pavlik-williams

Paulie UD.

 

Pavlik KO 8. Too strong. Williams dominates smaller men- much smaller men. He's a flawed fighter otherwise. Against someone who's the same size, but with superior power, he will be broken down.

 

I love both fighters.

Im going to favor Pavlik though.

 

Pav by 7KO.

 

I think and have thought all along that Williams was all wrong for Pavlik.

Let me break down my analysis for ya (forgive me, Im long winded sometimes)...

His footspeed and movement are things that Pavlik has never dealt well with...and was honestly one of the main reasons for him not being able to get off vs Hopkins. How well does he deal with a fighter who is faster, moves almost as well as Benard and has phenominal head movement to help negate Kelly's great jab?

His output is also insane for a man of his size. Now I know Kelly likes to throw alot of punches as well...but honestly he throws nowhere NEAR what Paul does...and Pavlik has always felt most comfortable basing that output off of his jab against opponents who like to fight in front of him. Again, Paul's head movement is enough to take a little luster off of Kelly's jab (tho it will still be marginally effective, because honestly, its one of the better pistons in boxing), which automatically cuts that output down, as well as the movement reducing it further. Add in the fact that for the first time really ever, Kelly will not have the reach advantage...and that Paul still throws 5/7/10 punch combos while on the move (he is so ****ing effectively awkward its insane)...and I dont think Kelly can come close to outworking him.

Another thing is, I have never seen Williams hurt, not once. Not to say Kelly cant be the first to do it...because even with Margo's bricks...Kelly is still the biggest puncher Paul has faced in his life. The point is, Paul can take more of Pavlik's punishment that most have in the past (maybe all outside of Bernard)...and with my theory on what will happen to Kelly's output...this is not a good thing for the MW champ. And on the flipside of that, Pavlik has shown that he can be hurt by fighters who are not known as power punchers (Taylor, Hopkins)...tho I dont think Paul hits as hard as Taylor at MW did, I do know that he will hit Kelly ALOT more often than Jermain did...so the question is, how will that effect the outcome, or more importantly, again, Kelly's output.

One more thing that scares me is something I really dont like to touch upon normally in breakdowns...and that is health issues. After Bernard's masterful performance vs Kelly, his handlers, himself and his fans said he was sick and injured. After his lackluster win over Rubio the last time, his handlers, himself and his fans again stated that his health (or more accurately injuries) was again a driving force in his lack of performance. With this fight, or proposed fight getting closer and closer, whats to say that he will be 100% that night? I know all indications are that he is, but I am sorry, leading up to the Hopkins fight, all indications were that he was...as well as the Rubio fight. This HAS to be included...and has to be a worry. Especially when Paul on the other hand is a freak of nature when it comes to conditioning.

Finally, I want to end with this. In my breakdown of Pavlik - Hopkins, I pointed something out that I noticed watching the last Taylor fight. When his opponent moves alot, especially when they show Pavlik any sort of angle, Kelly does not throw. I thought I was mistaken, until I watched more tape on him...and sure enough, if he is unable to set his feet, he does not throw punches. Hopkins exploited the hell out of this in their fight, by switching not only the direction of his movement, but constantly switching the angles he showed him...which didnt allow Kelly to...and pardon my language..."DOUBLE THE ****ING JAB!!!". Like I said earlier, Paul, tho he doesnt have as high a ring intellect that Bernard does, he is smart in there with his movement (at least he has since he cut out that crap of moving straight backwards...really his progression as a fighter has been amazing). He will be using his movement...and he will use it well. How well will determine just how much that again that workrate will diminish from Kelly.

Im sorry to all the Pavlik fans out there, but I see this fight being VERY one-sided. Williams by WIDE UD.

 

Pavlik is alot more flawed than Williams. Williams wins a hard fought ud.

 

Pav by KO. To many body shots. PW will not take the power.

 

I just hope the bookies don't get a wind of your very thoughtful analysis...


Seriously, I don't want to discredit Kelly, because, despite all the **** I talk about him, I think he is a great fighter. He has worked hard to get where he is, and seems like a real decent guy. I just think he is too limited when it comes to making adjustments in the ring, and I think his power and chin are slightly overrated.



Paul has been itching to get after Kelly, and it's not completely about money. He sees something in Kelly that makes him completely willing to take his chances. And I think it's exactly what you mentioned: Kelly's lack of ability to fire punches without being set. Pav will be the one who's workrate declines in this fight - not Paul, as many have suggested. Paul will fire away relentlessly from every angle imanginable, except right in front of him, all without allowing Pav to get set. And he will do it constantly throughout the fight. Plus he knows how to clinch (unlike JT). Now... Pav will hit Paul a few times, but it won't be enough. Paul's chin is good enough to withstand a decent amount of Pav's punishment. All this talk of Paul "dying in the ring" or "life-threatening injuries" or "seriously being hurt permanently" against Pav is a bunch of embellishment nonsense. He has sparred some really heavy-hitting guys, and he knows he is more than capable of taking Pav's shots.



By the way, Thanks for being one of the few other people to recognize the FACT that paul has never been hurt in the ring (not even the mythical 11th Round "***** Street" he supposedly was on against Margo)



PW 9-3. :smoke

 

I've got Paul Williams winning with a wide UD. Pavlik after 3 rounds will realize this is Bernard Hopkins all over again. Williams will be throwing punches in Pavlik's face all night and he will use lateral movement that makes Pavlik look silly. Williams in a very one sided fight.

 

Sue's 2nd is normally a great poster, but he lost me at "phenomonal head movement." I honestly stopped reading at that point, because anything based on the idea that Williams has "phenomoal head movement" is inherently flawed. Right now PW is a sitting duck for Pavlik's jab. And it's mediocre head movement and a the low right hand that make that true. You cannot, you MUST NOT, let KP get his jabbing working. If you do, the right-hand is soon to follow, and shortly after that, you're slumped in a corner wondering how the **** this one dimensional plodder just knocked you the **** out.

If Paul learns to keep his freaking hands up, he'll set a record by being the first middleweight to make it into the 10th round with KP. If he uses his normal guard, he won't see the end of 7. Winky buzzed PW. Pavlik will do a hell of a lot more than buzz him.

 

Fights on Youtube.

Point out the round and the time or STFU!!!

He surprised paul with a well-timed punch. But he was not hurt or stunned. Not even close.

 

boo, go and watch the Winky and Phillips fights. Like I mentioned about his footwork and movement, its ridiculously improved...as his head movement now. Vs Winky, it allowed him to make Winky miss over and over again with his own stellar jab (which I know we both can agree is one of the best of this era). Trust me bro, you know how much I love watching and disecting fights...Paul Williams head movement is now one of his biggest strengths.

Watch the HBO highlight of this fight...in it, Wright throws 9 jabs, all miss because of Williams head movement. He also attempts to 6 throw counter left hooks, two of which land because of Williams head movement. 2 out of 15 in a highlight, you normally ignore as we both know you dont judge a fight on punch stats...but if you look at the overall punch stats, it shows more of the same.

Anyway, the vid...

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Like I said, his head movement is not only improved, but at this point, its amazing. Never thought I would say that about the guy who use to go straight back and stationary on defense, but it honestly says alot about his work ethic and his want to improve. I really think in Williams, we may be witnessing something special man...and I normally dont use that word to describe fighters.

 

sues2nd summing everything up for me very nicely

and boo why you making up lies dog... winky never shook williams for ****