I've been watching some Cotto fights recently to see how his style will fare against Pac. Miguel Cotto is one of my current favourite fighters but Pac is my favourite fighter of all time. So I'm probably slightly biased towards Pac by I'm trying not to be. Why Pac will win: What I picked up on, in the Judah vs Cotto fight was 2 things. Lateral movements, Cotto cant handle it. I cant believe how easy Judah was sidestepping Cotto's jab but not taking advantage afterwards. Cotto pushes his jab outwards so it gives you more time to sidestep it, Pac's footspeed is incredible, I can see him sidestepping Cotto, landing 3punch combination, jump back out, land 1-2, sidestep and so on. Cotto will be confused and puzzled! Judah also controlled the range well at start, making Cotto miss his jabs by quite a distance and only jumping in to land his own...something Pac is a master at. Second thing is of course how Judah hurt Cotto. Cotto gets hurt by punches he doesnt see coming, with Pac's akward punch angles and speed, he wont see a lot of them coming. This is why I think Pac stuns him, possibly early but I doubt it, it will be when Cotto gets tired and concentration is not there. When pac stuns him, he finishes him...unless Cotto tries something dirty. Cotto is very tough and durable, you have to be to take those hits from Mosley for 12 rounds. Im leaning towards a decision but unlike Cotto-Mosley fight, I think Pac is gonna land so much the accumulation may add up before the end, stopping him in the 10th round. Like I said earlier, there is also the posibility that Pac stops him as soon as he hurts him, but I got a feeling Cotto survives by any mean neccesary and cut off Pac's momentum. Why Cotto will win: He's a very good combination puncher on fighters that stand there. When pac trades punches, he has to stand still. I believe Cotto has the power to seriously hurt Pac in exchanges. This is also one of those fights I feel uneasy about whereby Pac can be winning 7 rounds, but I think it only takes 1 good round of Cotto to stop Pac. Cotto is a stalker. I always said no fighter that comes to Manny can beat him...however Cotto is a lot bigger. I can see him absorbing what Pac has to give him but eventually getting to Manny, breaking Pac down like hes done so with so many other opponents. I will say this now, Cotto cannot win by decision, he can only win by KO. He has to break Manny down to the point Pac has slowed down completely, ready to be anihilated with a combo. I cant predict when a Cotto KO will come cos it really can come anytime...but thats the only way he can win. BTW I'm completely disregarding the Clottey fight here. That fight doesnt show you anything at all, other than Clottey is an akward **** to fight. The Size Factor: I think the most important thing here is, this is Pac's 3rd fight at WW/JWW. That doesn't mean to say he's a fully pledge WW now but he would almost certainly be stronger and more accustomed to the weight now than he was first time round. Cotto will be facing an even better version of Pac than the one DLH fought... Cotto being the bigger man is an advantage in 1 thing, not power or strength but chin. Pac is equal in terms of power and strength, just look at the guys legs. Its the chin factor. We know Pac carried his power but we dont know if he carried his chin. I will say this though, Pac has always carried his chin up with his power...there's no reason to believe this weightclass is an exception! The fight itself: Short and sweet, Pac keeps his distance most of the type landing his combinations, using lateral movements to confuse and tag Cotto. Cotto lands his jabs now and again and in the exchanges lands a couple of shots here and there. He may stun Pac once or twice to which Pac will cover up, Cotto does his best work inserting accurate punches. He has to be careful though as Pac can return fire in the middle of his combo. I can see Pac catching him with pretty much everything. Its gonna be a masterclass! Nothing is certain in boxing. But of all those, what i think is most likely gonna happen: Pac by KO rounds 7-10!! My past correct picks include Calzaghe-Lacy, Hatton-Tsyzu, Pac-DLH, Mosley-Margo, Pac-Hatton, most recently Haye by decision. I've had a few wrong picks which I can count on 1 hand, Pac-Morales1, hopkins-Pavlik, Peter-Toney1. My record I would say is probably 8/10. I have put money down on Pac by KO and some one decision, I put KO on rounds 7-10, should any of those rounds come up, I win big So far I have won on my last 3 boxing bets so its all good. If I am wrong I will worship PBF/Cotto for a month, declaring my manlove for him everyday, wear whatever avatar you guys choose and have month off. I'm confident in this one!
i agree with most of the things you said, except: 1. cotto isn't THAT much bigger. 2. when was pac's chin tested above 130? 3. the clottey fight was worth mentioning because clottey has VERY fast hands, much like pac, and is bigger and stronger than pac. 4. you forgot the stamina factor, which is a big advantage for pac. i would really like to see cotto win this fight, but my gut is telling me pac's gonna win. either by late tko (like you said) or decision for basically the same reasons you think so. i hope this doesn't happen, but whenever i ignore my gut feeling, i make bad picks and lose money. good analysis.
also, the clottey fight showed us just how hard it is to count cotto out. he beat one bad dude with a terrible cut for the entire fight. one of the reasons i have such a hard time going with my gut on this one... god damn this is a tough fight to call!
1) Come fight night, he will be over a weight class bigger, a weight class and a half by estimation (10lbs). 2) Good question This is my biggest concern. He looked bothered the 1 time ODLH touched him, same with Hatton. For the Pac and boxing fans, I hope Pac's chin holds up...else we might see over very quickly. Regardless, "he took those shots, he took them!"lol. 3) Clottey's hands are not as fast as Pac, not even close IMO...maybe Im overestimating Pac's spee? Clottey also doesnt provide akward angles. His style of covering up, then throwing his punches is also quite different from Pac who can explode anytime, Clottey seems a lot more calculated. Foot movement wise, workrate etc...Clottey completely different style to Pac. Id sooner compare Mosley, Judah or even Quitana fights to Cotto-Pac than Cotto-Clottey. Cotto showed heart but thats a given, I knew that way before that fight! 4) I think the stamina factor is a factor when both guys are really having it rough. I just dont see a war like that. I see either Pac dominating getting taking a few from Cotto, or Cotto KHTFO! It'll be a good fight, but IMO Morales, JMM would have given Pac a tougher fight, win or loose. I wouldn't berate anyones opinion of who they think is gonna win, its 50/50 and will only sway depending on how you guage their overall abilities. Its obvious I rate Pac's power, speed, footspeed, akwardness very highly...I'm also giving him the benefit of the doubt with his chin. However like I said, I'm very confident with this pick, almost as confident as I was with Pac beating Hatton!
Yea, never paid attention to that before but it was amazing. Cotto has this weird jab, its a power jab, he pushes it out so when an opponent sidesteps it he actually has plenty of time to counter. Watching Pac train, there's alot of emphasis on footwork, very underrated footwork. I try lateral movements in sparring but very difficult to pull off...Pac looks like he's sliding around the ring...theres a clip where he just slides to the side and literally behind Roach in a second. Thats also how Oscar who likes to fight from a distance using his jab was beffudled too...Pac would literally end up behind Oscar soon as he sidestep him. Win or loose, Pac is a very underrated boxer. Speed & power alone does not make you that great.
nnnooooooo00000000000000oooooooo I put a bet down on Pac KO 7-11, and going into the 7th I thought it was pretty much guaranteed. They just had to wait until the 12th!!!!
