You´re right.People always say AA can´t win on points when in fact there wasn´t a fight yet where he was behind on the scorecrds after 10 rounds... It really depends tough whether the judges will reward Dirrell for activity and hitting AA´s gloves which is possible since the fight will take place in the US.
He was behind in the Ghevor fight I think. But you are right, his opponents get often gunshy after he countered them a few times. Something that may happen to Dirrell also.
Im unsure Im surprised so many people have gone for AA. Dirrel has the sort of style/attributes to beat him at first glance