Yes, call me crazy but I really think Holyfield is going to win. My reasoning is thus, Valuev is not a major pressure fighter or huge puncher that will drain Holyfield limited reserves. I think Valuev can be out boxed with a good jab, and is open to counters because he is so big, and at best is moderately mobile. Holyfield is old, but he remains a good counter puncher with a solid left hook. The hook is the most dangerous counter punch in the book. I also think Holyfield body punching, and jab might win some rounds. The question to me is does Holyfield 40 something body offer enough energy to do what he needs to do to win? I am saying yes, because Valuev is not a smart enough fighter to pressure the older Holyfield. I think the old warrior is going to out think and land the harder shots in route to a decision win on a fair scorecard.
Holyfield is probably the less mobile of the two now - not in literal terms, but in terms of how much he can provide in, say, round 4 - and Valuev has an excellent jab. As you say, brave pick, but I fear one that will be proven wrong.
It is a bold pick, but style wise, and tempo wise, I think Holy matches up rather well. That is why I am picking him. Valuev will not be able to win the way Ibragimov beat Holyfield. What I fear is if Holy wins, he's go after Wlad and gets hurt.
Wlad is literally the worst fighter any shot could tangle with in the history of HW boxing. Frankly, I don't think that fight would ever be allowed to happen, and if it were, I think you would see a weird, second round mercy stoppage.
He doesn't commit to the finish but he hits hard, accuratley and consistantly. A fighter who is done isn't going to get blown away, but is going to be steadily and systimatically ruined. To make things worse, Holyfield has limitless heart and a great chin. It would be like watching a kid torture a loyal dog.
I'd say a prime Golota is the worse kind of opponent...not a great finisher, not quite enough power to punch you out ASAP...but a long beatdown. Wlad hits a bit too hard for a really shot fighter to go the distance I feel. He didn't really have to try all that much to pummel Rahman easily, and there are more shot fighters than him out there. As for this fight...I just don't think Holyfield has the workrate anymore to do enough of what he needs to do. Valuev can make it a very easy night by just keeping him on the end of a jab, but even if Valuev's jab isn't so hot (like it was last time out) then timed uppercuts and draping himself all over Holyfield should still exhaust Holy into submission. He doesn't need to pressure Holyfield, he just needs to outwork him and that doesn't take much these days (which just shows how far Holy has fallen). Give me the Holyfield of even the Toney fight and I'd pick him to do it. But not now. Valuev UD.
I agree, but look at what we have in Valuev: -Has a very heavy jab that he throws pretty consistent and has been of great effectiveness in his last two fights against Liakhovic and Ruiz II. -Does not have big punching power and rarely goes for the kill -Has pretty good stamina -Can wear you out with his size To me that sounds like all the ingredients for disaster. Similar to Wlad, except he lacks big punching power and is even less aggressive. My prediction is an 8th round mercy corner/referee stoppage with Holyfield never really hurt, but badly busted up by constant jabs and the odd straight right / right uppercut, without landing anything worthwhile in return.
...I wouldn't like to see it end like that for Evander. But I know that a win just virtually guarantees him a thrashing next up. So I'd prefer a nice dull wide UD for Valuev. Holyfield can once again say he went the distance, his most hardcore fans can again try to concoct ways to make it seem like it was actually a close fight, and hopefully Holyfield realises he doesn't have the ability or time to get back in the title picture again.
I don't think you can beat a huge guy with fair skills such as Valuev by fighting passively. Holyfield will have to take the fight to him. Frankly, I think he is too old to have the energy to get the job done. He gets worn down and probably stopped late via "mercy stoppage" as some others have put it.