Are the odds for Itauma vs Hrgović too wide?

Itauma is currently -800, which is an 1 to 8 favorite. That seems too wide to me, considering he has only 14 wins and I'm not sure if he even has an impressive win, old Whyte and Jermaine Franklin are the only standouts. Oddsmakers really love their prospects.

 

Yes

 

Yeah, the odds are way too wide. That's why I went ahead and dropped two bets: Hrgovic by TKO in rounds 10-12, and Itauma by TKO in rounds 10-12 LOL

 

NICE

 

seems disrespectful to Hrgovic. he ain't no slouch

 

Itauma has youth and momentum on his side. Guys like that usually are hard to stop. That said Hrgovic is not a spent force, he's very tough, strong and guys like him have broken dudes like Itauma before. See: Rubio vs Lemieux, Puritty vs Wlad.

 

Hurgovic will shrink or exploit the weaknesss Ituama has yet to show

 

What if one of them TKO in rd 9?

 

This is probably due to the fact that, in addition to the sporting issues, there's also the issue of who Itauma is portrayed as and who's organizing the fight. Hrgovic will have it doubly difficult because they'll certainly make sure to support Moses if needed. The Croatian has a truly hellish task ahead.

But I don't like the stature Itauma has reached at this stage of his career. If he easily sweeps Filip, yes, we could start treating him as someone truly great, but when the biggest name in the world is "Whyte's wreck after his ordeal," putting him on a pedestal and suggesting that even Usyk couldn't handle him is starting to become a bit grotesque.

A bit too fast. This guy is riding on a huge amount of trust.

And the link is a reminder of what you can allow one fighter to do in a fight without much reaction, and how enormously such tactics can influence the support of one side. They did it once, and they'll do it again if necessary. Any major wobble (which Filip does, and yet he still proves he's still in the game later) or cut will be an excuse to end the fight. Hopefully, the Croatian will be ready for it.

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Problem is that Hrgovic has a tendency to switch off mid-fight without much reaction if it's not going his way. Better fighters have been stopped for displaying less issues.

It will cost him this fight if he doesn't address it.

 

That's right. I mentioned it once that Filip's coaches should beat him up for such moves, as he's always "sidestepping" and looking away from his opponent towards the corner. It's a very dangerous condition. Funnily enough, Filip is still far from being "disconnected" at these moments, but it does give him a leg up. Especially when the pressure is applied from above. I remember that in the Zhang fight, the commentators were constantly mentioning how they didn't like Filip's body language and how it didn't look bad. And the guy was actually winning the fight.

Besides, that wasn't the only scam back then. Just recall the replays of the best strikes. There, even in Zhang's worst round, they managed to draw only his own strike without showing anything that Hrgovic landed cleanly. I wrote about this once. If anyone doesn't remember this, they should look it up.

You can really do a lot with moves like that and also damage a fighter's career. I don't want to suggest that Moses will definitely need such help, because it may turn out that he is so brilliant that he will not need it, but I suspect that "emergency help" is already prepared in store.

 

Honestly, I felt that Hrgovic should have been stopped in the Zhang fight based on that body language. It's the fighters responsibility to defend themselves and show the ref that they're still in the fight, and there were spells where it looked like Hrgovic was out on his feet.

An incredibly dangerous habit to have against Itauma, who'll leap on him like a man possessed when he sees it.

I do agree about commentator bias though. Damn near sickening to hear most of it.

 

The British bet on hometown favorites to show support not to win money. Bruno had low odds against Tyson and so forth.

Hrgovic IMO should win and should be the favorite based on what we've seen. But at the same time these odds aren't telling us people don't think that.

 

They’re certainly taking into account the high chance of a British stoppage.

 

I don't think so. People underplay those wins, and that will show tomorrow. Itauma already mowed down McKean in just one round, who gave Hrgovic a tough night out.