Mr Humble v Mr Tumble Confirmed December 19 NETFLIX

I think every pro boxer AJ ever fought went beyond 30 seconds. He has 5 first-round stoppages out of 32 pro bouts.
The best boxer he stopped in 1st round was probably Gary Cornish.
Some pretty bad ones lasted into the 2nd though.

Jake Paul might be the worst of the lot, but he should be able to go beyond 30 seconds.

 

It’s about intent and context, not first-round knockout stats. Even Cornish was a decent pro with some amateur background, and AJ is a far more seasoned heavyweight now. This is a completely different situation. The size and power gap is obvious, and no one steps in with that in front of them without feeling it early.

The key is not letting Paul settle. Walk him down, feint, force a reaction, draw any kind of movement. Once that happens it’s a straight one two or a big shot and it’s over. The pressure alone from someone like Joshua creates nervous energy and rushed responses.

The only way this goes longer than it should is if Jake is genuinely better than most people think, Joshua is slower than he looks, or there’s some kind of agreement about how it plays out.

If Jake goes the distance, AJ becomes a laughing stock overnight. Not that he or Fast Car will really care, because the only concern will be the material gain, just like with Conor Benn, with sporting credibility taking a back seat once the cheque clears.

 

Anthony Joshua is clearly severely 'mentally shot' now, and that explains why this fight is even happening. I think he likely stops Jake Paul with a glancing shot inside 1 round, or early in the 2nd. But it will do nothing for his fragile mind.

I guess they're hoping to be lining up mentally shot AJ versus physically shot Fury for next year. And beyond-shot Wilder might be getting a shot at old man Usyk.

It's a shame. Fury, AJ and Wilder were a bit overrated 5 or 7 years ago. But now they're still looking to be hanging around in 2026, while real contenders are continually being ignored.

Hopefully Jake Paul pulls the upset of the century and ends this circus.

 

Anyone else not surprised that it’s fight week and Tyson Fury has popped up with his ‘look over here, I’m relevant, I’m relevant’ behaviour. The narcissist has done it on every big heavyweight fight week since he first ‘retired’ cough cough after beating Klitschko… it’s quite sad really.

 

As a side note, AJ just needs to go in there with that peak Hearns mindset. I’m not sure there has ever been a more intimidating fighter in the sport than Tommy Hearns at his best. He could throw almost nothing for a full round, pure Willie Pep style, and still dominate it purely off the threat he posed. The pressure he created, the mistakes he forced, and the energy his opponent wasted simply because of what he was capable of.

At the end of the day, Jake Paul is what he is. A high school-level athlete with about six years of boxing training, access to the best resources money can buy, and competitive at the level he has been fighting at. But this is not that level, and it certainly is not that weight class. There is a gulf between being serviceable in carefully chosen matchups and standing across from a genuine heavyweight puncher.

 

I think the size difference is a bigger factor than the "skill" or "proven ability" level. Because at this stage of his career, I wouldn't be surprised at all if Joshua was to get chinned by a young and ambitious 'lower level' heavyweight journeyman, even an average-punchiing one. Joshua's been off for 15 months and his recent form was awful before that. He had one impressive performance since losing twice to Usyk, and that was against Wallin 2 years ago.
He's 36 years old, was never even half as good as some people hyped him, a 'manufactured fighter', a paper champion in his prime, and he's practically finished now. So he could easily slip up now against a complete unknown/unranked heavyweight. He might have declined dramatically. His chin might be shot to pieces, completely gone. That wouldn't shock me.

Problem is, for Jake Paul, he (Paul) is a small cruiserweight naturally, probably a light-heavy or even a super-middle if he wanted to cut properly. He's no taller than 5'10 or 5'11, he'd be dwarfed by Jai Opetaia, never mind AJ. On top of that, his experience has been against smaller fighters than himself, generally.

 

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I love how his family just have to accept that he's the biggest kid of them all.

 

Jake Paul's first movement is going to be backwards.. He's then going to run as much as possible. I wouldn't mind betting he takes a leaf out of David Haye's playbook and try's to grab a clinch and sit on the floor. It's simply a case of when does AJ catch up with him. The big ring and an ultra defensive opponent makes me thing it might go as far as round 3.

 

I don't think it will happen, it's virtually impossible.
But I don't think it would reflect badly on boxing if it did. People are saying it would, but the truth is worse I think:
Jake Paul scoring upset of the century isn't as damaging to boxing as AJ getting paid the £70 million + for winning mismatch of the century. Jake Paul winning is the only thing that could possibly redeem this event.
If it goes the way we all think it will, boxing's looking very bad indeed.

 

According to Froch’s latest video more than half the tickets are still unsold, it’s got no hype because real boxing fans as well as football fans who turn up for the big fights know it’s a farce, while the misfits/Paul boxing mob who are a very different demographic all likely know the same thing.

Regardless of how shot Joshua is this should be over inside 30 seconds, the only logical non scripted reason it goes into the 2nd is if Joshua is playing with his food in the 1st, looking on my bookies app I can get 11/10 on Joshua for the grouped rounds 1-2, my boxing brain tells me to lump on as this is free money, while my non boxing brain tells me to stay well clear as the bookies rarely get it this wrong and something is just not legit around this whole charade.

 

I think Froch is just doing what he always does online, trolling for clicks and views. He’s probably a bit insulted that someone who boxed in front of 80,000 and has Cobra status got denied press credentials, but that’s what happens when you don’t play the game and might ask some real questions.

Betting wise, if this was a straight up fight, I’d be looking at a first round stoppage or even Jake struggling to land a meaningful punch. The size and reach differential are massive. He’s not coming forward Tyson style to slip inside, he’s going to back off and move. If that’s the case, AJ just controls the range and Jake isn’t landing anything outside a clinch. And how does Jake even force a clinch without getting tagged? We saw last week with Bosh Jnr what happens when someone at that level panics after getting clipped and tries to initiate a clinch while walking into range. Try that against a top level pro and you’re eating an uppercut.

The only thing that gives people pause is the pricing. Jake being less of a betting underdog than Ruiz was, and AJ being shorter than expected, tells you the bookies don’t see this as a normal fight. They’re scared of getting fleeced here and look more on the back foot than Paul will be on fight night.

 

Truth is, he’s probably shitting bricks right now in case Jake actually does the unthinkable and beats AJ. Because if that happens, even Tommy, the empty head (Darren Till’s words, not mine), who still managed to beat Paul, instantly becomes numero uno in the fighting Fury clan.

The shame alone will probably send Tyson into another three-year ‘retirement’ vanishing act.

 

If this is not scripted then this should be over in seconds.
In reality it should not be happening, the sport is dangerous enough as it is, so if the worst came to the worst and something bad happens to JP then people putting this together should go to jail.