GSP's jab, straight right hand, and footwork may very well spell doom for Shields. I will not be surprised if they do. I won't be surprised if they are enough for GSP to win in the first couple rounds. I rank GSP as the best ever at 170, so his defeating anyone at this weight is no upset for me. I also recognize Shields' grappling skills. Shields handled Henderson like he was nobody. I think GSP's BJJ skills are better than Henderson's, and that he could fare better on his back than Henderson did. I still believe that Shields outmatches Pierre here. Pierre is going to want to keep this standing. I doubt we see GSP attempt a takedown. I have a hard time seeing Jake get past GSP's one-two. I also think Shieds's chances for winning a decision are nearly impossible over 3 rounds. Good thing for him this bout is scheduled for 5. If Shields makes it to the 3rd round, and is able to close the distance; things could get very interesting.
Good analysis but you have to understand that the Hendo we saw maybe a drained Hendo. No one handles a well condition Hendo like that. He was mysteriously winded after the 1st round and even so, he still had Shields reeling. At this point, I dont see any problem with GSP being in Sheilds guard either. His always conservative gameplan may want to avoid that but I think it makes no difference either way. As for the later rounds, this is where GSP shines because his Cardio is freakish. Sheilds on the other hand..hmmm.
I don't disagree about GSP's cardio. Pierre is always in great shape. It's just that I don't envision Shields getting this far in a typical GSP fight. I think if Shields gets this far; he has forced numerous scrambles, had some positional success, and will have made Pierre work harder than previous opponents. Also, I can't hold Shields' conditioning into question based solely on his performance against Kampmann. Shields had been at 185 for 2 years, and I believe the weight cut hurt him. I've never seen Shields tire, and he looked exhausted after the 1st round. Shields seemed to be able to take Kampmann where he wanted, but he looked to gassed to finish.
Well, Fitch went that far. He sure didnt pose any threat. Its GSP that really dictates how far he wants to take this fight. He doesnt want to take too much risks, then Shields makes it thru the 5th. As far as Shields cardio , I agree, thats why I made the same assumption with Hendo. Both lackluster performance were eerily similar as a result of cutting too much. Even last night, it was mentioned how Hendo seemed so much more comfy w/o worrying about the weight cut.
The armbar part could be possible, imo unlikely. But the first round part is really questionnable. Locking a submission on a fresh/explosive GSP is no easy task. :nut
I was exaggerating! But I want to go with the underdog on this one. Shields is far better than most give him credit for, and I think he has a reasonable shot at this one. I will go with Jake in this fight based upon the fact that people give him no shot at all and I see him as a serious threat. On the ground, if he can get top control I can see shields pulling out a win. On the ground I believe shields is superior, getting there is the problem.
Shields win over Henderson makes NO SENSE. There is no other fight that defies explanation as much as that one.
Shields doesn't have to be the "better grappler", the truth is he shouldn't be the favorite or even considered better on the ground than GSP at this point. BUT he IS good enough to be competitive and capitalize on any of GSP's mistakes and in MMA, that goes a long way. If he troubles GSP even a little on his feet, this fight will go to the ground and there it can get very very interesting.
I think he struggled with the weight for the fight no doubt, but to be fair to Shields, Hendo absolutely destroyed Bisping in the previous fight which was also at 185.