You are right. I personally just dont thin he has the jab for the job...that's why I think work-rate is the thing. He needs to pull more pressure or concentrated accuracy from somewhere, I just wonder which way he will leap because I honestly am not sure that a mix is going to get him very far (although obviously i'm not trying to sayhe should fight like Rocky Marciano).
Mayweather seems to neutralize high work rate. Oscar, JMM, Hatton were all in a tough place trying to pull off their standard against counter punching like mayweathers. High punch and energy output arn't worth anything in the world if you can't hit him.
Mosley's going to get countered a lot by a guy who throws one punch at a time and probably doesn't have the power to trouble him. Stamina is the key issue. I think Mosley gassed against Cotto and was simply outworked. But Mayweather isn't as busy or aggressive as Cotto. So I can't see FMJ *simply* outworking Mosley. I expect Mosley will look sharp in the early rounds, and have the speed and aggression to be ahead on the cards before Mayweather takes control and dominates. How long Mosley can keep going at full tilt is the key, hopefully he'll be in the shape of his life and that will give him a slightly fuller tank. I don't like the other scenario whereby Mosley is toyed with from the off.
Does anyone think left hooks to the body/hip area can be a benefit for Mosley? I hadn't thought of this until the pair of body shots Castillo landed just before the overhand right, but it seems like Floyd's guard doesn't entirely cover that side of the body and Shane can be a wicked body puncher when he remembers to use that weapon.
The thing is, whilst Mayweather isn't a "pushing" type of fighter, he makes guys miss, and he makes guys move, and both of these things are tiring - it's the reason, as far as I am concerned, for Oscar's tailing off in the second half of the fight. But yeah, he's not oging to out-work Mosley.
It's true, he is certainly going to miss, but it always pays to remember that in scoring a boxing match perception can be everything. If you have a sequence where Floyd hits Shane with a punch or two that doesn't seem to have any effect on Shane, then Shane responds by pinning Floyd against the ropes and throwing a flurry where almost every punch gets deflected but one or two get through and they look much more impressive and powerful, a lot of judges are going to be inclined to score that sequence for Shane. He may not have actually scored or inflicted any more damage than Mayweather, but the appearance was that Mayweather couldn't hurt him and Shane responded with big blows that, most people think, had to do more damage. This may not be correct, but it can tip an opinion in a certain direction. All too true about the fingers crossed aspect. Floyd's ability to adapt to multiple approaches and negate most offense through his defense and movement mean that, at a certain point you have to say "We hope this will work, if we run into problems we'll try to adapt on the fly". However, I can't say enough how much I feel that keeping Floyd overly defensive and in the shell is a key to the fight. He's been penalized for that on the scorecards before, even at times when he probably shouldn't have been. If Shane can manage it and not gas out or get carried away, he can really take this fight.
And the FMJ at 147 we see against Mosley is probably going to be a notch above the one that fought Oscar at 154...
Excellent analysis. Mayweather lures opponents into traps brilliantly, all in an effort to tire you out physically and psychologically by feeling like you're cutting off the ring but not landing. MEASURED attack is the key, as you mentioned. Since Castillo 1, I haven't seen one Floyd opponent stick to an even-keeled gameplan of effective distance and well executed pressure - they are always either chasing or trying to bully. The reason this fight can be great is because I think Shane (with Richardson's help) has a chance of finding the antidote for Floyd's style. But, I've said it before, you can't come into the ring with Floyd wth one gameplan - because he comes in there studying and adapting.
I can see Mosley moving in and out of range and throwing single and double shots. Might be quite dull for the first few rounds. He has to be patient and try and get Floyd frustrated and engaging him. Then he can try and catch Floyd coming in and flurry off that. He can then back Floyd up to the ropes throwing plenty of shots then back off and repeat. I can even see Mosley eventually catching Floyd with something big and finishing him in the mid to late rounds, blind optimism!? Maybe a small bit like how Burton (Augustus) fought Floyd? Though that was a very different Floyd.
Who knows? An unconventional fighter is the way to beating Floyd. Someone who has no problem looking ugly and wants to walk him down, grab his hands, throw his centre of balance around, press him against the ropes, throw around the shoulder. Immanual Augustus, ODLH, JLC all scored points and gained progress by rough approach. Jeff Fenech style of boxing is the key i think but with more technique like Manny Pacquaio. You can't box the guy, you have to make it a fight.
I'm always quite bad at these kind of threads but the one thing i'm sure of is that mosley is gonna have to not only have a plan B, he's gonna have to have a plan C, D, E etc right through to Z. Mayweather is a calm, collected boxer who fights intelligently; you need to take these things away from him and take him away from his comfort zones. To do this, Mosley is gonna have to bring everything he can to the table; powershots, timing, accuracy, combinations, a good jab, workrate, and so forth. Shane should have multiple plans in his head and try them all - for example, he should come out fast, and apply intelligent pressure with a good volume of shot, if Mayweather has any form of trouble with this, keep doing it but ADD TO IT. Sneak in feints, movement, variety etc and don't let him settle. The moment he even begins to settle, move onto the next plan, for example, start doubling and tripling the jab and using a LOT of movement, then when Mayweather starts to fathom this one, move onto the next one. If all goes to plan, each of these plans should keep the fight in Shanes court, allowing him to be effective enough (in whatever way) to get rounds in the bank. Shane HAS to rob Mayweather of his ability to adapt - of course you can't physically stop him doing it, but with VARIETY, you can hopefully keep him guessing.