Full & Accurate Translation of JMM's Pacquiao Breakdown Video if you're interested

The problem with that is, I don't see Mayweather having enough lateral movement to pull it off. He doesn't circle or pivot out in-between exchanges. His performance against Judah was masterful, adopting a disruptive pressure strategy-but to do that he'd have to corner Pacquiao, and I just don't think he'd have it. Backing Pacquiao up is certainly a way to beat him, but it often requires a volume that Floyd hasn't habituated himself to. A side-note, Judah was able to land at least one eye-catching shot in almost every one of those rounds, and Pacquiao is superior to him in almost every area, most importantly able to capitalize and reset an attack after finding success. Pac's body will be more elusive, and his aggression much less timeable. Floyd can be oversensitive to feints, and Pacquiao, as JMM noted, can be quite tricky in this area. Floyd isn't an idiot and may catch on, but that's just one factor of the game.

Floyd certainly has certain stylistic advantages, but disrupting Pac's rhythm by trying to control him is a lot harder than using his own erratic pace against him. I think there will be shots Mayweather lands that makes Pacquiao look straight DUMB...but overall I don't think Floyd has the style to best utilize his advantages for this particular match-up. He does best either laying back on the inside or advancing and retreating in straight lines, studying his opponent and measuring their shots against his, using his reach, reflexes, and timing. I daresay Floyd can often be a bit flat-footed and stationary, always trying to snipe. If he is out-sped on his feet , he'll have trouble setting the pace, and then we'll see if Mayweather can flow with and against the storm that is Manny Pacquiao the same way Marquez managed to do. Circling left while swaying the body and head, with that hypnotic left hand diverting the gaze and poised to parry & counter...it just isn't Floyd. You are absolutely right in showing the opposite nature of their counter-punching styles, but I think this highlights a potential weakness in Floyd.

If he tries to come forward, which he's likely to do at some point and he's pretty good at it, Pac and Roach may try and use Pacquiao's counter-punching to offset the predictable arsenal and habits Mayweather employs when coming forward. Measure with the jab, lead rights, steady steps forward (flat-footed), high guard with the body exposed, and sticking his chin out when throwing single or double before falling in to tie up and get some body shots in. Mayweather also throws crisp, but singular jabs, which Judah counter-hooks repeatedly. As a lead, Mayweather takes it away that punch with right hands. But as a counter, it was there all night.

We'll just have to wait, hope, and see.

 

I actually think the DLH fight exposes this habit. Straight lines nearly the whole time, that's why Floyd only won around 7-5 and got caught against the ropes so often. He adjusted, he won comfortably, but he did not change the angle often. Pac doesn't have the jab to back Mayweather up like that, but as Roach stated, the jab as a dynamic changes and loses its pace-setting characteristics somewhat when orthodox vs southpaw alignment is introduced. Pac has become a master at slipping a jab and filling that open space with his left, and circling right again. Mayweather's single jab and sedentary waiting seems that this process could find success.

 

He's very diverse, but I ask you to point to a fight where he does more than use his advantages going straight forward or back. He let Hatton come to him and outworked him on the inside where he's brilliant, but I'm not saying he doesn't have many tools and ways to break down a fighter, he just does them all usually from a limited set of angles.

What I'm talking about in the DLH fight is him measuring DLH right in front of him after adapting to his strategy. But-no circling, no lateral movement. He eats a lot of jabs, times them with rights in the center of the ring, DLH stops throwing them as much, but Floyd fails to neutralize them with any lateral movement as his first choice of tactical employment.

Look at Hopkins-Pavlik, a defensive fighter whose slick both on the outside and the inside, and Pavlik, a stiff-jabbing offensive fighter- and then look at Mayweather-DLH.

[ame]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GRREO4lj5D0[/ame]

Hopkins turns Pavlik, changes the punching angle, controls him with the jab and counters him, and hits on the move. There is a lot of lateral movement involved in his display, both offensively and defensively. Now, Pavlik is not DLH and Mayweather is not Hopkins, but that's kind of my point- Mayweather fights in straight lines, all there is to it. He's not a plodder who can't move to the side when he needs to, I'm not saying that, but it's not a habitual motion or a significant element of his arsenal within his last 6 or 7 significant fights at least.

[ame]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=55czSCHTQfU[/ame]

Look how easily he is backed up and how neutralized he is when overly forced on the back-foot. And DLH isn't even doing anything dramatically impressive besides advancing with a tight guard, feinting, and jabbing. I give Floyd props for this win, don't get me wrong, but what I'm saying about his style rings true. No style is immune to weaknesses. Even when he's winning, it's when hes controlling the pace and picking his shots straight in front of him. Coming forward, Pac can be erratic and difficult to time, and has the athletic ability to get off first at least a good amount of times-and when Pac gets off, he follows up with volume. Nacho said it himself -"You hit him (Floyd) with one or two punches, he's fine, but more than that and he loses a step." It won't be the same as with DLH-a stiff orthodox jab- but his offense will be measured and difficult to control. Floyd's preferred stance may be forced to change, and he might have to pull something out of the old PBF handbook to gain more points.

 

I'm not saying Mayweather is neutralized completely, I'm saying he's less effective when he can't control the pace. He may have landed the more effective shots in a majority of rounds, but to say it wasn't very competitive would be false. Of course DLH had natural advantages in reach and size that he could put behind a jab, but this was not the only dynamic to his partial success. He was hard to control, not entirely predictable and timeable, and was able to corner Floyd fairly easily. I'm not implying Floyd should have lost, what I'm concluding is that assuming Floyd will be able to pivot out and bounce around because he's taller isn't applicable if he hasn't done it in his last seven fights against slower opponents. He's habituated to standing in front, picking shots, and being defensively reflexive at range.

Pac's rhythm is sophisticated, and Floyd's sensitivity to feints makes him vulnerable to this kind of attack. Not only does Pac punch at unconventional angles, he has good head movement and footspeed, and loves to circle to change the angle. If Floyd cant time him with his single jabs or right leads, he'll start backing up- or later on, coming forward Judah/Shane style- but in a straight line. If he starts leaning on the back foot too much, he'll be trapped everytime Pac lands a left. Look how he shuts down whenever DLH rushes him. Floyd doesn't step back and weave out, he just kind of bends down and stays there before trying to hold. JMM in that situation would have ducked out, changed the angle, and come back with something.

My point in bringing up Hopkins and Pavlik is that while DLH is faster, his footspeed isn't dramatically faster than Pavlik's at this stage in his career. Hopkins has less athletic advantages than Mayweather, but has a similar diversity. His approach to dealing with the jab and singular offense is LATERAL. Floyd's is more stationary. My point is while he could time and out-speed a past-it DLH, he did it while losing rounds and getting forced onto the backfoot at times without a mobile response. He won-that's not the issue. It's how he won-fighting in straight lines without circling, and whether he would win doing the same thing against an erratic, feinting, bobbing, speedy southpaw with good timing and the ability to change the angle in a heartbeat. It's just one weakness Pac can exploit, it may not win him the fight, but it's certainly there and I'm just pointing it out.

 

Trust me, there are some straight up HATERS of the man for no good reason.

 

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