Cotto beats Pac: Deep Analysis

lern1079 · Jun 26, 2009

DobyZhee said: ↑

How can you say his analysis is not deep at all when you wrote only 2 sentences as a rebuttal?atsch

I liked what the thread starter had to say. Its a very decent analysis but he's missing some things that are going to play in on the fight. the deep cut, cotto's chin, cotto's questionable punch resistance (Clottey and Mag *** weren't going to capitalize on Cotto's shaky chin) and the biggest factor: lack of a trainer. I predict his trainer will be Manny Steward. The guy has watched every pac fight. He knows pac's pac as a fighter up close and will be able to capitalize on pac's flaws. Will he or any trainer be good enough to make a game plan against Pac? remains to be seen.
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Your points about chin and "questionable punch resistance" were addressed in a sense as the big question mark. I said what we don't know is how well each will react to each others power. Pac is a strong puncher but so is Cotto. And Pac is yet to be hit by a real WW.

So there's little to compare in regards to chin.

In regards to the trainer I think that there is a certain point that a fighter reaches that you are not really going to change him. Cotto was going into the fight with the new trainer for the first time so this time around he wont really be new.

I don't like Emmanuel Steward for Cotto.

lern1079 · Jun 26, 2009

Tettsuo said: ↑

Pac and Roach are probably working on those uppercuts as we speak!
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True, but the uppercut is not a punch that Manny throws consistantly. I don't think that it will be a big factor in this fight. Before the 1st EM fight they were working on the R hook and it probably didn't see any improvement until the 2nd Morales fight.

wuzupman · Jun 26, 2009

lern1079 said: ↑

I am going to go with Cotto. The Pacman nuthuggery is out of control. I like Pac I think he is an exciting fighter and is good for the sport of boxing. Pac has brought his speed and power but I don't believe that his speed at 145 is going to be the same as at the lower levels. I think he is still a strong puncher. Let's look at his last fights. 1. Beating DLH was a great achievement but the fact that he was weight drained puts a tarnish on it, being the bigger man and the better skilled boxer means nothing when you have no energy to do anything. Although DLH face showed some swelling I didn't see DLH being hurt by Pac. 2. The Hatton fight I was impressed with the KO cause it was one for the highlight reels. However, you can see that Hatton's chin first approach and weak punch resistance leaves much to be desired. I mean PBF puts him on his ass going backwards, he was almost KO by light handed Collazo and was in trouble against career lighteweight lazcano. Hatton was then placed against light hitting Malignaggi and puts on a good performance that kinda gave people the impression that Hatton was coming back strong. Diaz was just a walking punch bag cause he didn;t offer much of anything and he got a controversial decision against Morales when Morales was at the tailend of his career. The 2nd JMM fight many people feel he lost.

That being said, let's look at Cotto's last few fights. Clottey is an underrated boxer yet he is a top WW. The hardcore fans of the sport know this. He is also considered a big WW due to the amount of weight he rehydrates himself too. The knock on Clottey is that he seems to tire in the late rounds, but that seems to be the knock on Cotto so it would all even out. Cotto fought most of the fight with blood pouring into his eye. Some people feel that Clottey won but after looking at most press side scoring, scoring the fight myself and looking at forums it was seen as a Cotto victory by most. The Jennings fight was a gimme. The Margo fight was viewed as a tough fight by all and it was. Margo's tough chin and pressure is tough for most to deal with. Although the victory is tainted due to the plaster incident in the Mosley fight margarito did well to expose one of Cotto's flaws which is the suceptibility to the uppercut. The Gomez fight was a gimme and although Gomez has been in the ring with 160/168 lbs and go the distance Cotto was able to put him away. The Mosley fight he boxed nicely off the jab picking his spots.

Size advantage-Cotto
Although there is negligible height difference and arm length the size advantage goes to Cotto. Cotto will probably be bigger but I don't think it would be over 10 lbs. Where the size advantage comes into play is that Cotto's size and weight and his experience in the ring against bigger man will add to his punch resistance and having dealt with bigger stronger men.

Speed-Pac
I think this is quite obvious that in the speed department it is Pac that holds the biggest card. However, Cotto's handspeed/footspeed are very deceptive.

Timing- Cotto
I think that Cotto has superb timing in his punches and if there is anything that can offset speed, it's timing.

Defense-Cotto
I have to give Cotto the edge because overall he is more defensively astute. He has great evasive manuevers with this body and knows how to circle and fight of the backfoot. Although he is suseptible to uppercuts I think overall he has more defensive tools than Pac. Pac's offense is his defense. Pac has a jerky side-to-side movement that works for him but he can't fight going back defensively or otherwise. Cotto get's the not on defense for more versatility in this department.

Ring Genarlship-Cotto
I think Cotto uses the ring better overall because he fights going forward and coupled that with his defensive abilities he has greater ring generalship.

Power- Pac
I will hesitantly go with Pac, and I say this carefully, because his power cannot be ignored but yet I think it is still untested at the WW limit. I also have to acknowledge that Cotto has power but we have seen Pac KO opponents in a more devistating fashion and although his power is untested at WW he will get the nod in the power department.

What we don't know is how Cotto will handle Pac's power and vice versa.

The arguments are being made that Pac will be too much for Cotto to handle. Let's put this into perspective. Pac is not the whirlind of punching that he used to be nowadays he is more measured in his aggression. If you notice the way he knocked out hatton was because hatton carelessly leaves his chin in the air and was carelessly aggressive. The KD in the 2nd JMM fight was due to Marquez agressively jumping in and got caught. Diaz was too slow to do anything. Cotto doesn't jump in on really lunges with his punches.

The pace of the fight will be one that Cotto will be comfortable with. Many people feel that Pac is going to pressure Cotto but the thing is that Manny throws punches in flurries but he doesn't provide the constant pressure of a Margarito or even Clottey to an extent. I think that with Cotto's educated jab and footwork he will beat Pac. However, it would be foolish to say that Pac doesn't have the power to turnt he fight around. I just don't think that Cotto will commit the mistakes that others have made. If you look at the Barrera 2 and JMM 2 with a measured pace and not too overly agressive style you can avoid getting caught with something big.

This is Cotto's PR style is somewhat different than the come forward mexican style. So even in the styles makes fights I think Cotto will win.
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this is one of the first time that cotto fought someone with the same arm reach or more in a while that could be the difference

DobyZhee · Jun 26, 2009

lern1079 said: ↑

True, but the uppercut is not a punch that Manny throws consistantly. I don't think that it will be a big factor in this fight. Before the 1st EM fight they were working on the R hook and it probably didn't see any improvement until the 2nd Morales fight.
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that uppercut is something that can't be learned. I would LOVE to see Pac throw an effective uppercut. A new weapon in Pac's arsenal would be lovely.

mking · Jun 26, 2009

DobyZhee said: ↑

that uppercut is something that can't be learned. I would LOVE to see Pac throw an effective uppercut. A new weapon in Pac's arsenal would be lovely.
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That would win him the fight early, since Cotto is a sucker for uppercuts, I think conditioning will be a major factor as well.

eraser122 · Jun 26, 2009

songcry said: ↑

Cotto cannot win a descion over Pac...too much money involved in a pac/PBF mega fight..cottos gnna have to knock pac out..if cotto dosent stutter step in like he did with jennings and clottey he stops pac late.

P.S The one exception here is if cotto gets cut like he did against clottey he won't last PAC won't fade and he"ll jump on him at the sight of blood.
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I agree that Cotto can't win by decision, but not because of the reason you put down.

It's a big assumption that Pac's workrate is going to be greater than Cotto, but I'll make it. And Pac is definitely going to land a lot, because Cotto isn't the slickest out there. Pac can sustain that workrate for 12 rounds, even though he's a bit more calculated in his aggression than he was a while back.

Goodness knows how long Cotto's cut above the eye is going to take to heal, and Pac could very well target that all night long with straight lefts. If he reopens that cut, or just punches that eye closed like against De La Hoya, then Cotto will have even more problems mounting an offense against Pacquiao.

Cotto's best bet is to T/KO Pacquiao within 7 or 8. If not, he won't win.

Windigo · Jun 26, 2009

DobyZhee said: ↑

that uppercut is something that can't be learned. I would LOVE to see Pac throw an effective uppercut. A new weapon in Pac's arsenal would be lovely.
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ceebz · Jun 26, 2009

Wow, I would give Pac the edge in timing, defense and ring generalship.

Pac is so disgustingly underrated on this forum; it's unbelievable. I'm not saying Cotto can't win this fight, but, Pac is by far, the more complete fighter.

AdiC · Jun 26, 2009

lern1079 said: ↑

Dude you didn't even know that Mosley fought at lightweight so your sarcastic humor needs to find itself out of my threads.
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Where did I say that, Link please? Dont try to make things up to make you look good, That PATHETIC!:nono

AdiC · Jun 26, 2009

lern1079 said: ↑

True, but the uppercut is not a punch that Manny throws consistantly. I don't think that it will be a big factor in this fight. Before the 1st EM fight they were working on the R hook and it probably didn't see any improvement until the 2nd Morales fight.
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Ofcourse Manny doesnt throw uppercuts consistently because it depends on the opponent. If roach finds the weakness on Cotto, they will work on that.

hmm · Jun 26, 2009

hmm says... Cotto should have more natural power, but punching power between the two is anyone's guess. I would have to disagree with some of your points... actually most....

AdiC · Jun 26, 2009

hmm said: ↑

hmm says... Cotto should have more natural power, but punching power between the two is anyone's guess. I would have to disagree with some of your points... actually most....
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Pac-Mania says.... what hmm says....

hmm · Jun 26, 2009

hmm says... not trying to bring the TS down, the other posters have brought up valid points as a good counter argument. I guess it's just all in the eye of the beholder.

Godfather · Jun 26, 2009

One of two things -

Pac UD due to his better workrate, or

Cotto very late TKO

lern1079 · Jun 26, 2009

Pac-Mania said: ↑

Where did I say that, Link please? Dont try to make things up to make you look good, That PATHETIC!:nono
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Pac-Mania said: ↑

So tell me, Was the speed the same?
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Why would you ask me about the speed if you knew how fast Mosley was and you can look back at the initial post that started me into replying to your posts. Click on the "So tell me was the speed the same? quote to refresh your memory.

I have no reason to make things up.

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