this might sound crazy but...

My thoughts exactly, Cain was almost out when he took down Kongo a few times. If he tries that with Nog he is going to get choked out.

:yep

 

Exactly man im not sure how Cain can win this if Nog shows up in great shape like he did in his last fight. Cain isnt a terrible striker but his defense is suspect and Nog has great hands he could very well get picked apart like we mentioned and hurt.

If he shoots man Nog has a great sprawl the guy can wrestle and hes a Blackbelt in Judo this isnt a one trick pony by any means. Cain shoots then sprawl and Nog is looking at chokes is there anyone better with submissions from the front headlock/sprawl postion then Nog ? I doubt it.

Cain has good GNP but you cant finish Nog with GNP and I cant imagine 15 minutes go by without Nog landing a fight ending armbar/triangle or a sweep. Cain is a great wrestler and of course holds a great base but guess what so did Couture, Barnett and Fedor among others and didnt stop Nogueira from sweeping them IMO his sweeps are as good as anyone hes probablly the 1st guy to make Spider Guard effective in MMA and if your in his half guard forget about it your getting rolled.

I have a feeling a guy with limited experience like Cain and someone whos whole game is based on being on top is probablly a fish out of water once hes on his back with a World Class BJJ Blackbelt like the great Nogueira.

 

Nothing more I can really add to that man, :thumbsup.

I watched Nogueira vs Werdum recntly and the half guard sweeps he worked on a guy with the Jiu Jitsu credientials of Werdum were very impressive. So as you say if Cain tries to pass and gets caught in half guard he is going to get swept.

 

Funny ive never actually seen Nog-Werdum im on my way to it now.

 

It seems you have it all figured out, I guess Cain doesn't have a hope in hell.

But I still say cain wins this so if you guys are so confident I would like to wager an avatar bet?

Any takers?

 

i can see it happening. cain will be faster with his punches. if he does take him down, he'll hold him in position and keep driving those fists in. i can definitely see that happening. i can also see nogs sneaky boxing edging the stand up and his bjj locking a sub.

hard to say, cains not mixed in this class at all. plus his beard got cracked by kongo but then he had the presence of mind to sort the situation out every time.

 

I'm your huckleberry, AJAX! I'll take Nogeuira over Velazquez! Standard rules apply?

 

I'll take that bet.

Stipulations?

 

haha, ok i'll take Sugar and 196osh on.

The avatar will last until UFC 111. Only deal is both of you have to decide on an avatar should I lose.

 

Good stuff.

:good

 

He certainly did, I don't mean to belittle that fight. What I'm interested in with Nog, his chin, wasn't really tested in that fight though. Although, Cain doesn't exactly have huge power either.

 

Good point although Randy landed alot of punches hes not a power puncher by any means. If Nog's chin is to be tested I honestly dont think this is the fight to be it. Nog has went down a few times in recent years in the 1st Barnett fight but Barnett's proved in recent years he can strike and Nog did recover. Heath dropped him with a flush headkick, Sylvia with his trademark right hand and all these times he recovered fairly quick. Now you know me and you defend Frank Mir alot but lets face it the staph infection didnt help Nog at all in that fight. For me just by judging his body alone for his first 3 UFC fights he looked out of shape in comparison to his Pride days. We saw more of the old Nog agianst Randy he was much more trimmer, his hands looked sharper, his reflexes sharper it was a great performence agianst a 46 year old but still damn good fighter.

 

He clearly was not at his best against Mir. but really it is just the slow movement away from robotic chin and towards being subject to the laws of physics that has been going on for a while.

Also Randy fights at a relatively slower, albeit physically demanding, grinding pace, whereas Cain is a more active fighter. Both take a lot out of the opponent but in different ways

Really I mean that I don't think the Randy fight is a great forecast for this fight because they are pretty different styles, not because Cain is better than Randy (which he may or may not be now, but that's beside the point).

 

This is the part i like...

 

:happy:happy