Right now, I'd say one of two outcomes is very likely. Either Kelly stays on his ass and stops him late while behind on the cards, or Bute wins a hard fought UD. And yes, we just did this thread the other day.
Pavlik walks down Bute, breaks him down then shatters his glass jaw. Bute would not deal well with the pressure.
I don't believe for a second that Bute has a "glass jaw." However, we do know from the Andrade fight that pressure troubles him. Pavlik brings pressure on a whole different level. Like Andrade, you'd have to hit Kelly with a ball bat to get him to take the pressure off, but KP comes forward behind a sharp jab and that long left hook. It's a whole different ball game.
Bute is impressive. This would be a great fight. The type of fight where both fighters might go down, and packed with an ebb and flow. I'd lean toward Bute to win, as his speed, defense, and footwork is better.