I want to say something like a 40% chance, but this is like the only fight that I can't make a prediction for.. Would like for Wlad to win though..
People shouldn't let their discontent towards Haye cloud their judgement of his capabilities. He has a very good chance of causing an upset. Do not be too shocked if you see Wladimir laid out on the canvas or helplessly laying against the ropes as the ref waves it off, because Haye can make that happen. But with that said, I'll be going for a Wladimir UD win.
Depends how he fights; Haye needs to slip the jab & counter with timed bombs & vicious combinations at close range. If tries to run & pot-shot then Wlad jabs him all night & maybe closes the show late, when he has the courage to throw a huge bomb on his exhausted opponent.