Kelly Pavlik Will Knock Sergio Martinez Out, and Here's Why.

As an amatuer Pavlik amassed a record of 89-9, won multiple national titles, and made the Olympic Trials at a mere 17 years of age. He was eventually eliminated by Jermain Taylor. JT went on to win a bronze medal in the 2000 Olympics, and Pavlik signed with Top Rank and fought his first pro fight that year.

The experience gap between Pavlik and Martinez is to enormous to ignore. Pavlik won his first national title at 147 right around the same time Martinez started boxing!

The first time Martinez tried to take a step up in class he got obliterated by Margarito, and then all but disappeared for nearly 9 years. The first time Pavlik stepped up in class he scored consecutive stoppage wins over Zuniga, McKart, Zertuche, Miranda, and Jermain Taylor. Sergio's big claims to fame consist of a controversial draw with Cintron, and a loss to Williams; both of whom are natural welterweights. Pavlik ran right over two guys who were the biggest and best middleweights in the world at fight time. The difference in experience and class between these two ought to be obvious.

Various threads on ESB, and many interent articles make it clear that the difference is not obvious to most people, so I hope to help a few people shed their blinders, and take a realistic look at the upcoming Pavlik/Martinez fight.

The first and most obvious thing is Martinez's general lack of sound fundamentals. For example he does not keep his hands up or place his hands in a proper defensive position when he is under attack and getting tagged. Pavlik will attack, and Martinez will get tagged.

On the same note, Martinez does occassioanally keep his hands up near his chin, but he often drops them while he is still in his opponents effective firing range, and gets hit. That is definitely not a good idea when Pavlik is your opponent.

The idea that such a highly regarded fighter makes the mistakes I've seen Martinez make is actually a bit shocking. His jab is often almost humorous. He frequently sticks his right hand out in the middle of nowhere, and just sort of waves it around aimlessly, and then he paws, pushes, and telegraphs his jab. This leaves Martinez with little means of keeping Pavlik off of him. It also presents one more opportunity for Pavlik to hit Martinez with right hand bombs.

And speaking of right hands, Martinez leaves himself open to hard right hands so much of the time one has to wonder if he even knows how to defend against a good right hand. If Cintron and Williams can blast Martinez with right hands, trust me, Pavlik will hit him more times with bigger right hands.

Martinez spends so much time show boating and taunting his opponents that I honestly believe that taking away his ability to do that would take him way out of his comfort zone. Pavlik will stay right in Sergio's grill, force him to fight, and force him to keep his hands up, or get blasted.

Martinez loves to rush in and throw a lead left. However, he tends to telegrah what he is doing, and he comes straight in. If he does that against Pavlik, he'll get caught with a really brutal jab/right-hand nearly everytime.

In my opinion Sergio's best punch is his right hook. However, he does not do a great job of setting it up. He usually just rushes in with his face hanging out, and throws. This is a very predictable pattern. If Martinez is coming in from your left side, he will throw a right hook. Look for KP to take one short step to his own right, throw a short overhand right followed by a left uppercut, and then take a step back and hit a stunned Martinez with a good 1-2. I hate to be so specific in this type of post, but I honestly believe this might be the show stopper.

Martinez spends a god awful amount of time circling the wrong way. For a guy who is proned to getting hit with right hands circling directly into a Pavlik lead right is probably a very bad idea.

Pavlik's flaws have been cussed and discussed on ESB ad nauseum. Most people seem to literally have blinders on when it comes to Martinez's flaws. They are many, and they are the kind of flaws that get fighters knocked the **** out by Kelly Pavlik. The round depends a great deal on how aggressive Martinez is. If he is as aggresive as he was with Cintron and/or Williams, he won't see the end of eight.

 

Since you so clearly have issues with reading comprehension, let me see if I can make it simpler for you. Pavlik started boxing at 9 years of age and was winning national titles by the time Martinez fought his first fight ever. Pavlik has ten times the experience Martinez has. Is that clear enough, or do I need to dumb it down a bit more?

 

Don't ever take it personal. I might be going tooth and nail with you on one thread, and at the same time, backing you to the hilt on another thread:yep

At the end of the day, experience counts. It does not always decide the outcome, but it means a lot. On this occasion we have a guy who has competed at the highest levels of the sport as an amatuer and a pro fighting a guy who fought a long list of no hopers, and then did not fair so well whenever he stepped up. That is meanignful.