i agree. i mean i really like both fighters, seem like genuinely good dudes but paulie has to run and execute a perfect game plan to take this. As has been stated, Paulie has NOTHING to hold diaz off with. Look at what diaz did to marquez, who is no duran but still has pop. Diaz walked right through everything for the first four rounds. imagine being in a fight where you have NO chance of knocking the guy out? With no chance of even hurting him? You have to out box the **** out of him and if Paulie gets into deep enough of a points hole, he knows he can't punch his way out and knock diaz out. It's a horrible feeling. Diaz uses the jab more consistently than hatton typically does and I see him working his way in and ****ing mauling paulie. TKO 10
Paulie just ain't been same since Cotto. Lost his swagger & it's shown in the ring. While I'm picking Diaz by TKO-10 / 116-112 UD. I don't know what the latest odds are but maybe Malignaggi would be a pretty decent bet to invest in, in a plethora of other bets which cover each other. $$$
I'll go with paulie winning by a SD or UD but i won't be surprise if diaz workrate wins it for him. He does throw a lot of punches but paulie has better defense than most of diaz past opponents. Paulie has the speed too to beat diaz to the punch.