I was going to say Tua has no chance, but if this is the 2001 version of Wlad then he does have a chance and maybe even a decent one. Wlad was still in his "destruct and destroy" phase, and he'd lost to two guys with the same basic attributes as Tua: a great chin and big power. Wlad could blow his wad and then was vulnerable. I'd say Tua was better than Puritty and arguably Brewster too. Against the later tentative jab-centric Wladopus version, Tua has basically a snowball's chance in hell.
I'm going with Wlad, but he was still not a finished product at that point, so Tua has a better chance than against Lennox.
I would contend that Wlad was the more dangerous fighter at this point. Despite the Purrity debacle he hadn't quite been humbled enough to change his tactics. And when firing all barrels he probably the most potent offensive force the division has ever seen. Meanwhile, Tua was coming in fat to a lot of his fights, which really showed against tall, big postmodern heavies. I think Wlad is the prohibitive pick. His insane jab and right were enough to keep Tua off base for 9 fights out of 10. Let me see the odds, though, and it might be worth putting down a 50 on Tuaman.
It's either Wlad 12-0 UD or Tua mid-late KO The question is, did Wlad lose against Brewster because of PTSD from the Sanders fight or because that was his level at the time. Because Tua can take any man out that makes a mistake against him pretty much
Wlad could do to Tua what Lennox did to Tua... but better. If Wlad tries to sell out and KO Tua, then the window opens. But that said, Tua is stoppable. And Wlad stopped the iron chinned and previously unstopped Ray Mercer around the same time.
Wlad back then really was susceptible to a left hook. He wasn’t the defensive genius he would later become. Prime Wlad beats him. This version would be the humbler that Sanders was. I think there is a reason they never met in the ring.