Gambling with Stovepipe

:deal

Meehan has been a full time construction worker and at 40,,,, well you do the math.

 

It's not a fight I'd bet on.

Chagaev hasn't proven himself after coming back from the series of illnesses he had. Kali Meehan while waiting very late in his career to make any sort of move has been in impressive form, is physically very fit and is a big unit... his chin is shaky but he also hits quite hard.

Everything indicates Chagaev should easily win but a full year out of the ring, combined with some health issues, it's not really something you want to stake $100 to win $14 on, it's the type of bet you avoid due to the risk/reward scenario unless you parlay into several other results.

 

Well just to be prudent I'll wait for the weigh-in and see if I can get something out of it.

 

You've presented one side of the equation. Meehan is a turd, a tomato can, a club fighter. Yes he has a good right hand, but he hasn't had a meaningful fight in 6 years. He's hasn't fought in 21 months. This fight is a home fight for Chagaev. So unless Meehan lands a lucky punch, which I'm certain Chagaev knows is the only real danger, this fight isn't even close.

 

Yes, no one likes laying long odds but as a percentage I can't give Meehan more then a 10 percent chance of winning the fight making -650 still a good bet.

 

Not really! Chagaev their is to many if's I would stay off that fight I looked at that fight and the more I looked at it I stayed off the bet, I don't have a problem laying big odds on a fight I do it all the time I bet the fighter not the odds.

 

What "ifs" worry you?

-500 on TehGeek... BTW

Over/Under 9.5 TehGeek (-140)

 

The "What if's" regarding Chagaev.

How well did he recover from the loss/beating he took in his last fight?
How "spent" is he as a force, considering injuries and disease in the last few years of his career?
How well will he go against a much taller fighter who is in great shape and can bang (unlike Valuev)?
While Meehan is certainly no Klitschko, he presents similar problems that Klitschko presented without the polish, how does Chagaev respond to that?

Basically, it's just not worth the risk on a .16%

.33 or so? Sure, worth putting in a few units and potentially parlaying against other results.

 

what do you think of Meehan at 4/1?

 

I almost never disagree with his analysis, but in this case i think he's wrong.
He did and others hear continue to discount the facts. Meehan is 40. Meehan hasn't fought in almost 2 years. If you watch film on the guy, all he has is a right hand. He's very weak to the body. Even a faded Chagaev, is far better then this guy.

Meehan, will come running across the ring trying to land his right hand, Chagaev just needs to fight the guy up close negating his long reach. The film I watched didn't show he used a jab much so it won't be difficult to get to the inside. Chagaev hammers that body this is over in 2 rounds.

Geez, Chagaev has lost one fight and that was to Klitschko. His movement was great at the beginning of that fight so his injury was obviously healed. Chagaev is a Hepatitis B carrier. He isn't sick and doesn't get sick from this virus. Others could possibly get sick from him if they swap bodily fluids. He doesn't have the virus just carries the antigen for the virus. It is a non factor.

I won't disagree that maybe the odds are a bit long, but to think that Meehan has a real shot in this fight, seems a bit far fetched.

I may be wrong wouldn't be the first time.

 

I don't like either fighter at the odds, My pick is that Chagaev wins by late stoppage but that's a gut instinct, not worth betting on, not worth throwing money at.