I'm betting on Hrgovic, and I'm being very bold. Wilder is a sniper who doesn't do much in his fights. The Croatian would be the attacking side there. And for those suggesting that Filip would definitely be "downed" due to poor defense, I suggest remembering that Filip fought Zhang and Dubois. I don't think a bomb from Zhang would be lighter than Wilder's best punch. He withstood it all. Technically, Filip is a much better fighter. Besides, Filip, a novice professional, trained them all at Haye's camp. Wilder had an incredible weapon and excellent training, but beyond that, he was never anything special. The best name he ever defeated was Luis Ortiz. In my opinion, Ortiz was overrated, and I think he was chosen because there were some rumors, perhaps about him having "average punch resistance" or something like that. Of course, Wilder would have a chance, but he certainly wouldn't be the favorite. Wilder doesn't like to be beaten, and here he would be, quite regularly, because Hrgovic's punches would easily find him. I wouldn't be surprised if the course of their fight and its ending were quite similar to the second fight with Fury: a powerful demolition of Deontay.
I just think Hrgovic is too good of a boxer for Wilder. You are right that relying on chin is dangerous but what I would say in the Joyce example is that I suspect all this time Joyce's chin may have been a bit overrated. Triangle theories are muddy, but it says a lot when you compare both Joyce and Hrgovic's efforts against Zhang. However, in Wilder's favour he certainly could cause a bad cut in Hrgovic and quite early.
Wilder wins and easily. He can't KO Hrgovic and Filip doesn't have the mix of punches needed to keep the Bronze Bomber off him. UD Wilder.
Wilder was a bum beater. When he stepped up he lost. He literally never beat 1 HW champ (past, present, future). His best win was a 39 y/o Ortiz. Then he lost to Fury in 3 different ways. Then he got battered by Zhang and shutout by Parker, but his fanboys say Wilder was 39, so it doesnt count...but Ortiz wins were great. There was a reason Wilder didnt fight Wlad and a reason he didnt fight AJ or anyone of note during his prime.
Hrgovic is pretty slow and doesnt really hit all that hard for a big man, Wilder could potentially win a decision here if he stayed busy
Hrgovic easily. People need to accept Hrgovic is the second best heavyweight since Wladamir Klitschko
Hrgovic looked pretty good as a kiddie sparring prime Wilder. I can't help but think the real deal will take care of business.
That he is. His supposed power is overrated too. Great at knocking out tomato cans with even worse chins, but decent fighters who aren't ancient expose his fragile mandible