Firstly, lots of posters are bringing up the Cotto/Mosley fight and questioning how Mosley can beat the man who beat Cotto, when Shane got beat by Cotto. The term "styles makes fights" is used a lot but it's very relevant in this upcoming war. Shane can do things against Margarito that Cotto couldn't or maybe wasn't willing to do. True, Shane has the older legs but I don't see him wasting energy sliding along the ropes all night like Cotto did. Lets also be honest that Cotto's been hurt before and stamina has been a problem for Cotto. Combine those two possible problems against Margarito's relentless pressure and it's understandable to see how things went down in the Cotto/Margarito fight. How about lateral movement? Cotto's only lateral movement was going along the ropes all night, not to mention having to sit on the ropes as the fight went on which is because he wasted so much energy early. Head-hunting all night didn't help either. You're gonna get tired throwing bombs all night to a guy's chin when he isn't phased by them. Why did Cotto forget to use the punch he is so know for, being the left-hook to the body? I think pride got in Cotto's way and he really thought all that power he has would finally make Margarito fold. Shane has seen the fight obviously and he has one of the best and most underrated trainers in his corner, being Nazeem Richardson. Remember Nazeem trained Bernard Hopkins to two of his best masterpieces being the Tarver fight and the Pavlik fight. I see Nazeem keeping Shane's warrior mentality in check and Shane doing it because he has all the ability to and flat-out knows he must to win. The left-hook to the body and lateral movement will be the biggest keys for Shane doing what so many don't think he has a chance at doing. He also takes punches better than Cotto but I don't see it being an issue anyway because Shane won't get hit nearly as much. What about Margarito. There are the speculations that someone who takes as many shots as he does is bound to break down at some point, and that Cotto might have "softened" him up for Shane. I don't see that as a reliable variable at all, as I don't think Margarito's to that point yet but you never know. He can't get frustrated because he is going to have an opponent who is going to be much more technical than in his last fight and he is going to be missing more punches, at least certainly for the first half of the fight. He is used to that type of fight so he should be able to stay patient as long as his whole mentality isn't to go right in and take Shane out. That can back-fire as we saw it happen to Pavlik. For some reason I am getting the feeling this fight could end up like that with Shane putting on a clinic but Margarito has more experience than Pavlik. One thing that Margarito must do better against Shane than he did in the Cotto fight is cut off the ring with more success. If he doesn't, he may be down too far on points and be in a situation where he must KO Shane and that is not an easy task. Even if Shane actually gets hurt, he has better survival skills than Cotto. Margarito also got the perfect distance against Cotto whenever he wanted because Cotto let him but Shane won't let him have the opportunity all night in the same way so Margarito really may need to find some adjustments to do that because Shane won't sit on those ropes and will fight inside. It's going to be a great fight, I believe possibly even better than the Cotto/Margarito fight. I see Shane putting the first 5 or so rounds in the bank, Margarito taking some middle rounds on work-rate and aggression as Shane saves some energy by not running but turning Margarito and fighting inside where Margarito doesn't get as much steam on his punches. I think Shane's heart and skill pulls it out in the last few rounds to win on points. Margarito won't stop though so Shane has to keep his wits about him in the later rounds as he gets a bit more tired. I think some rounds will be hard to judge between Shane's better shots compared to Margarito's work-rate so I am going with a split-decision for Shane in a fight that will scream rematch even more than the Cotto fight. That's how I see it. What's everyone else's thoughts?
What's the basis for that thinking? Can you elaborate or do you believe Margarito is just invincible at this point?
The point about Nazeem Richardson is important IMO. He's about as much of a technical teacher as there is in boxing. The way him and X talk in between rounds is amazing. I wonder what tricks he will have taught Mosley. Naz, like Hopkins, looks at each fighter and goes in with a game plan to neutralize their best weapon. Marg's is his work rate and chin. I'm sure Naz will have worked on Mosley to constantly use lateral movement and turn Marg but to do it without wasting too much effort like Cotto did. As for the fight itself, i really don't have a clue. I'm just glad it's not on PPV. :good
1. Margarito is the fresher of the two. 2. Margarito is the naturally bigger between the two. 3. Margarito is the more active of the two at this point of their respective careers. 4. Margarito's chin is equal or better than Shane's. 5. IMO, Shane has never been a KO artist, at least not in the big fights I have seen him in. And I am talking about prime, not the last couple of years. 6. Margarito may come in hungrier than in the Cotto fight because he knows how long and hard the road was to get to where he is at, and I am willing to bet that he doesn't want to start all over again. 7. No one is saying he is invincible, I just think that many people are fans of his style. Comes to fight without trash talking, gives an honest effort everytime out, and comes forward willing to take three to land one. Not the prettiest style out there, but definitely gives you your money's worth.
Yeah the chemistry between Ex and Naz in the corner really impresses me. I hope Shane wins not just for Shane but for Naz. Also I think they will work on taking Margarito's left-hand away because that's where his two best punches come from. If Shane listens to Naz, he's good to go. I'm sure Bernard has stopped in and threw some of his genius into the mix as well.
1.Margarito is taller, but not any bigger. 2.Chins are equal. Margarito got more shook up at 154 than Shane has. 3.Margo can't be fresher just because of age because the way he fights negates that. Shane's taken far less punishment. 4.Shane doesn't need to KO Margo to win. That's not even an option in my breakdown unless Margarito gets hurt by a left-hook to the body or cuts. 5.Margo being crowd pleasing has nothing to do with his ability to beat Shane and Shane is crowd pleasing as well. 6.Margarito could come in hungrier but I don't see it, even if he does he can't fight any better than the Cotto fight. 7. He hasn't been much more active than Shane in recent years. Got anything else? IMO