April 2010 ESB State of Opinion: Pacquiao vs Mayweather

We haven't done one of these for a while and I'm interested in the current state of play.

Who do you think wins in this prospective epic match-up, and how?

(Note: Not 'who do you want to win?', but 'what would actually happen?')

 

Mayweather. I thought May would smoke him until I saw Pac bring his power and speed up in weight. Now I still think May is the better boxer, is a bigger and his hand speed is about equal. I think Pac holds an advantage in power, foot speed, and combo speed. In the end I think Floyd outboxes him. It would be a great fight early on and then Floyd takes over down the stretch as he makes adjustments. Floyds best punch is his lead right, it would be an effective weapon angainst Pac.

I see it 30/70 for Mayweather, about a year and a half ago I only gave Pac a punchers chance.

 

I agree that it's narrowed-up. Pac's been impressive at the higher weights in a way I didn't really expect. I'd have it nearer 50-50, but slightly weighted in Floyd's favour. I'm not sure I can see Floyd KOing Pac, though.

 

Pacquiao.

- His southpaw stance will force Mayweather to fight more aggressively and stay off the ropes.

- His darting footwork will bother Mayweather.

- Mayweather's bread and butter is avoiding normal combinations and Pacquiao's unorthodox combos will be big for him.

 

I see it for PBF at 60-40. I think if Pac gets him in the early rounds it would force PBF in a tactical disadvantage. He knows he does not have the power to KD Pac, he would take more risks, thus allow Pac to see more opening. I am not saying he is feather fisted but after seeing Pac eat Cotto and Clotteys power punches, I am convinced PBF would need more than a check hook or 1-2 power pot shot to stop Pac.

That being said, it would be very difficult Pac to win rounds 1-4 convincingly, or enough for PBF to take risks in the mid and late rounds. Pac would need at least 1 10-8 round to convince PBF to come forward. If he gets that, it would change the chances to 60-40 for Pac instead.

 

its close but for Mayweather only because Manny will win some early rounds because the shoulder roll is less effective against southpaws.

 

I can't see Pac outboxing Mayweather AT ALL. The fighter who will likely provide Floyd with the most issues is getting in the ring with him on May 1st. Mayweather has the size, reach, skill and ring intelligence advantage. The speed is about equal. Manny will need the right strategy to beat Floyd, while Floyd will simply have to be his best self to beat Manny. I don't think Manny hits as hard as the hype... he's never been a one punch KO guy. His speedy flurries are what intimidates and overwhelms opponents. If Mayweather *fights* Manny, as opposed to staying on the defensive, I think its an easy night of work. If Mayweather tries to elude Manny the whole night he will make it tougher on himself than it needs to be. I pick Mayweather by a slim to wide margin. Manny has never faced that sort of speed, intellect, elusiveness or counter punching ability in his career.

 

I'm inclined to a Mayweather narrow (but not split or contraversial) decision, whereas previously I picked a wide decision for him. It changed after the Clottey fight.

Against Clottey, Pac not only re-emphasized his ability take a real welterweight punch on the chin, but he also displayed excellent stamina in going the full 12 rounds at a constant aggressive pace, throwing constant aggressive punches.

This makes me believe, perhaps Mayweather won't have as easy night against him as I'd initially thought. However, the Clottey fight didn't show any evidence of an improved defence for Pac (boy that Mayweather jab is gonna frustrate him!). So I think I'll be sticking with a Mayweather decision

 

Its 50-50. Floyd will be troubled by Pac's awkward movements. Pac is quick on his feet, throws multiple combinations and often times are power shots. Pac is very accurate, and knows how to throw those power shots from a distance making it easy for him to move back once his opponents decides to retaliate. On the other hand, Floyd is good at luring his opponents in, while protecting himself with the shoulder roll. Pac is admittedly susceptible to the straight right, which is also Floyds specialty. Floyd is also bigger and has great ring generalship, but is sometimes caught waiting for the perfect time to counter his aggressor, which may not come with Pac. He will have to adapt early to Pac's style, but i doubt it happens till the 7th or 8th rd.

 

mayweathers d has never gone against a fast fluid and powerfull combination fighter like pac. Floyd can only win by tying pac up and stopping his momentum, floyd fights at his own pace when he is forced to fight at a higher pace then he doesn't look good. pacs speed angles and southpaw stance will defeat mayweather, thats only if he fights disciplined with tight d and movement. i see pac winning a decision.

 

Some of these comments are reminding me why we need to see this fight so much. There are so many open questions about the way the styles and approaches will mesh.

One of the open questions is 'The Roach effect'. Mayweather is one of the few fighters who has the ability to fight in several different modes and change his approach when presented with problem, but I think Roach is one of the few trainers who's capable of analyzing Money's different approaches and coming up with a plan for each of them. Whether Pac can put that into practice is just another of the enigmas.

 

I think PAC would win this one by points decision.....too busy and active for Floyd to be able to stay in his comfort zone and try to pot shot all night. I think he'll do well in spots due to PAC's aggression but Manny will apply intelligent pressure and out work Floyd over 12.

 

I agree. Floyd likes to counter and is a master at it but he's use to seeing one or two punch combos.. Manny will throw A LOT MORE.

Floyd is great b/c of his ability to anticipate his opponents next move and watching for offense from orthodox angles. PAC darts in and out...he really doens't have a set rythm and that will cause Floyd problems trying to anticipate Manny's next move.

Now with that said.....Floyd could be too skilled and swift for Manny....that is a real possiblity but I think it's more likely that Manny completely out works the conservative Floyd and if Floyd is too cautious that spells his first loss.

 

Good post!

 

I got Pacman winning UD, (just my opinion mother ****ers!!)

but..it could change on the outcome of the Mayweather/Mosley fight