British Forum BETTING thread

Discussion in 'British Boxing Forum' started by TFFP, Mar 1, 2009.


Page 408 of 1430
  1. TFFP

    TFFP The Eskimo

    45,002
    4
    Nov 28, 2007
    I'm in work...somebody do be a big favour as I can't spend time looking too much...

    I'm trying to release a £25 bonus on Bet365. To do it I've just got to bet £86.25 on Bet365 at 1/2 odds or better.

    So all I want to do is find something on Bet365 and another bookmaker (preferably Betfair/Boyle/Victor/Paddy as I have accounts with them) where I can match my bet and lose as little as possible or better yet nothing and release my £25. Hope this makes sense.
     
    TFFP, Sep 7, 2010
    TFFP, Sep 7, 2010
    #6106
  2. icemax

    icemax Indian Red Full Member

    27,158
    2
    Apr 24, 2008
    Bottom half maybe, but I can't see them going down, not with Bellamy in the side
     
    icemax, Sep 7, 2010
    icemax, Sep 7, 2010
    #6107
  3. skel1983

    skel1983 Guest


    Am your man TTTF hold on mate loev a bit of the match betting have made about 700 last month. Rite two ticks I'll find you something.

    How big is your lay account can you afford something to loose at say 5/1 or 6/1?? Obviously bigger the odds the better the percentage of the bonus you win?
     
    skel1983, Sep 7, 2010
    skel1983, Sep 7, 2010
    #6108
  4. skel1983

    skel1983 Guest

    Verdasco to beat Ferrer 3-1 at Bet365 mate is 4.33 and same result to lay at Betfair is 4.8.

    Any good mate?
     
    skel1983, Sep 7, 2010
    skel1983, Sep 7, 2010
    #6109
  5. skel1983

    skel1983 Guest

    If you want bit smaller odds:

    Ferrer to win at bet365: 2.20

    Lay Ferrer at betfair: 2.24
     
    skel1983, Sep 7, 2010
    skel1983, Sep 7, 2010
    #6110
  6. TFFP

    TFFP The Eskimo

    45,002
    4
    Nov 28, 2007
    Yeah but what if Verdasco does not beat Ferrer 3-1? I just lose both stakes and my £25 bonus sucks compared to the money I just lost ;)
    I mean I could easily do it on Wawrinka/Querrey but I'd lose a big chunk of the bonus especially cos I'd have to use Betfair and the fact I have to bet £86.25 to release it hurts me a bit in that respect with the odds AND the 5%.

    In an ideal world I'd find something where I can get Evens and there is just 2 possible outcomes. Like an over/under or outright on tennis or boxing but theres nothing immediately obvious atm.
     
    TFFP, Sep 7, 2010
    TFFP, Sep 7, 2010
    #6111
  7. WalletInspector

    WalletInspector Obsessed with Boxing banned

    21,194
    2
    Jan 1, 2010
    How do you claim that mate?
     
    WalletInspector, Sep 7, 2010
    WalletInspector, Sep 7, 2010
    #6112
  8. skel1983

    skel1983 Guest

    Sorry mate I don't think were on the same page here are you talking about match betting? Where you back and lay to get the free bet? then you back and lay the free bet off to make a precentage of the free bet without no risk??

    But what i mean is back the 3-1 scoreline with bet365 then lay it off on betfair so you can't loos only a slight bit of the bonus, I usually like to make 70% of the bonus I have a claculater if you want that works out how much you need to lay to make a no risk profit.
     
    skel1983, Sep 7, 2010
    skel1983, Sep 7, 2010
    #6113
  9. skel1983

    skel1983 Guest

    I have made about £680 last say six weeks just abusing the free bet on all sites. by laying the same bet i backed with betdaq or betfair but havent got any money at the moment to carry on, there is probably good £2000 to be made from this.
     
    skel1983, Sep 7, 2010
    skel1983, Sep 7, 2010
    #6114
  10. TFFP

    TFFP The Eskimo

    45,002
    4
    Nov 28, 2007
    So...

    £86.25 @ Bet365 wins £103.50

    Lay £86.64 @ Betfair risks £107.44

    Profit/Loss = £-3.94

    Does that seem the correct way to do it? Why does the calculator tell me to put £86.64? :huh

    I could take losing 4 quid of the 25.
     
    TFFP, Sep 7, 2010
    TFFP, Sep 7, 2010
    #6115
  11. TFFP

    TFFP The Eskimo

    45,002
    4
    Nov 28, 2007
    Ah, I think I understand. It's so I lose the same for whatever outcome.
     
    TFFP, Sep 7, 2010
    TFFP, Sep 7, 2010
    #6116
  12. skel1983

    skel1983 Guest

    Sorry Wires crossed basically what I do is for instance WillHill place £25 on the phone get a free £50 bet so I put £25 on United to beat Toon few weeks back at 1.25, I then layed them for 1.24 on Betfair so I have both outcomes covererd, so I am either winning or loosing 25p if United win or don't win.

    They won so I was 25p up now I have a free £50 bet so now to get the biggest percentage of this £50 ( like I say I like to aim at 70% plus I look for big odds around 5 or 6/1 to maxamise this, you do exactly the same as the qualifying bet back then lay an outcome covering all results with similar odds but you don't place the same money there is a calculater that works this out for you.


    Here it is

    http://www.thepoorhouse.org.uk/matched_betting_calculator

    So for this one I am now placing £50 free bet so say I have backed Djokovic to win the Us open at Wills for 5/1 I have layed him same price at Betfair:

    You are recommended to lay against a stake of £50.25 in your betting exchange.
    The amount of money you'll need in your lay account to cover the risk is £251.26
    If you win the backed bet and hence lose the lay you will receive £48.74
    If you lose the backed bet and hence win the lay you will receive £48.74

    This is what the calculater told me to do....

    So without risking anything other than human error I am £48.74 up for basically no risk only think u need is a nice bankroll to cover the lay in the betfair account, i Have spreadsheets on all of this with bookies and there bonus offers, like I say with new accounts you can make easily 2k off this maybe a little more.
     
    skel1983, Sep 7, 2010
    skel1983, Sep 7, 2010
    #6117
  13. TFFP

    TFFP The Eskimo

    45,002
    4
    Nov 28, 2007
    I understand the concept now. Good idea! :yep

    I've done it now anyway. Seems I could have done better odds wise if I'd looked longer but Ferrer/Verdasco it is. I'm too impatient to wait and wanted to do it tonight :-(

    2.2/2.24 can't be too bad. I'm gonna lose £3.94 of the bonus due to commission on Betfair and the size of the stakes more than the odds.
     
    TFFP, Sep 7, 2010
    TFFP, Sep 7, 2010
    #6118
  14. skel1983

    skel1983 Guest


    Not to bad then mate. Who you see winning in todays matches?
     
    skel1983, Sep 7, 2010
    skel1983, Sep 7, 2010
    #6119
  15. TFFP

    TFFP The Eskimo

    45,002
    4
    Nov 28, 2007
    Tough one...Verdasco would win if he's 90% on it because he has a better game compared to the one dimensional Ferrer but you never know with him, I've seen him play great matches and then look completely woeful, I remember him having one of the worst matches I've ever seen last year at the US Open. The unforced errors and double faults were off the charts. One tough thing is these two havn't really got a hard court meeting worth talking about, the last was 2004 which is meaningless. I see us having a great indication of how this match will go after 8 games just by seeing how Verdasco starts because its more in his hands than Ferrer.

    At least you know what you get from Ferrer and for 6/5 I think he's not a bad pick in that respect. I think Ferrer and over 39.5 games are reasonable bets because the margins in this are so small its a really difficult prediction to make so the value is there to bet Ferrer.

    Querrey to beat Wawrinka.
     
    TFFP, Sep 7, 2010
    TFFP, Sep 7, 2010
    #6120
Page 408 of 1430