A quote I can appreciate. It's not always about who you necessarily think is going to win in one trial, it's all about the value. The way I see it... let's say a dog is 4-1 for your money, but you feel like on the dog's best night he could pull the upset over the favorite once in 2 or 3 attempts, then the correct play is taking the dog. A good example... When Carl Davis Drummond fought Chagaev I took 9-1 on Drummond. I certainly didn't think Drummond would win the fight on a normal night, but Chagaev was coming off a super long layoff and had dealt with mad health problems. Drummond was an unknown quantity but given the circumstanes I felt their was a solid chance that maybe Chagaev would get injured and maybe quit on his stool, etc. Ironically I was right that the fight ended on odd circumstances (accidental butt & Chagaev won on the cards) but obviously I didn't win the bet. I still felt I made the correct play and would have taken Drummond at 9-1 a million times over in a similar situation. It's all about value.
Exactly. It's why this line raises a red flag in my mind. IMO +260 isn't enough to make a sheer value play on Clottey, but it's a slightly wider line than I was expecting. I was curious what the reaction around here would be.
i think cotto will win but ill get a little action on those odds. who knows how much cotto has after margarito.
Yeah, that's what I was thinking. I got a couple hundred I can lose just in case Cotto does his nut-punching routine after Clottey taps that china chin.
Important: If one is betting on Clottey straight up, is it better to take the bait now, or will the odds get even richer as the fight nears? It seems to me Cotto has all the fans and they may bet him down even cheaper as we saw with the Hatton/Mayweather line. Mayweather went from like -280 all the way to -200 the morning of the fight, and naturally was back to -280 before the opening bell. Anyway, should Clottey bettor's take the bait now, or wait?