Pavlik by late KO, Bute tends to run out of gas and the pressure Pavlik will put on him will get him tired as the fight goes. Bute might lead early but I see the fight changed in the 2nd half with Pavlik doing more damage and hurting Bute numerous times.
The only is question is whether Bute's chin can stand up to Pavlik's punch in the later rounds, when he's running out of gas. Against Andrade, Bute lost focus in the last round, got in trouble and was exhausted. He cannot do thesame against a deadly puncher like the Ghost. Outside of this, I am fairly confident Bute keeps Kelly on the outside and uses him as a punching bag, with crisp combinations. In terms of skill, Bute is one or two classes higher than KP.
I'd say pavlik. btw wheres that guy who thought gary lockett was the greatest fighter of this era? did he get banned becuz that guy was halarious