Top 5 upsets of the decade

Prescott by KO was +1200
Linares' opponent was over +2000 straight
Karmazin was -2000 over Bunema

 

atschatschatsch:admin

 

Quoting odds doesn't bolster an argument as much as you think - odds don't reflect an expected outcome for a fight, they reflect expected betting patterns. Not the same thing.

From the original list, I consider Tyson/McBride a bigger upset than Tyson/Williams. Williams was the kind of strong/durable guy Tyson would gas against; McBride was a lousy fighter who was slow as anything. I couldn't believe that result.

 

Betting odds reflect the intrest from the public, so odds all depend on what moey is wagered so it reflects how the majoirty of people see the fight going.

 

Sergio mora beating Vernon Forrest

 

harris vs maussa was a shock

 

Exactly.

Betting odds are correct 90% of the time, because those people actually risk money on their prediction, they're not just a bunch of hillbillies hanging around public forums.

 

If pac and mayweather dont happen.. I'll be very ****in upset!

 

I was shocked when pacquiao beat dlh. Just thought he would be to small. Was also shocked when he beat cotto

 

This is exactly opposite to how odds often work. Odds on Hatton vs Floyd were shorter in England precisely because people were willing to put money on "their man" no matter what the numbers. It had NOTHING to do with the expected outcome from an objective standpoint.

Obviously this isn't always the case, but popularity (not ability) affects odds plenty as it affects betting patterns. To use your vernacular, it is "a bunch of hillbillies" determining the odds - that's how bookmakers make a killing, on "dumb money".

Don't mean to hijack, but equating odds with anything like informed opinion is a dangerous practice.

 

agree with everything except the litte " pac like " comment lol sorry just think its ridiculous

 

How about JMM-Chris John?

 

I agree with many things you said.

Just before fight time, the books get it right. Mayweather went from -180 Saturday afternoon to nearly -300 just before the Hatton fight.

Pac/DLH was about -150/+125 just before the fight, because insiders waited until the unofficial weigh-ins were conducted, and heavy money came in on Pac. BTW, I ****ed that up and bet Oscar -180 BEFORE the weigh-in atsch

Shows like 24/7 do bring in a lot of square money, but informed money - or "sharps" - tend to come late and restore order. Calzaghe was only about -200 just before fighting Hopkins, which was correct. The Mayweather line vs Marquez fell for weeks before the fight, then soared on fight night.

Anyway, I think bettors tend to have it right, although I agree, they often do get it wrong. Betting odds reflect informed opinion USING ONLY THE INFORMATION AVAILABLE. Concensus was that the Oscar that fought Mayweather would crush Pacquiao. I still believe he would have. Just before fight time however, those with an eye on detail saw something wrong in the Hoya camp which changed everything.

Same with Mosley-Margo: Using the information available, Margo was supposed to run over Mosley. Noone could have guessed that Mosley, like Hop against Pavlik, found the fountain of youth, and that their opponents were either underweight and damaged (Margo), or overweight and soft (Pavlik).

Upsets where one fighter shows up in unpredictably good or bad condition are different from upsets where people genuinely get it wrong, like Forrest-Mosley, or Hopkins-Trinidad.