Suppose Ali had a strong 15th round in the FOTC

Given the judge's scorecards and being on the rounds system he needed a knockout to win

 

Ali lost the 15th and the fight which he was well behind before the 15th anyway.
Whats the point of this hypothetical? Okay let's say Ali won every round he lost in reality does that mean he really won?

Strange thread.

 

No version of Ali ever beats Joe Frazier that night

 

See, I somewhat disagree - my theory is hypothetical.

Ali in 68 or 69 would have been too seasoned for Joe and had he been able to continue fighting without the exile, even in '71, Joe wouldn't be the same Joe, and here is why:

If the exile never happens, an Ali vs. Frazier fight happens around late 1968 or 1969. You aren't just getting an Ali with his peak legs; you're also facing a version of Joe who hadn't yet fully reached his absolute prime. The frightening, seamless bob-and-weave entry Joe displayed (check his slip rate numbers!) in 1971 was perfected against Ellis and Foster. In '68/'69, Joe was slightly more open, and a continuous, prime-legs Ali outboxes that version of Frazier over 15 rounds, as I think he lands more and gets countered less.

Without the exile, the entire toxic build-up changes. In reality, Joe advocated for Ali during his ban, petitioned Nixon, and lent him money - how did Ali repay him? Well, he betrayed that goodwill and brotherhood by painting Joe as a puppet of the white establishment and a corporate sellout. That personal betrayal turned Joe, a blue-collar, proud man from an elite pressure fighter into a man possessed by pure, righteous rage.

Without the exile, there’s no narrative of Ali being the exiled folk hero and Joe being the "establishment champ." Without that deep personal anger, Joe doesn't have the intense drive to absorb all the clean hits that Ali inflicted without flinching and continuing to bully forward.

What if Ali still tried the mental warfare with prime legs?

Even if Ali tried the same dirty promotional tactics, a non-exiled Ali handles Joe's rage completely differently. In 1971, Ali's legs gassed by Round 6, forcing him onto the ropes into early "rope-a-dope" mechanics; this was absolute suicide against Joe’s body attack as despite being the best taker of body punishment that I've seen, it still affects your legs and Ali hadn't yet got, and never would get, truth be told, his legs back.

A '67 - '69 Ali with uninterrupted leg endurance stays in the center of the ring for longer. He circles more effortlessly to his own right, away from Joe’s hook and keep Joe pivotting to set his feet to throw it properly. He uses his jab and clinch work to smother Joe’s momentum before he can set his feet, retaining more energy for neutralising the pressure. He likely pulls down on the head more and doesn't get trapped against the ropes absorbing punishment as much.

Some people misremember how Ali got caught in Round 11. Ali got caught because he dropped his right hand low while trying to throw a sloppy, wide uppercut from the outside. His inability to use his legs and his diminished stamina had him throwing silly punches to try to force Joe off him. Joe saw it coming a mile off, timed him to perfection and detonated the left hook over the top.

An active, sharp Ali isn't reaching from the outside with lazy uppercuts against a fighter like Joe. He would fight a more conservative jab and control game and utilise his footwork more to minimise threat and manage distance. His reflexes, footwork, and distance control keep him out of that lethal danger zone much better than he was able to after Round 6.

Joe won the battle in '71, but that night arguably broke him. Both went to the hospital but Joe was hospitalised for weeks and never reached those heights again. Ali learnt his limitations, adapted, got better and went on an underrated run from '72 - 74. An active, prime Ali never gives Joe the emotional fuel and the exposed target to hit those heights in the first place.

 

He only had to flip two rounds. He could have simply repeated his post prime 1974 performance with a need for two thirds or so less clinching.

 

Ali at the '71 stage that he met Frazier refused to admit his athletic decline to himself and so he was trying to slug it out and KO a mission-driven great fighter.

I do think he had to be humbled in order to reach another level. Frazier fought a great fight but I do think an active Ali has better legs, paces himself better and breaks up the action, stopping Joe's momentum better.

 

Not really.

The question was if Ali had won the 15th instead of getting dropped, would that have changed the result of the fight in and of itself. The answer, based on the cards, is yes. Frazier would have won by majority decision instead of a unanimous nod and Aidala's card would only have been 8-7 in Frazier's favor. It would have been been perceived as being a closer fight than it's considered to be at this point.

 

Just some random observations which are, of course, all just imo.

Not always the perfect metric to go by but I do think the damage to Frazier’s face gave a good and accurate idea of what Ali was putting to Joe and how often he was scoring.

Conversely, Ali’s swollen right jaw told the story of how often Joe’s power left hook found a home there.

Very similar to Joe Louis’ swollen left jaw due to the many right hands he took from Max Schmeling.

Of course there was the less apparent visual legacies of Joe’s body punching also but keeping it objective, a good number of those shots were on the hips, so below the belt and technically illegal.

Ali meted a lot of punishment on Joe but commentators appeared to be giving extra credit to Joe for withstanding same atop his actual scoring punches.

I think Joe’s absorption of that punishment throughout the fight strongly comprises many people’s belief that Frazier wasn’t going to be denied that night.

Finally, I think some people perhaps view hypotheticals such as this as some attempt to take credit away from Joe but that isn’t the case at all.

Joe’s material, deserved and historic win is locked in for all time and it marked the beginning of one of boxing’s greatest rivalries.

 

Hi Buddy.
Agree entirely, and have said as much during my time on the forum, if every picture tells a story, then Frazier's face tells us how close the fight really was.
always drop into your posts, you know your boxing.
stay safe nytepfan, chat soon.
Mike.

 

For what its worth this is my scorecard below.

I had it 8-7 in rounds to Frazier but with Frazier winning by 3 points overall.

I also gave Frazier two 2 point rounds which I don't think many people do.

But remember the scoring wasn't done on the 10 point must system it was just scored on total rounds.

So Frazier got no extra points for scoring a knockdown.

I think with the scoring that was actually used the fight was very close.

But in terms of using the 10 point must system Frazier clearly won.




Muhammad Ali vs Joe Frazier 1

1 Ali
2 Ali
3 Frazier
4 Ali
5 Ali
6 Frazier
7 Frazier
8 Frazier
9 Ali
10 Ali
11 Frazier 10-8
12 Frazier
13 Frazier
14 Ali
15 Frazier 10-8

143-140 Frazier in rounds 8-7 Frazier

 

Interesting to hear other people’s views on how they might’ve scored round 11 of the FOTC under the point system.

I’m not abjectly disagreeing with the possibility of scoring 10-8 for round 11 but I personally wouldn’t score it thusly.

While I understand that a big round, even sans a KD, could in all possibility be scored 10-8, I think that material credit (or the avoidance of the immediate discredit for suffering an actual KD) for a fighter remaining upright under fire should also be considered.

I’ll have to rewatch round 11. My recollection is that Ali was most hurt by the initial left hook that clearly buckled his knees and he carried that initial hurt for a period thereafter. I think that hook landed with about 50 seconds to go in the round.

After landing that hook, Frazier did land a few more decent shots but, as it so happened, Ali’s involuntary teetering and tottering lent itself to a degree of ultimately effective evasion and provided for a measure of offsetting of Frazier’s follow up.

Of course toward the very end of the round Ali clearly feigned being on the same rubbery legs that he was on earlier in the round.

 

So if Ali won the 15th you'd have 8-7 for Ali. It was a competitive fight. I'll have to find my card, I think some of us scored it a fair wile ago.