If Taylor wants to leave Germany a winner, he better make sure he get's it done inside the distance. But I don't see that happening. I think Taylor has started the slide.....I'm sorry to say it cos I like him, but there it is.
I think this will be a really interesting fight. I seem to be one of the few that thinks Taylor still has a lot to offer. If he'd held on for 14 seconds more in his last fight, he'd be a world champion at SMW. It's all if's and but's i know, but it shows just how close he was to becoming world champ again. I was impressed with Taylor in the first 6 or 7 rounds against Froch, he looked quick, smooth, good defence, good gameplan and showed good power. It could well be that the fight pans out in a similar way to the Froch fight with Taylor outworking AA for the first half of the fight and then being a few rounds ahead. The question then is if Taylor will fall to pieces again, or actually keep up a decent level of performance in the later rounds.
Two things. First, Abraham will have a considerably shorter reach than Froch. That will mean he has to move more to go in and out. However, that is his game anyways, he had no problem doing it with an even taller and faster Ikeke. Second, Froch is WAY slower than Abraham, and has a very crude approach to getting his shots off. Abraham fights in spurts and bursts, firing suddenly 4, 5, 7 hands, entirely unpredictable. He will not be as open as Froch to counters, although Abraham cannot afford to give away easy shots to his head like he did in recent fights, feeling his opponent cannot hurt him. Froch lives off strength, workrate and chin. He has a crude setup and telegraphes from the beach. His height and reach makes that possible, albeit needing a fading, tiring opponent to get effective. Abraham does not have that problem, but needs to go longer ways. Probably entirely different fight, other than Abraham and Froch having strength on their side. I think Abraham even has the harder punch. In the end, it's up to Taylor how clever he fights. I don't think he gets away from old habits, that means, he will fall into habits in the middle of the fight. That is when Abraham will explode, and if he connects too often, Taylor will not make it to the final bell. This is a fight where Abraham can showcase his skills in LANDING his punches, not wasting too many. He has that wide finishing hook he throws sometimes to test whether his opponent is still wary enough to duck them, then it looks funny how he misses by a mile. When they tire, like Ikeke did after 5 rounds, they begin to land. If he lands one flush, his opponent goes down, just look at Miranda.
It's all about Taylor here and whether he can dodge the big shots, which I think he can. I still think Taylor has enough left to even win this whole competition. A big question is how moving up will effect Abraham's workrate, he's always been a slowish guy who throws bombs - was that because of the weight or is that juts his style? Is he going to be more prepared at this weight and throw more punches? If so, Taylor may be done.
I never completely bought into Abraham's weight issues. Now that I've seen pics of him standing with a group of real super middleweights I don't buy into it AT ALL. It is not a coincidence that all the whining about weight became louder than ever at exactly the same time Sauerland started planning this tournament.
I never bought into that Pavlik is drinking drama. It's no coincidence that all that whining about him having had problems with his health and how he has mental problems became louder only after a 43 years old senior citizen handed him his ass as if he was an amateurish schoolboy sparring with a champion fighter. He simply ISN'T any better than that.
In the end, it's up to Taylor how clever he fights. I don't think he gets away from old habits, that means, he will fall into habits in the middle of the fight. That is when Abraham will explode, and if he connects too often, Taylor will not make it to the final bell. This is a fight where Abraham can showcase his skills in LANDING his punches, not wasting too many. He has that wide finishing hook he throws sometimes to test whether his opponent is still wary enough to duck them, then it looks funny how he misses by a mile. When they tire, like Ikeke did after 5 rounds, they begin to land. If he lands one flush, his opponent goes down, just look at Miranda.[/quote] Interesting and precise view on the outcome of the fight.:good
The doubters will become believers.JT will beat AA fairly convincingly,he may even win by stoppage.Too many fools watching reruns of the Pavlik and Froch fights.Taylor is no bum,he can box,he can fight,and contrary to popular belief he can take a shot.
Abraham will lose the first 3-4 rounds. Then the question will be if Taylor gasses or can keep up speedy footwork. Abraham is a great counter puncher that loves a guy that comes at him. If Taylor can keep on the outside and collect points from the distance without getting tagged he can win this. He was to be quick on his feet and in top notch stamina/conditioning. Remember Abraham has never fought at SMW & has rarely if ever faced competition anywhere close to Taylors level.
AND, Abraham has what in common with Froch and Pavlik????? Styles make fights. On that level AA has almost nothing in common with Froch or Pavlik. Most people miss it, but to this very day I would argue that Pavlik beat Taylor with his jab. To hell with all those right hands. Neutralize the jab, and most of those right hands go away. Taylor, who has a great jab himself, thought he could win a jabbing contest with KP, but he was wrong. Abraham's jab ranks somewhere between pathetic and non-existant. If a guy starts jabbing the **** out of AA he just covers up. One thing Froch and Pavlik have in common is that in most cases the more you beat on them, the more aggressive they get. You can find exceptions to that, but in most cases it's true. That's how Froch got that desperation KO. And, in KP/JT I, Kelly threw 60 freaking punches in that infamous 2nd round! When you start beating on Abraham, he covers up and hides in a corner. It's also true that AA SUCKS against tall fighters. Ya, he beat Ikeke, but come on, if he approached a world class guy the same way, it would take Sauerland and Wegner a week to find all the parts to Arthur's head! It was Simon's height, reach, and jab that troubled Arthur Abraham. I personally believe that Jermain Taylor is at least 2 rounds better than LuJaun ****ing Simon, and that is all he needs for a win. My only big question is "How much does JT have left in the tank?"
I don't have a problem with people picking AA to win. I think there are good reasons for thinking Jermain may be ruined, and if he is, Abraham has a good chance. I do have a problem with certain assumptions people make. The interent myth that Abraham is some kind of invincible monster is down right silly. The best fighter on his resume' is Edison Miranda, and it took AA 16 rounds spread over two fights to score one decisive win. Ward and Pavlik fought Miranda one time, and left no doubts about who the boss was. The blind assumption that Abraham will knock Taylor out is based more on faith than facts. Guys like Simon, Shannon Taylor, and Jantuah made 12 rounds with Abraham. Simon's previous fight was a guy McKart beat at 168 after a 19 month lay off. Shannon Taylor came off a TKO loss to Raymond Joval straight into a title fight with AA, and made the distance. Ouma, not exactly your power puncher, stopped Jantuah, but Jantuah went 12 with AA. Abraham stopping Taylor is a possibility, but it is NOT a given. Abraham MUST have a KO, or knock JT down a couple times to win. There is no guarantee he can do either.
I think you're forgetting that the fight's in Germany. If anything JT must have a KO, or knock AA down a couple times to win. The judges in Germany will give AA a round if he only lands five punches and JT lands twenty five.