The Small Reason Why Manny Pacquiao May Beat Floyd Mayweather

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By Patrick White: At present the most anticipated possible fight in the sport of boxing is Manny Pacquiao versus Floyd Mayweather. The interest centres on a number of interrelated factors. They are by most accounts the two best pound-for-pound boxers in the world. They have very different boxing styles; with Pacquiao being primarily an offensive fighter, and Mayweather being primarily defensive. They also have contrasting personalities. While Pacquiao is generally polite and humble, Mayweather is often brash and self-aggrandizing. But who is likely to win should they ever agree to fight?

The deciding factor in my opinion will centre on Pacquiao’s unique ability to throw high and low punches within a single combination, without changing his body position, and whilst moving forward or standing still. That is, the way he can throw a head-shot and then within the same sequence of punches follow it up with a body shot – or throw a body shot followed by a headshot – without moving his head or torso very significantly, and at the same time remaining stationary or advancing towards his opponent. Hopefully readers will know what I am trying to describe here, but if not have a look at Pacquiao’s fight with Antonio Margarito and keep an eye out for this move.


A close analysis of Mayweather’s defence will help to explain why I think Pacquiao’s ability to quickly transition between high and low punches may prove decisive. When an opponent is attacking Mayweather’s head or upper-body he almost always remains stationary, standing with his legs wide apart so that he can more effectively duck and dodge the oncoming punches. Although a wide leg stance is extremely effective against punches targeted at ones head and shoulders – because it increases the degree to which one can lean his or her body in any given direction – it is far less effective at defending against punches thrown at the body. This is because the degree of lean progressively decreases from the head downwards – i.e. you can lean your head further than your abdomen – therefore making it more difficult for a boxer to move their lower body away from an oncoming punch, than it would be for them to move their head away from a punch. (This is the – or at least, a – reason why Mayweather utilizes the Philly Shell arm guard when defending in this manner, as the more orthodox higher arm guard would leave his lower body too exposed). By contrast, when an opponent targets Mayweather’s lower body, he tends to drop his Philly Shell arm guard very low and/or uses his feet to evade the forthcoming punches.

With this understood I think it is clear that Mayweather would have serious problems with Pacquiao’s unusual capacity to transition seamlessly between throwing high and low punches within the same combination. If Pacquiao started a combination by throwing punches at Mayweather’s head, for example, Mayweather would automatically adopt a wide leg stance and Philly Shell arm guard, and attempt to bob and weave away from Pacquiao’s headshots. The problem for Mayweather would be that this would leave him open to getting hit when Pacquiao suddenly and un-expectantly threw a quick body shot during the same sequence.

Alternatively, if Pacquiao were to open up a flurry with a series of body shots, Mayweather would bring his arm-guard lower down and attempt to evade the punches on foot, which would then leave his head exposed when Pacquiao threw a headshot within the same combination – something which, as I mentioned above, he is fully capable of doing when moving forward.

While this may seem like a very minor point, I think this weakness in Mayweather’s defence relative to Pacquiao’s unusual offensive ability to quickly and seamlessly transition between high and low punches could be the difference that separates two otherwise evenly matched fighters. Indeed, I think this argument is given support by Mayweather’s recent fight with Shane Mosley. During the second round of that fight, the first of the two big right hands that Mosley landed on Mayweather – and which very nearly knocked him out – occurred after Mosley threw a low jab towards Mayweather’s abdomen. As I suggested would happen with Pacquiao should they meet, Mayweather dropped his hands to defend against this jab and was then subsequently caught with a straight right hand to the head. Pacquiao is faster, younger and able to switch between high and low shots more seamlessly than Mosley, why then would he not be able to consistently land this same type of shot? For this reason I predict that Pacquiao would beat Mayweather should they ever meet in the squared circle.