Honestly if I had to choose one of those options based on what I have seen... I vote: Solid champion (Cotto, Castillo level) I can't front tho, I like watching dude fight. Reminds me alot of Meldrick Taylor.
He has as much skill and talent as you could reasonably demand for a fighter at this stage of his career. Whether he turns into something truly special depends on how he learns, which is entirely unpredictable. However, his raw gifts are sensational and he appears to have the boxing intuition and skills to back it up. I rate him above Lopez and considerably above Caballero.
I think mental issues are his biggest issues. He was throwing wild punches expecting to get Barros out of there and that's obviously why he got caught - as well as conditioning issues. Impatience and indiscipline more than cockiness. That's not abnormal, though, for a fighter on the rise fighting a guy he expects to walk all over.
Only the future will tell. If he can fight with a better (pro) ring IQ, being more adaptive, settle down to smart movement, selective output and excellent timing instead of a lot of movement, and depending too much on athleticism, he can pull a Mtagwa vs. the championship level. If he'll just slightly improve and can't get rid of some bad habits from the ams, he'll have problems vs. the wrong styled opponents who can punch.
Too old to be anything more than a solid champion. Had he gone pro when he was 22 instead of 26, maybe he could get higher than that. So now he's 28 years old and still has never really faced a top 10 guy in his weight class. But it's about time that Arum and Oner have him put up or shut up. I know they want to build up for some mythical Lopez fight that will probably never happen, but there are enough other good options out there. FW is a stacked division right now. Having him fight Jonathan Barros and Rogers Mtagwa doesn't cut it anymore. Too bad they seem to have backed him out from a Caballero fight. That would have been a good one.