British Forum BETTING thread

As said, Wlad could discourage Haye enough with the jab but not be mobile enough to finish the job inside the distance.

 

It's mostly due to the market disparity really, Boyles have him at 7/2 but the next longest is 7/4. I could see him being retired on his stool late on tbh

 

do you really think haye would let himself lose a decision, if hes still standing in the 12th he might as well go ape****

 

Its what some fans think should happen in the last round of a fight but it rarely happens in practice.

 

Alternatively you could just lay Haye by decision. There is a very slim chance Haye wins by decision.

 

Hence him laying it- backing it not happening

 

So you're risking £2000 to make a profit of £250 if Wlad wins by stoppage and £1000 if Haye does... Considering you lose if either wins a decision, it's a draw, theres a technical decision etc then i'd say that its pretty poor, it's a lot to risk for a relatively small return imo. If you're that confident the bet's going to come in why not take the 'fight not to go the distance' prop at 2/5, to those stakes you'd make £200 less if Haye wins by stoppage, but £550 more if Wlad does, plus your covered for any outcome inside the distance i.e. a technical decision... Personaly I'm with everyone saying it's just not a great bet in general, though if your going to do it i think 'fight not to go the distance is more sensible than dutching both by stoppage

 

3/10 for the fight not to last the distance...so you could Lay it not going the distance to "cover yourself" I guess if you got your numbers sorted...

 

First you've got to get someone to match you at those odds, currently you can only lay it at 1.9 on betfair, Second, even if he got matched at 3/10 which is very unlikely as you can get 2/5, it won't work.

 

Wait until near the fight, I just checked oddschecker and certainly say the norm to be around 3/10, though I'm sure their will be better available come fight time. I'm pretty certain the 1.9 will drop when the fight is actually set in stone.

 

you can get 2/5 at Ladbrokes and only one book has it on Oddschecker but the main thing is it still doesn't work, assuming he dutched both by KO and could somehow get a lay matched at 2/7 he'd break even, work it out mate, i know what your suggesting but it just doesn't work out, as your essentially suggesting he backs both sides of the same bet by using worse odds (taking both by stoppage)... Not trying to be a twat, but if he follows you he at worst ties up money for a few months with no return and at worst loses 2.5k...

 

It's 2 AM and my maths sucks, but looking at laying nearer the time will help. Odds for "will the fight go the distance" on odds checker are for paddypower only (3/10) and betfair (1/10). I know you're not being a twat and I'm certainly not suggesting put anything on this early, I wouldn't put it on until the night of the fight as I still see this fight not taking place.

 

Lol, tbf i was using a dutching/hutching calculator... yeah the line will probably come in so laying nearer the time would help, although obviously you'd need to back the 'fight not to go the distance now' in order to do that.

 

I'll be doing 2 bets:

Wlad rounds 7-9 at 15/2: bet 100 wins 850
Wlad rounds 9-12 at 17/2: bet 100 wins 950

I can see Wlads game plan as wearing down Haye before opening up and taking him out when it gets tired in the latter half. I can't see him trying to get him out of there while he is still dangerous and has lots of energy. He'll jab until he wears him out.

The biggest risk imo is that he takes him out before that but you want a decent profit margin so to bet on the second half of the fight I think is the best balance between the two.

OP, it's not a bad bet. I really don't think this fight will go the distance. They are two chinny knockout artists and as somebody already said, why would Haye just leave the fight run the distance without going gung ho. Haye's stamina is **** and there's always the possibility his team will throw in the towel if he's taking too much punishment. Of course there's a minor chance of Haye causing the upset and scoring you a nice win. I'd say go for it.

 

Haye is not that kind of fighter. He'll bottle it if it goes that way, I think he'd prefer not to get stopped again.