British Forum BETTING thread

True.

I think laptops should come with breathalysers or something for times like that.

Me too.

Given that Mosley does better the shorter layoff he has I'm half expecting to come out and stick one on Mora. To me it's a safe fight to come back with before maybe facing Cotto again.

It's not like they could move Mora if he wins, it's hardly a ''passing of the torch'' fight.

 

Despite saying I thought it was tough to gage where each fighther would be I did consider that point. These match ups don't get made for nothing do they . . .

 

On the other hand Mosley might labour to a decision...... there is a bit of intrigue in it but I can't see Shane losing to a fighter like Mora.

Must be something about losing to Mayweather that makes many people think someone is done, a bit like Marquez was supposedly done too.

The bookies have priced the ''to win'' odds quite well, I'd make it a little wider - but it's a tempter for people not sure enough about the method of victory to shove a lump on.

 

Any PL picks for this weekend?

I had my first outing on the football this week in Europe and starting to get a taste for it again. Came out dead level after Athletic Madrid let me down in a 3/1 three fold in the Europa, Marseille let me down in a 12/1 5 fold in the Champions League but Lyon came good in a single at 10/11. All small bets to test the water so early in the season and I think it will remain that way for a few weeks yet but I can't stay out for any longer.

Nothing placed yet but I'm considering one or two from this list of fairly high prices:

Stoke - 10/11
Blackburn - EVENS
Birmingham - 9/4
Everton - 8/13
Man Utd/Liverpool - Under 2.5 goals - 3/4
Chelsea -2.5 - 1.825

 

Going to have a proper look later on. Will say, I think Everton should be favorites but are too short priced, Newcastle at 5/1 is pretty decent value.

 

Looking like we could be as unpredictable this season as Wigan were last year at this rate so it might not be too bad a shout!

 

I agree on Blackburn. 11/10 some places. Fulham without Zamora, I don't really see them scoring to be honest.

 

That was my thinking. Hughes' team don't score lots of goals generally but up against a typical Allardyce team and without their main goal threat I think they will struggle. Blackburn looked good in losing to Arsenal a couple of games ago and did well getting a result at Eastlands last time out.

 

And another

Houston Texans (-3.0) @ Washington

EVENS:huh To me this is stupid value. The Texans have a top 3 reciever, a top 5 TE, and Aarian Foster who rushed for over 200 yards and 3 scores in week 1. Washington were lucky to beat Dallas and I dont think they can score enough points.

Punch,

Instead of trebles I was going to poor the money on one of these bets. Am I being blinded by something with Texans or is this worth a £100?

 

houston had a big win last week a long overdue success against the colts and i agree that houston are the stronger team in nearly every department on offence, however i was impressed with the skins defence last week against dallas and for that reason i would avoid this game,
bol to you mate if you do make a play

 

Anyone having an accy on the fights tomorrow night?

 

chisoras 11/10 with betfred to win by ko/tko/disq
be sure to keep it under a ton if you are doing it in the shops otherwise they phone it through and only offer you £50 at 11/10

 

Anyone else think Shane at 1.44 (ish) to beat Mora is buying money? Mora is a terrible fighter. Shane did look old against Floyd but he is one of the greatest of all time and Mora is nowhere near as good. Only way he can try to win is by throwing his arm punches and out working Shane. Mora is a lighter version of Calslappy. I think Shane is a huge price.

 

Two very similar bets this weekend with two sides who have excellent long term home records. We are obviously taking a few things on trust as most of the stats are based on last season but both sides have already shown strong signs that they are seemingly carrying on last seasons form this season and they are both value bets IMO.


Recommended Bets

Date of Game: Saturday 18th September
Game: Blackburn Rovers v Fulham - kick-off 3.00pm
Competition: Premier League

Selection: Blackburn to win

Best Price
2.1 with Ladbrokes, WilliamHill, PaddyPower, Victor Chandler, Skybet

Next Best Prices
2.07 with 5Dimes, Sportbet, IASbet
2.05 with Pinnacle, SBObet, Expekt, Nordicbet, Centrebet, BetPhoenix, Circlebet, Interwetten, Betsson, Greek, Jenningsbet
2.04 with Chronicle, 188bet, 12bet, Mansion88, Fun88, Canbet, Admiralbet

Reasoning: Since Sam Allardyce took over Blackburn in December 08, they have shown a total home record of P32, W16, D11, L5, F47, A28. Thats a pretty impressive record.

When narrowed down further to just when they are home to anyone bar the "big 8" their record is P18, W12, D6, L0, F34, A11. Blackburn have scored 2 or more goals in 14 of those 18 games. They have kept clean sheets in 10 of the 18.

They look to be keeping up their very solid home record so far this season with a 1-0 against Everton on the opening day and a narrow 2-1 defeat to Arsenal which is obviously no disgrace.

Fulham have a traditionally poor away record. Their last away win was way back on the opening day of last season against Portsmouth. Scoring goals away from home seems to be a problem for them. In 2010 they have only scored 5 goals in 12 Premier League away games. I appreciate that Mark Hughes is now in charge but it is basically the same set of players.

With Blackburns strong home defensive record and the loss of Bobby Zamora it might be tough for Fulham to put the ball in the back of the net and Blackburn look value to me.


--------------------------------------------

Date of Game: Sunday 19th September
Game: Sampdoria v Napoli - kick-off 7.45pm
Competition: Serie A

Selection: Sampdoria to win

Best Price
2.26 with Chronicle, 12bet, Mansion88, Fun88

Next Best Prices
2.25 with Pinnacle, 5Dimes, Sportbet, 188bet, BetFred, BetPhoenix, WilliamHill, BlueSq, 888bet, Bet365, Circlebet, Betsson, Jenningsbet
2.23 with SBObet, Canbet

Reasoning: Sampdoria have a ridiculously good long term home record. They last lost a Serie A home game on the 18th January 2009 - 30 games ago!

They have averaged almost 2 goals scored per game at home since that defeat but they are also very strong at the back. They have conceded an average of just 0.79 goals per home game in those 30 games and have conceded just 3 goals in their last 10 home games (winning 9 of those 10). They started this season as they left off with a 2-0 win over Lazio in their first home game of the season.

Napoli are a solid enough side and its not beyond the realms of poosibility they could get something here. Their away record in the same period as Samp are unbeaten is P28, W6, D10, L12, F32, A42. Not fantastic but not awful either. However they tend to fall short when away to a really strong home side.

Their away record the last two seasons when they have faced a side who averages 2 points or more per home game is P13, W0, D2, L11, F11, A25, including a 1-0 defeat at Sampdoria on the last day of last season.

Overall I think Samp are overpriced at their current odds.

 

From the email I get every week.

'Stats of the Week'...

Our outstanding stats this week are for the big game at Old Trafford on
Sunday afternoon...

Man Utd v Liverpool
Referee: H. Webb

• Last season 84% (16/19) of Man United's home games
  went Over 2.5 Goals
• So far this season all 4 of Man United's Premier League
  games have gone Over 2.5 Goals
• The past 3 Man United v Liverpool meetings at Old Trafford
  have all gone Over 2.5 Goals

Each team has now played 4 Premier League games, meaning there's
a bit more form in the book. So for the first time this season I've
included my Perfect Ten match result picks based purely on the stats. But that's not all, new for this season I will also include the best stats
based bet from the following categories - Goals, Corners, Booking
Points and Cards - for each game.

Game​

Match Result ​

Stats Bet ​

Stoke v West Ham ​

Stoke​

Over 2.5 Goals​

Aston Villa v Bolton​

Aston Villa ​

Over 10.5 Corners​

Blackburn v Fulham​

Draw​

Blackburn Most Booking Points​

Everton v Newcastle​

Everton​

Newcastle First Card​

Tottenham v Wolves​

Tottenham​

Wolves Most Booking Points​

West Brom v Birmingham​

Draw​

Over 3.5 Cards​

Sunderland v Arsenal​

Draw​

Arsenal Most Corners​

Man Utd v Liverpool​

Man Utd ​

Over 2.5 Goals​

Wigan v Man City​

Man City ​

Under 3.5 Cards​

Chelsea v Blackpool​

Chelsea​

Chelsea 'Win To Nil'​