break it down: Lucian Bute vs Kelly Pavlik @ 168lbs

lucian bute to get hometown decision?

 

let me guess who the judges will be

Benoit Roussel?
Jean Lapointe?
Robert Benoit ?
Claude Paquette?
Richard DeCarufel ?


and this pavlik fight would probably beeeeee.......let's see...... the bell center?

 

I honestly do not remember exactly how I added up the 13-1 (11 KO's.) I think I included everything from 164-170, thus "at, near, or above."

Basically, I think we are mostly in agreement. However, things are always in flux in boxing. Since we are talking about KP specifically, the Ross Thompson fight at 170 shows nothing that would lead us to believe Pavlik would ever hold a major title. Eighteen months later, after the McKart fight, I told everyone who would listen, "This kid is the next middleweight champion of the world."

Right now I think that head to head I would pick Bute over anyone in the division. I'd really hate to see Pavlik rush head long into this fight. Let him have the martinez fight, and then see what's available. If he can get Sturm or Williams before he moves up, he should do it. After that, fight a 168 pounder off the "B" list. Then look at Bute.

 

Actually up to this point there has been limited discussion of MSG for the venue. The theory is that it's a neutral location both fan bases would travel to.

 

i'm a fan of bute. i feel he's right up there in the smw ranks. he's got all the tools to be great. he throws a helluva body shot and has dropped two very tough men with them. right now its not a fair question since pav is committed to mw. when kelly has had a fight or so at smw after committing to moving up then i'll opine. bute should not be his first fight when he moves up.

right now i would take bute.

but...pavlik would be the best bute has fought. pavlik has been in wars and not wilted. he's gotten his ass handed to him and not stopped. extreme pressure was applied to bute and he wilted. he came back strong as all hell and put on a clinic in the second fight but he did wilt in the first. that fact isnt the be all end all but it is something for pav to build off of. andrade was landing on bute. bute was obviously the more skilled fighter but he's not untouchable. his hands are very low and pav would have to take a few for every one he landed but he would land. if he could keep the pressure up w/ his strong jab and precise straight right...who knows.

the fight should happen and it could be very big depending on what either man does between now and then

 

Agreed. Assuming he gets past Martinez first, of course.

 

At the moment, Bute would probably win a close decision, hopefully Kelly moves up the right way and not against arguably the no 1 SMW. A couple of things I noticed during the first Andrade fight.
1. Bute was getting hit cleanly by a very SLOW Andrade.
2.Bute has a warrior mentality, he would trade with Andrade on numerous occasions.
3. Bute seems like he tires in the later rounds against a pressure fighter.
Now it was obvious during the 2nd fight Bute was looking much different then the first fight.
If bute has flashbacks from the first andrade fight, he could be in for a long night against Kelly, would not be surprised if Bute goes down a couple times.

 

Good post Landshark.

I'd favour Bute to take a decision in this, though it wouldn't be easy. Bute did not like the pressure Andrade brought, and Pavlik brings much more educated pressure than Andrade, leaving much less room for countering and such. Bute is quick and slick enough to neutralise Pavlik's best weapons, but can he do it on a consistent basis? Taylor was doing a pretty good job of countering Pavlik for 4-5 rounds, but after that Pavlik was just jabbing too much for him. Pavlik HAS to move up the right way to have a chance, though.

 

And, equally, Pavlik would "close the show" if Bute were to decide to stick his chin out like he did in Bute/Andrade I.

Mistakes reveal very little; habits reveal all.

 

Before we get a landslide of opinion favouring Bute, let us not forget that Pavlik has a very good jab (and Bute doesn't) and that Pavlik knows how to land the right after opening the way with the jab (and Bute can be hit fairly easily with right hands).

This would be a hell of a fight because the two styles would gel very well.

I know Bute's number one target by a mile is Pavlik and I know that the signals that Pavlik, his promoter and his trainer give out are not favourable to this fight being made, but this is a fight I'd definitely want to see.

 

I wouldn't be too worried about Bute losing his head if he became a star. He's started training in Florida after the first Andrade fight to escape the pressures and distractions that came with being more and more well-known and popular in Montreal and a this approach has born fruit. If anything, Bute is going the other way. I haven't seen more interviews; I have seen more articles quoting Bute and more articles written about him, particularly by American journalists.

On the other hand, I am more and more worried about Pavlik considering himself such a big draw and such a good fighter that he feels he can pick and choose opponents whilst still expecting to be a bill-topper on HBO. The Martinez fight is a very good fight, but I want Pavlik to start fighting some top, real MWs from now on.

 

They are on the endangered species list presently.:smoke

 

You are right.

But in two years, if Pavlik is still around and campaigning at MW, he will have to face Golovkin or N'Jikam or Jacobs, assuming these three (particularly the last two) live up to their potential.

But, realistically, if Pavlik cannot get a good fight against a top opponent at MW later on this year (after Martinez), he should move to SMW, take a tune-up against a Top 15 fighter and then fight someone in the top 10, ideally Bute in Spring 2011.

 

In the rematch, point 1 has happened because of point 2. Bute didn't follow the game plan at all. He was obsessed by one thing: knocking Andrade out, at any price. He would be necessarily do the ame thing against Pavlik.

Point 3 is irrelevant. Bute had problems because he was ill prior the first fight against Andrade. He has in fact a very good stamina. I won't make a prediction for Bute-Pavlik on the base of the Pavlik-Hopkins fight for the same reason.

Finally, Bute won't have flashbacks. The knock down against Andrade just made him better. I think Bute would win because he's always worked very hard and is still improving at a fast pace. Pavlik is not improving very much. He's not as dedicated as Bute neither. He should take the figth as soon as possible for that reason.