Could Wilder have cut to cruiserweight and if so how does he do?

While cruiserweight has probably the least amount of information on fight night weights, what's available does not support the idea of a prolonged campaign for Wilder at the weight. We know, for example, that Glowacki and Usyk, around the age of thirty, only gained three and eight pounds, respectively. Michael Hunter Jr., again around thirty, lost a pound by the time it was time to fight. Even Cunningham was only 204 late into his career.

This leads me to believe a Wilder drained down to cruiserweight would be a changed fighter. There is no guarantee that his most valuable asset- power- would even travel down with him.

 

I think he stops Gassiev and Huck. Briedis would be interesting. He’s got an iron chin and brings that pressure Wilder always struggles with, but a punch from Wilder would be unlike anything he took before.

 

Seeing how light Wilder was already fighting for his size it probably would travel down with him. Wilder has the Fitz "touch" sort of power and that power is much less likely to go away when a fighter cuts weight because its not coming from swinging around mass.

Also if Wilder loses a little power his opponents are getting lighter. This last guy Wilder knocked out was 218 and before him Wilder hadn't fought anyone below 232 since 2013. At CW everyone would be around 200 every single fight.

 

I'm not saying it would go away. But he would have less power, in my opinion. It's not just about losing mass, but also depleted ability to generate torque from having to unnaturally stunt his body's growth. If we're taking the more factual approach of imagining a 205-pound Wilder in the ring, fully committing to spending at least some time at cruiserweight, then the difference might be marginal. But I assume most here choose to think Wilder can rehydrate 15 pounds from 200 anyway.

 

He weighed in as low as around 210 without having to make weight, so of course he could. Draining 5 percent of your body weight isn't a problem.

 

My guess is, that of everyone who has posted in this thread, you've done the most work in collating available data on fight night weights and in analysing that data.

Most posters hear or read of extreme weight cuts and then make the mistaken assumption that they're typical. The data demonstrates otherwise.

Wilder would be around 220lbs in the ring for fights he weighed in at 215lbs. A 15-20lbs gain from weigh in to fight night, would, so far as I know, be the highest documented gain at CW, which admittedly has limited data for fight night weights.

LHW has a substantial amount of documented fight night weights. The vast, vast majority, gain less than 15lbs.

A 15-20lbs+ or 10%+, weigh in to fight night weight gain, isn't unprecedented, but it is in a significant minority.

 

If Okolie could do it, so could Wilder.

 

Not unheard of, no. But neither is it the norm as you so astutely point out. People underestimate how big a ten percent change is.

Since you mentioned light heavyweights:

Antonio Tarver, who did most of his best work past the age of thirty, is recorded to have added only 5.87% across all the bouts I've collated. That includes multiple times where he tipped in at 187. Sergey Kovalev sits at 5.94% . Another example would be Chad Dawson, who I have at 7.3%. And this, mind you, includes a bout at super middleweight where he rehydrated to his light heavyweight average of 185 anyway- a 17-pound increase overnight, which actually does amount to a 10% change (for all the good that did him).

These three are already some of the bigger specimens of their respective eras; the fighters they're known for facing cut more modest figures and gained less weight on average.

In starting up the work again, I find no fighter in any weight class who's made a career of going over 10% apart from (so far) Gatti, Chavez Jr., and Zurdo Ramirez*. Even a few of the ones often criticized for being weight bullies or who had historic battles keeping their weights to a manageable level like Morales (7.95%), Corrales (8.71%), Jacobs (8.46%), and Hatton (7.64%) do not cross this mythical line. Again, I've included all documented weights in the attempt to erase any hint of subjectivity; I put in Chico's very skewing 12% weight gain for Mayweather, where he was said to have had a less-than-ideal time at camp.

And for every Corrales out there, there's a Mayweather (3.68%), a Rigondeaux (3.55%), a Zab Judah (2.70%), a Micky Ward (4.94%), a Steve Collins (3.75%), a Reggie Johnson (3.03%).



*I could find only two instances where Ramirez' weight was measured on the night- one where he was broadcast to have gained 6.43% as a regional champion, and a purported (i.e. not shown in official graphic) 16.57% increase right before his bout with Bivol. Those two fights would be my encapsulation of his career, so to say. But it's arguable (I still err on 'yes' based on visual and circumstantial evidence) whether or not 'he's made a career' of going over 10%.

 

I agree, most posters hear of extreme weigh in to fight night weight gains and assume they're the norm. They're not.

I've collated 50+ documented weigh in to fight night weight gains, the average increase is 11.8lbs/8.65% of body weight.

As you go up in weight, the average increase in absolute terms is slightly higher, in % terms slightly lower, which is what you'd expect, for obvious reasons.

The data is clear - a CW rehydrating 15-20lbs+ between weigh in and fight night would not be unprecedented, but it would be an higher than average, and certainly not typical, increase.

 

Maybe because he was effective at not too much more than that in his fights despite being 6 foot 6.5.