Now that Pavlik vs Williams is official

Pavlik/Taylor II was at SMW (166 actually) not 160.

In your previous posts you ignored a number of factors. For one thing, I think you may have exagerated ideas of the reach difference. The actual arm length difference is 1", same as Miranda. Paul can't simply "box on the outside" without getting hammered.

Another thing is handspeed; Paul's hands aren't any faster than Taylor's and KP countered the **** out of JT in their 2nd fight.

Also you made no allowances for the difference in size and physical strength. In spite of the height, Paul still makes a small middleweight, and Pavlik terrorizes small middleweights.

The work rate issue should be a non-starter. EVERY time we've seen Kelly against someone who throws a lot, Kelly throws more.

I'm not going to get long winded about this fight. It isn't necessary. If both guys just do what they normally do, this ain't gonna be no chess match. It'll be more like a pit bull fighting a doberman. the smart money goes on the pit bull.

 

:-(

Not at MW!

 

Williams by mid round or late TKO/KO. If he doesn't get the KO then a UD is guaranteed.

Can't see Pavlik winning this UNLESS he overpowers Williams and proves that his power will be too much for Williams to handle. I personally think Williams will handle his power well and land his own.

 

Originally I thought Williams UD mainly because of work-rate-output and speed, but now I'm leaning towards a Pavlik late TKO.

 

What I look for first and foremost is how likely a fighter is to execute a gameplan. I think Pavlik is more focused in that regard than Williams, because he's more one-dimensional and less adaptable, in that he's just a come forward fighter who throws a lot of hard punches. I know to some people reading this calling him one-dimensional might seem like a criticism, but it's not, I just mean he's not got much to his game in terms of adaptability, he really has that one style, he's just damn good at it and can get away with not being that adaptable.

Williams I think has more to his game, in that he can break you down with plenty of punches like Pavlik does, or I think he can box if need be with this reach and range. Trouble is, in this encounter, his range and reach is taken away because of Pavlik's own height and reach, and although Williams is still a bit taller and has a bigger reach, I think with Pavlik closing him down continuously, it'll be pretty much canceled out and if Pavlik is in punching range of Williams, then vice versa it'll be the same, Williams will always be in range with Pavlik.

In that respect, I think Williams will find it difficult to out-box a guy like Pavlik for the full 12, I think he'll find it difficult to stick to the gameplan in that respect because I don't think he'll have it all his own way and so might try and get Pavlik out of there. And that's why I think he'll eventually get dragged into a war, if he doesn't go gung-ho from the start, and in that respect I think Pavlik is bigger and stronger being the more natural at the weight, I think he can hande Williams power, but I'm not sure if Williams can handle Pavlik's, I don't think he'll get starched by one or two punches, I just think he'll get broken down.

 

I'm still undecided as to who will win this fight.

 

Right Jeff. It's sometimes hard to fathom how boxing fans can sometimes be so far out of the information loop. Pavlik/Taylor II was at a 166 catchweight, so you might as well say it was at super middle. In addition, it is a well known fact that KP injured both hands in the middle rounds. The consequences of that are obvious when you watch the fight. KP won most of the early rounds. Then JT started basically whoopin' his ass in the mid rounds. KP adjusted, settled in to box, and won the late rounds. Kind of a no brainer really.

 

PWill in 12

 

Pavlik stoppage. P Will is going to be disrupted by that hard jab. P Will cant back up Pavlik so he will just march foward and land hard shots.

 

Pavlik will make minced meat outta williams.:bbb

 

I think Williams by stoppage.

 

That was a good tough fight. Jermaine landed almost 50% of his power punches and could not KO Pavlik. Jermaine unleashed bombs on him. I don't see how the hell Paul can KO Kelly. I won't be shocked if this goes to decision.

I've got to weigh this fight in my mind more before I make a certain pick and analysis though. Paul cannot get dragged into a firefight. I think I am with you that he has to fight a very smart fight for a full 12 rounds. My X-factor is the Pavlik lead left-hook.

He was practicing it on Rubio. I said before he needs to use this punch more. If he does, he really helps himself, and I am suspicious this will be part of the plan.

 

Williams by decision, you saw how much Pavlik struggled with Hopkins speed. Williams has the speed and a ridiculous workmate!

 

I see 5 votes for Williams by KO/TKO. How?

Miranda couldn't even buy a blink.

Taylor hit KP with about 20 flush shots, and in the very next round KP handed out an ass whoopin'.

Hopkins used Kelly for a ****ing heavy bag for 12 rounds.

Number of times Pavlik has been stopped = ZERO!!

A vote for PW by KO/TKO is silly, and that is a fact.

 

I'm surprised there's no option for a draw. I don't see it happening but stranger things have happened in boxing