Freddie Roach's Secret Strategy vs Cotto Revealed! A Military Analysis

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We provide an alternative explanation - a contrarian analysis - of what happened during the Manny Pacquiao vs. Miguel Cotto fight on November 14th. We depict a picture that differs from conventional views, as we believe the strategy "Master" Freddie Roach employed against the bigger Puerto Rican was far "more than meets the eye."

( Proceeding requires the wearing of a thinking cap. )

Theory # 1:

Freddie Roach (and Manny Pacquiao) wanted Miguel Cotto to win round 1 and the early part of round 2. Why?

Analysis:

Roach stated to the general public that his pupil would attack the then-welterweight champion similar to how Pacquiao attacked Ricky Hatton. Roach declared that Pacquiao would knock out Cotto in the first round. This was an easy deception to detect. In the words of Sun Tzu: "All warfare is based on deception. Even though you are competent, appear to be incompetent. Though effective, appear to be ineffective."

The vast majority of the public, and Cotto's own camp, believed that the Puerto Rican would be the stronger and more powerful boxer. Roach (and Pacquiao) knew that the Filipino possesses an explosive junior middleweight punch. Early in the fight, the strategy was to let Cotto move forward and open himself up with the left jab. Manny backed up and pretended to be negatively effected by the "more powerful" welterweight champ. Even HBO commentators were sold on the strategy when Pacquiao was laying on the ropes.

Pacquiao repeatedly placed himself in the direct line of fire, and covered himself up with his gloves like a turtle inside a shell. Manny kept on backing up. Once Cotto was convinced that he could hurt the "smaller" man, he went into his habit of predictably moving forward with his lead ( front ) left jab. ( Cotto is a left-handed fighter with an orthodox stance which means his left jab is his lead punch. ) Once the Puerto Rican moved forward with his left, Roach's first phase of the battleplan succeeded.

Alternatively, for Pacquiao to simply march forward towards Cotto would violate one of Sun Tzu's maxims: "Be extremely subtle, even to the point of formlessness. Be extremely mysterious, even to the point of soundlessness."




Theory # 2:

As mentioned, Pacquiao and Roach had an interest in making Cotto think that he was effective with the left jab and doing it while on the attack. Cotto telegraphs his punches most revealingly under this situation. Roach alluded to this weakness in several interviews leading up to the fight. Understandably, he withheld from disclosing any details.

Cotto's belief that he was effective plodding forward was reinforced with Manny backing up early in the fight ( and pretending to be hurt ). This was an error on the Puerto Rican's part. This mistake underscores the inexperience of his camp.

What is the object of defence? To preserve. To preserve is easier than to acquire; from which follows at once that the means on both sides being supposed equal, the defensive is easier than the offensive.

If the Prussian general was Cotto's ring advisor, he would have recommended for Cotto to be on the defensive early in the fight. That would have allowed Cotto to gauge the Pacman's speed. Instead, Cotto attacked Pacquiao immediately without first scouting his opponent. In Clausewitz's view, defense is easier than offense. Defense allows you to first gather information on your enemy's capabilities so that you can tailor your offense according to those skills

The Roach-Pacquiao team did not want to face a counter-punching Miguel early in the fight. They were ready to give up the first and second rounds, if need be, on points in order to have a significant tactical advantage from rounds three to twelve. This was a brilliant move by Roach. ( In a later article, we will explore why Roach will become even more crucial in Pacquiao's showdown with the great wizard, Floyd Mayweather, Jr. ) Judging that he ( Manny ) could withstand Cotto's power, Pacquiao went for the kill probably a little earlier as planned - in the second half of round two.

Analysis:

Cotto moving forward with the left jab benefited the speedy Pacquiao in three important ways. First, Cotto telegraphs his punches. His left foot takes a wide step forward. His back right foot plants on the back to provide torque and leverage. His head - tucked under his chin - hunches forward. And when Cotto wants to throw his best punch, a powerful left hook, sometimes his shoulders and chest betray an exaggerated twist to his right.

Secondly, Cotto opens himself up - more than other fighters - to counter-punches. When Cotto fully commits on his left jab ( which has enough power that it knocked down Joshua Clottey ), that left jab remains extended for just enough time to allow fighters to quickly dart inside. That is exactly what Pacquiao did. When Cotto moved forward, Pacquiao would see it in advance. When Cotto threw the left jab, Pacquiao quickly moved in to Cotto's left and unleashed three to five punch combinations as well as blows both to the body and to the head.

Third, Pacquiao gained in confidence and grew in daring in the second and third rounds. He knew that his and Roach's "secret plan" worked. If you watch Cotto closely in the second and third rounds, he was shell-shocked particularly at the way the Filipino took apart his left jab. He reverted to his best punch: the left hook.

Roach and Pacquiao was ready. Cotto is vulnerable to body punches straight down the middle because his left hooks are looping and have a wide arc. ( We also discussed this weakness in a prediction article. ) Cotto's face may have been bludgeoned. Make no mistake, he was hurting in the body from the third round to the final 12th round. Pacquiao hit Cotto flush with several uncontested body shots in his upper stomach and lower lung region - specifically, in the solar plexus region which is an area that can cause a fighter to lose his breath or to seriously get injured. Outside of the ring, he may be all smiles. But on November 14th, Pacquiao was a cold killer.

Pacquiao's right hand is now a wrecking ball to be reckoned with ( and a weapon that Floyd Mayweather, Jr's left side of the body will have to contend with ).

Supporting Data:

What evidence supports this theory? Let's take a look at the CompuBox results. In the first round, Manny's work rate was low, throwing only 41 punches. In the second, fourth, fifth, sixth, and seventh rounds, Pacquiao threw at least 70 punches. In the ninth round, he threw over 90 punches. That seems to confirm that he was playing soft in the first round. As Cotto opened up, Pacquiao's accuracy and connect rate also increased from 29% in the firt round, to between 40 - 50% in the next eight rounds ( except for round five ). This seems to suggest that opening Cotto up made Pacquiao more effective by landing highly accurate punches

Cotto, on the other hand, started at a cautious 53 punches thrown in the first round. As he gained confidence, due to Roach's bait, he threw more punches from round two to round six, ranging from 59 to 75 punches thrown. However, the speedier Pacquiao's connect rate increased significantly during these rounds. That spelled doom for Cotto


Cotto's weak and inexperienced corner failed to grasp the importance of counter-punching Manny with a left jab, instead of leading with it. There is a valid rationale to terminate the services of young trainer Joe Santiago. He provided zero usefulness when Cotto needed him the most: when an adjustment to tactics was called for. In fact, Cotto retreated on his own, and by the time he was completely backing up - it was much too late. He was a red and purple pulp of hospital-ready pain.


A left-handed orthodox stance like Cotto is a dangerous counter-puncher to a swarming style like Pacquiao because the lead ( front ) punch has a much shorter distance to travel versus a right hand punch ( coming from Cotto ). [ Note: This is a primary reason why Pacquiao will have a frustrating and difficult time with Floyd Mayweather, Jr., who always has his left hook cocked and ready to throw, even though he is a right-handed fighter. More on this in a subsequent article. ]


Final Notes:

The all-time legend Manny Pacquiao may have a difficult and frustrating time dealing against the great Floyd Mayweather, Jr. It is not the Filipino's fault. Many of Pacquiao's particular strengths are negated by the unique style of the defensive wizard. We explore this super match-up in full tactical details in subsequent articles leading up to the anticipated ( and as of yet, non-finalized ) bout. It appears that the early 7-5 bettind odds in favor of the Pacman is an emotional reaction to the recent Cotto win. However, a 50-50 split is probably the more appropriate balance. I peg Mayweather as an early 5-4 favorite over Pacquiao. From initial assessments, Freddie Roach will be critical to this match-up. After the Cotto win, Roach commented that he sees something in Mayweather, and that all he needs to do is to let Manny see it also. :bbb

Might I be so bold as to suggest that I see part of what Roach sees. The plan can absolutely work, and is not difficult to execute. It plays to Mayweather's "fragility" in that he is susceptible to getting hurt when hit. However, it is Mayweather's adjustment to this particular attack that will give Pacquiao trouble. Roach is clever, but Mayweather can adjust in real time. Here's a hint. If this match-up is chess, Pacquiao will have his bishops and rooks killing the pawns. But the queen will slide across the board unpredictably and wreak havoc. That's why Roach will have to earn his seven-figure paycheck.

 

Yes it is, if people take a few minutes to understand and read everything slowly they will grasp the concept and the explanation

This is better than saying "Oh Cotto is going to KO Pacquiao or Pacquiao is going to KO Cotto because he is bigger or faster yadda yadda etc.. w/o backing it up with real analysis