelo's "natural weight" was 154 then he outgrew that weight and kept moving up. This is something that happens particularly as fighters get into their mid to late 30s. That's what Crawford is doing, but he is moving up in a smarter way that Brook, who did it all at once, jumping at the opportunity to fight GGG when it was offered. And you can claim that he was walking around at 190 all that time but that doesn't sound right. If Brook walked around at 190 then how much does Bud walk around at? 180s? We hear all kinds of stories about how much boxers weight and how much they boil down to, I don't know what to believe, but all I know is that Bud is a much higher level operator in the ring than Kell Brook ever was, and Bud's ring IQ and ability to adjust is top level. Now will it be enough to dethorne Canelo? I don't know that, that's what the fight is for, but you are selling Crawford short if you don't think beating him will do anything for Canelo.

 

Correction
You right

 

Brook was ripped beyond ripped with layers of muscle and no fat. He really had no business at 147 lbs. 154lbs was Crawfords 4th weight division up, 175lbs was Canelo's 4th division up. Imagine if Canelo went up to fight Usyk at 200 lbs, who would be the favorite? Usyk was a top 10 pfp when he fought at cruiserweight. Crawford may or may not be the best 154lbs fighter in the world. Nobody knows how Crawford would do at 160lbs either. Could he hang with Zhanibek, Lara, Adames and defeat them clearly to get a shot at Canelo? We will never know, he skipped them all to cash out. We don't know for sure Crawford could defeat Mall Charlo, who got shut out and knocked down by Canelo. The one hope that Crawford has is Canelo might be past it. He looked terrible against Scull.

 

Canelo by decision , the more Crawford looks for it the more he will get it. If Canelo can loosen up some and stop loading up on every shot , I think he stops him in about 9rds.

 

I'm on the c'mon, you don't jump 2 weight divisions and beat a former p4p number 1 who fought even bigger men/Canelo is on the slide, Crawford will be all wrong for him and figure Saul out to a boxing masterclass/ is this fight rigged....on the fence undecided yet.

Really I don't know yet

Gun to head right now I'd say Canelo but honestly getting caught up in the Crawford hype.

 

They both looked terrible in their last fight!