Wlad and Haye: Detailed Analysis

I wrote this about 3 weeks ago but wanted to wait for the fight to be officially signed. Probably I should do some editing, but I'm going to leave it "as is."

I’ve decided to try my hand at an in depth analysis, I’m not sure if I’ll really be good at it or not. This will be long by necessity, so you have my thanks in advance if you read all the way through it.

Let me start by saying that I am officially a Wlad fan all around. I respect David Haye’s talent as well, but I’m not hot about his mouth. I’m okay with fighters creating hype and furor, but I feel he consistently takes it too far. I’m also more familiar with Wlad than Haye, but between what I’ve seen and read about him I should have enough fair information to be balanced. I’m using this to make my official odds of the outcome, giving my reasoning why. You’re free to disagree, but PLEASE, be civil.

We’ll start with Wlad, after all he is the heavyweight belt holder and Haye is the challenger.

Weapons for Haye to deal with: Jab, fair speed, size, a lethal right, the occasional left hook, and Emanuel Steward. Few heavyweights can say that their jab is truly a weapon in the ring. Used more in the lower weight classes, for a heavyweight to jab as often as Wlad does is pretty rare, although I remember hearing commentary (the Brock fight I believe) stating that Lennox Lewis had his best fights when he used his jab well. Haye has probably never dealt with a jab like this and it factors heavily when it comes to the battle of wills, to be discussed later.

A small aside on the Jab: I believe that Wlad’s great jab is a big part of his negative perception among fans. If his jab weren’t so good, he’d be forced to throw more power punches and thus be more exciting.

Wlad’s handspeed is good, but probably needs the addendum “for a man his size”. The general rule is that smaller fighters will have better hand speed, and Wlad is by no means small. I’m pretty sure that Haye has seen hand speed like Wlad’s before, although probably without the power behind it.

Haye has never faced a man as big as Wlad is, although he has had his taste of the heavyweight division with his victories over Bonin and Barrett. Wlad has an obvious distaste for inside fighting (and why not with his reach?), so he tends to clinch and force a reset once he gets too close to his opponent. The longer the fight goes, the more Haye will have to deal with a big strong man leaning on him. As already noted, Wlad pretty much fights on the outside, meaning Haye will have to get inside the jab or be very quick on the trigger.

Wlad’s right is a scary sight to behold when he throws it with full power. Most of the time he appears to take something off of it so he doesn’t over commit and leave himself too open. If he does throw with full power and lands flush, it will probably be over for Haye. Rarely does he throw it looping (although we saw one or two in the Rahman fight when he was covering up on the ropes), it’s almost always straight down the pipe, and pretty fast.

Wlad’s left hook is a bit of a mystery. Someone started a thread noting that he doesn’t throw it as often as he used to, and that appears to be true. When thrown, it can be about as devastating as any punch (see Ray Austin), but he just doesn’t throw it a lot. Probable cause is the counterpunching opening. I’ve noticed, at least in older fights, that Wlad would telegraph it by holding his left hand out and dropping it a couple inches 1-2 seconds before throwing the hook.

Emanuel Steward backs up Wlad, and is one smart trainer. I don’t even know who trains Haye, I should look it up.

Weapons for Wlad to deal with: Speed, power, and guts. It’s safe to say that Wlad has faced fighters with one or two of these traits in the past, but rarely someone with all three. The first name to spring to mind is, of course, Corrie Sanders who absolutely dominated him.

Speed is at a premium amongst the heavyweights. When I try to think of heavyweights with fast hands I don’t come up with a whole lot. “Fast” Eddie Chambers, Shannon Briggs, and now I’m pretty much out of ideas. While Haye has to get around the jab, if he pulls the trigger well he can definitely get to Wlad in a hurry, something Wlad hasn’t seen as much lately.

Power Haye has in abundance. These are big men that we’re talking about so all of them hit pretty hard, but some rise above the rest. Wlad of course does, but so does Haye, and when that shows up, knockdowns happen.

Guts also can be a rare thing to see, especially when a man is facing a guy as big and strong as Wlad. We’ve seen other fighters go into survival mode against Wlad (Brewster II, Rahman for example), unwilling to really take chances and get the return fire. The downside to guts is that when power shows up and meets it, knockdowns happen. But I think we have nothing to fear about Haye at least trying to knock Wlad out.

Potential downsides for Wlad: Chin, stamina, and the past. All three of these are real question marks for Wlad, because they could rise up to be serious problems. Or they could be nothing but fantasies in the minds of the haters if Wlad has resolved the issues.

Everyone here knows that Wlad can be knocked down if he’s hit well. The problem for the opponents is that with the changes (yes I know, “boring”) to his style it’s been a while since he really was hit well, that being the Peter fight in 2005 when we went down three times. With the weapons that Haye brings to the table, it’s quite possible that we will see this happen. Give Wlad credit where due however: He always has gotten up in the past.

Wlad appears to have solved his stamina issues that plagued him in the past (Purrity, Brewster I), but there are always lingering doubts. He went the full 12 with Iggy, but I’m told neither man really engaged in that fight, and was into 11 with Thompson, who was at least engaged for a while before appearing to give up. Given the power both men are bringing to the table, this fight probably won’t last all that long, so it most likely is a non-factor this time.

The past and the mental aspect is huge, and it’s fair to question Wlad on it. After all, the last time he faced a man with speed, power and guts he got wasted, shouldn’t he fear the same happening again? Countering this is the probability that Wlad is incensed with Haye and his antics and is genuinely angry with his foe as we have heard hints of in past articles. How Wlad deals with the mental issues will be a huge factor in this fight and a big plus for Haye.

Potential downsides for Haye: Chin, stamina, and the low left hand. Two of these are familiar, the third differs for Haye.

Haye himself has admitted that if he gets caught flush he will go down, and the past backs that up. I really think the knockdown issue is overrated for both men, again these are big guys hitting hard.

Haye’s stamina has also been called into question, mostly from when he fought his Thompson. He also should be given some benefit of the doubt, it was a while ago in his career. I have heard, however, that for someone as heavily muscled as him getting enough oxygen is a real issue.

I’ve read that Haye holds his left hand low to get better positioning and speed on his jab and hook. He seems to have gotten away with it thus far, but playing with fire long enough usually will get you burned. Wlad is a headhunter, so Haye would be wise to protect it.

Part two in next post.

 

Part two:

Lefties and righties: This is where things really get interesting in the analysis, because Wlad has looked his worst against left-handed fighters not named Chris Byrd. Sanders, for all the attributes Haye brings, is a leftie, something that Haye cannot duplicate unless he’s planning some kind of Rocky move. In terms of getting hit hard and fast, Sanders is our winner. In terms of getting hit overall, Thompson got him the most of anyone. In terms of making Wlad look awkward, apparently Ibragimov gets the nod.

To be fair we must include Purrity and Brewster in the equation as both are right-handed. Both beat Wlad essentially the same way: Get hit by everything but the kitchen sink and keep coming. It would be nothing short of disaster for Haye to try this approach, so it’s a non-factor for this fight.

The battle of wills: Who is going to be the boss out there? Whoever is the boss is almost guaranteed to win, barring a lucky punch. Lefties and righties comes right back to the discussion, because lately just about right-hander who has faced Wlad has followed the same formula: Get hit by the jab a bunch of times and give up trying to win the real estate war. Then stay too far away to hit Wlad with any conviction, but right at the distance he wants you to be. Get inside and receive a clinch forcing you back outside. Get beaten to a pulp slowly and painfully (or take 3 left hooks quickly). Collect paycheck and go home. If Wlad can accomplish this, he administers said beating and Haye cries all the way to the bank.

Haye’s job is to break this mold and force Wlad to fight his fight: In just a little closer where Wlad can’t get full power but Haye can, and not let the fight be stopped over and over by clinching which will wear him down. To do this, he has to get by the jab using good footwork and head movement (I must confess I do not know how good either are for Haye), then make his speed kill Wlad, preferably to the body. If Haye can do this, he wins by KO, probably quickly.

The only other possibility is a firefight where both men unload. This is most likely if Wlad lets his anger get the best of him and he goes after Haye rather than sticking with his usual game plan, or if Haye rushes in and tries heavy pressure. In this scenario whoever lands flush first wins.

Big questions remain. Do Haye’s weapons have what it takes to force Wlad out of his game plan or is Wlad too big and disciplined to be deterred?

Side notes: These don’t really have a place elsewhere. I am one of those who does not feel that Haye is too small to be a heavyweight. He always lost weight to get down to cruiserweight, and it’s not like he’s had to lose fat. At 6’3” he’s got enough height to be a solid heavyweight.

I think it’s scary how Wlad usually doesn’t punch at full power yet still racks up the KOs.

I keep hearing that Haye is really a nice guy, but loves to make the hype with his call outs. I really hope that’s true because he’s upset me with his words. I prefer guys who let their fists do the talking, and if they talk they’ve gotta back it up.

Predictions: I don’t think only one prediction is fair as each man does have a chance to win, so I have it by percentages.

60% Probability: Wlad TKO around round 8. Until proven otherwise, I have to assume that Wlad’s game plan will force Haye to fight his fight, and Wlad will gladly hand out the sustained punishment that doesn’t look as good to fans, but does more long-term damage to the other guy.

35% Probability: Haye TKO round 2 or 3. Haye’s speed and power definitely scares me, he has his chance.

5% Probability: Either man huge KO in a firefight.

0% Probability: Decision. Yeah right this goes 12 rounds. Someone is going down hard, maybe both men throughout the fight.

I really believe that the fact that Haye is right-handed really will be his undoing. Were he a leftie like Sanders, I would probably favor him over Wlad because of the added awkwardness that it brings.

 

Wow this has gone better than I thought, thanks guys. Course I'm pretty sure certain people have gone to bed as I should.