Only way Margarito will lose to Pacquiao is on his back. If Pacquiao don't Knock him out this fight will be close. Tony will die in the ring, Manny better be prepared to kill. (Lets stop pretending like Pac has Whitaker skills to pull a UD)
It's going to end in a TKO (most likely for Manny), I do see a very small chance of Marga trapping Manny on the ropes and getting a stoppage.
People if this fight is going to be thrown it won't have been arranged already! If Margarito is going to get extra gains to lose graciously, this will be done closer to the fight. This means there is less chance of a leak and ensures Margarito trains hard, says the right things during camp and looks top notch on fight night. If there is suspicion during or after the fight that it was fixed, people will lose any little faith they may have had left in Margarito and then his career truly will be down the pan, so i don't think its happening. Margarito cannot afford to step aside for the cash cow, for him this is Cotto all over again, his last chance saloon, except this time he isn't trying to put his career on another platau, he's trying to prove the whole world wrong!
Personally I think it's impossible for Margo to win on points. Margo starts slow, giving Manny say 4 early rounds in the bag. Manny has a high work rate also so although Margo's may be higher, that won't be the deciding factor in winning the rounds. Manny is going to look slicker and flashier, and he is going to consistently land eye catching combo's and bombs. The judges may hold a grudge against Margo. However, to answer OP's question, get some money on Margo by TKO/KO/DQ, you'll get odds of about 7 or 8-1.
With Margarito's conditiong for this fight, his heart, his cardio, his chin, and defensive improvements he's made with trainer Robert Garcia...I don't see Pacquiao finishing Margarito. David Diaz was a bum. De La Hoya was shot/weight drained. Hatton wasnt in proper shape mentally or physically (with his training camp and the beating floyd mayweather put on him) and the fight was at 140 pounds. Cotto did some good work early, but Manny broke him mentally by round 5. Joshua Clottey didn't come to win the fight, and stylstically didn't threaten pacquiao. I've never been all that impressed by Margarito's skillset. I think Pacquiao is significantly faster. I think Pacquiao will land at will, particularly early. I think Pacquiao's footwork and head movement are levels ahead of margarito. But at the end of the day...Is Pacquiao invincible? The boxing public and casual fans have it in their heads that he is after his last 5 fights in which he DOMINATED opponents. However, boxing history has taught us that nobody is invincible. Particularly, when their opponent has competent skills and a huge chip on his shoulder. I'm sold that Margarito will die in the ring for his cause. Pacquiao is going to be in a fight in my opinion...He has the cardio/workrate/movement to realize this won't be an easy fight in the mid rounds, and go for a decision. However, is Manny's mind mentally prepared for a tough fight? I know manny is extremely mentally strong and has great cardio. But I feel like pacquiao and manny roach are severely underestimating margarito. I'm convinced this will be the best margarito we've ever seen. I'm convinced Pacquiao won't be near the level he was at in his last 4 fights when he was in consistent training camps with little rest between fights leading to vast improvements. Should be fun.
“It has to do with the opposition,” Ariza said. “When Manny was fighting Cotto, you’re looking at a guy who was very, very good, and potentially a not beatable opponent. A big puncher, a bigger guy, a stronger guy, (and Pacquiao) moving up to a new weight class. Cotto had everything going for him against Manny and we had everything going against us. So Manny took that a lot more serious, his approach to that fight was different. ‘I’ll seclude myself away. I’m going to focus on getting myself up early. I’m going to leave no rock unturned. I’m going to train every way to prepare for a guy like this.’” "You know Manny is a thinker now. Before in the past he was just reckless, just go in there like a soldier. Now he’s a thinker, he’s watching tape, he’s studying Margarito and he’s thinking, ‘I can beat this guy. Maybe not only on my best day, but maybe even on my s___tiest day I can still beat this guy.” Pretty much every big upset in boxing history sprung from the superior fighter having this mindset.
Nothing to think about. Margarito, through ignorance or wit (case not closed on either), was pummeling opponents with illegal handwraps. Now, consdering how badly he was beaten by old ass Shane Mosley, PEDs or not, tells you he will not fare well against Pacquiao. Cotto is a different thing. You have to keep in mind that Pacquiao hits a helluva lot harder than Cotto does. Cotto carries Jr.Welter power. He doesn't carry Jr.Middle power. Pacquiao we know at least carries welterweight power. Same as Shane Mosley. We know how that turned out for Margarito last time out. Margarito would typically enjoy a stamina advantage over most opponents. Not over Pacquiao. Rest assured. This is in the bag for the Pacman.