Where your theory falls flat on its face is the part where Mikkel signed up to fight 5 of the best SMW's out there (this does not include Miranda, your hero, I should add). If it was Kessler that 'ducked' Miranda why on earth would he have the balls to fight these men? Don't let logic or objectivity spoil your fun though...
I would say level but Kessler has a chance to put Pavlik out of his league by winning the Super 6. Belts may not mean much but Kessler is a 3 time champion and has beaten world champions in Manny Siaca, Anthony Mundine, Markus Beyer, Eric Lucas and has beaten a top contender in Librado Andrade and beaten respectable opponents in Dimitri Sartison and Danilo Haussler. And it is utter rubbish to think that he ducked Edison Miranda why would you go to Wales to fight Joe Calzaghe but duck Miranda I can't remember where but I read a story about that topic and it is clear after reading it that he didn't duck Miranda. Perdomo is his mandatory and on paper his worst opponent since winning a title but it is not all bad because it gets the ring rust off and should allow him to keep the title (if he wins) throughout the tournament.
Both lost to future HOFers, Pavlik's notable wins are Jermain Taylor who is on a downward spiral, and Kessler showing his skills against andrade. In my opinion, even presently but with the SMW tournament no doubt it will be Kessler.
I think the tourney may not turn out as 'super' as what is being hoped for. Two prospects, a middle weight who has lost 2 of 3 at SMW, a middle weight that has yet to fight at the elite level, a guy who's claim to fame is being able to beat a guy that is know for fading and the Dane that hasn't boxed for a while and may not box if his 'former/current' promoter has his way. Saurland set this up to show case HIS two top talents.
Kessler's had maybe the single greater fight (Calzaghe, past prime but having to dig down deeper than he has since...well...anybody remember him having to dig down the deep? - and by that same token Pavlik fought a past-prime but amazing clock-turned-back version of Hopkins, so single best match is close...) but overall it's Pavlik right now and that's not even debateable. After 2011, that very well may change.
Pavlik by far Pavlik is the undisputed champ in his division now that AA is moving up, something Kessler never was. Pavlik's resume edges Kessler's with the Taylor wins and Pavlik probably has made much more $ than Kessler through out their careers so far.
Kessler is over-rated as hell, he wussed out against a guy (miranda) that Kelly easily ko'd:deal... Who is the best fighter kessler has beaten???? Pavlik has beaten better fighters by far:deal, and he's half a decade younger to boot... Kessler is best known for being Joe Calzaghe's whipping boy,, **** kessler..