A look ahead at Light Heavyweight.

Hopkins claims he will fight until he's 50. OK,

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After that? The division's not very fertile at the moment. The top ten is arguably as diluted as the much-maligned corresponding list at HW.


Top names after BHOP include:

"Bad" Chad Dawson (USA - maybe the #2 guy after Hopkins right now; considered a huge talent pegged at one time by PBF as a top 2-3 pound for pound boxer in the world...but one who does "just enough" and isn't apt to endear himself as a big star. He will likely "inherit" the division when Hopkins retires becoming the #1 guy by default, owing more to the lack of depth behind him than to his own merits. His southpaw stance & blazing fast combinations make him look extraordinary against select opposition, but he seems to lack the mental resolve to "change gears" when challenged - much like the infamous Rocky Juarez. He is also guilty of earning his combo speed at the expense of sharpness by "slapping" - much like the infamous Joe Calzaghe. He frequently pauses to admire his work, which is admittedly something to admire when he is working).

Jean Pascal (Canada - the man Hopkins outfought twice, going 1-0-1 against. His only prior loss was to Carl Froch down at SMW, but he has looked far from unbeatable and is perhaps the most vulnerable of the Big 3 to both knockout and decision losses with his reckless free-swinging style, and his propensity to only compete in brief intervals with lots of time off. He has an even greater tendency than Dawson to not provide a full three minutes of effort. He hyper-concentrates his offense on short and ferocious flurries in which he shows off breath-taking displays of hand-speed that require slow-motion replay to fully enumerate his punches thrown...and unlike Bad Chad he does NOT sacrifice power to gain his speed. He has the athleticism to leap halfway across a twenty foot ring and get off fifteen damaging power punches in five seconds. The problem is that he will do this once or twice in a round and otherwise loaf.)

Tavoris "Thunder" Cloud (USA - looks like a beast at times, and very pedestrian at others. In the ring, he is more active than Dawson & Pascal and generally has one of the better work-rates at 175. Outside the ring, he has suffered from long bouts of inactivity and his performances coming back from layoffs have tended to be lackluster; frustrating for fans who have hyped him up during his absences. He has good power and considerable physical strength compared to his peers, but is not a consistently effective finisher. He looked positively dreadful in his last outing against the mediocre-at-his-peak and now rather shot Zuniga, and even his vaunted work-rate suffered somewhat as he struggled with minimal spoiling. This was without having the excuse of a year-long vacation as in his previous few appearances, only four months since he'd eked out a close win over tough vet Glen Johnson)


Fringe guys with a slim chance of making it to that upper echelon:

Nathan Cleverly (UK - the former sparring partner and supposed heir apparent to fellow Welshman Joe Calzaghe. He has been matched very well, cutting his teeth on increasingly better opponents in the last three years en route to the world level. He surprised many by outclassing Karo Murat in an eliminator, setting up a title shot against Jurgen Braehmer when the eccentric German pulled out of a third fight in a year. Cleverly was left to deal with light-hitting Pole Aleksy Kuziemski, who hurt him badly in the third round before a woeful cuts stoppage in the fourth prompting much suspicious criticism of the official. Cleverly does not have much of a jab to speak of, and relies on constant movement and rapidly successive barrages of hard combos to get the job done. He doesn't have loads of power, and with his leaky defense and suspect chin his tendency to trade could prove disastrous against big bangers like Cloud or Bellew - while a slicker outboxer can probably beat him with a superior jab).

Beibut Shumenov (Kazakhstan - maybe the hardest-matched rookie the division has seen in years, if not ever. He made waves by beating former champions and contenders in four of his first eight matches. Then came the reality check. He split a pair with WBA champion Gabriel Campillo - losing his first bid, winning the rematch. In bizarre circumstances, their first meeting in his home of Kazakhstan is thought to have been a poor decision that ought to have gone his way in a rare case of anti-home-cooking...while the rematch in the 'neutral' grounds of Las Vegas is considered a robbery in Shumenov's favor. Barring a rubber match, we may get no closure re: the better man. In any event, the jury has delivered a verdict on him: tough, dangerous brawler offering only very limited skills. He is the definition of a ham-&-eggs color-by-numbers fighter, but one whose intangibles could see him sitting on a title or remaining in the hunt for one as long as his physical prime lasts.)

Gabriel "Guapo" Campillo (Spain - as mentioned above, there has been controversy in both his clashes with the Kazakh melee machine. In both Campillo played the "boxer" role but managed to back the puncher up for long stretches behind his high guard, imposing his length and crisp counter combinations. While many feel that he ought to have 2 wins in that series and is flat-out superior to Shumenov, that doesn't necessarily make him a top LHW. His other forays into world class have brought him mixed success and his resume is fairly thin. He got knocked out by Viacheslav Uzelkov - an even more limited smasher than Shumenov who got thoroughly outboxed by the Kazakh. He also lost to Karo Murat, who was undefeated at the time but is someone a top LHW shouldn't lose to...especially as Cleverly outclassed him so utterly and completely. His only notable wins outside of Shumenov are venerated Congolese journeyman Lolenga Mock and Argentine paper champ Hugo Garay, from whom he won the WBA strap. He is a decent boxer, but one who lacks killer instinct and is content to go into "cruise mode" far too often.)

Ismayl Sillakh (Ukraine - the young phenom promoted by Roy Jones Jr., easily the top talent in that stable and just starting to get a "push" from his benefactor with TV and PPV appearances against improving opposition. Of everyone on this list, Sillakh's ratio of upside to downside is easily the most favorable. He's still got lots of proving - and improving - left to do, however. His best wins are against an already battered Daniel Judah and the Cuban amateur-standout-turned-dud-pro Yordanis Despaigne. He seems to have everything going for him - size, power, speed, intelligence, and a seemingly innate knack for the craft of the sweet science. If there is a knock on him it is that he gets lazy and confident on the job, although some might attribute this to being involved in mismatches and feeling unfulfilled.)

Gayrat Ahmedov (Uzbekistan - a huge puncher promoted by Beibut Shumenov, there is really little else to harp on about when it comes to this yet-unbeaten 32-year-old. He appears to be as lacking in multi-dimensionality as his promoter with his only selling point being his crushing power. He also hasn't tested his mettle against many serious live bodies to date after a seven year campaign spent primarily feasting on the dregs of the European scene. His biggest step up to date was scheduled to be against the faded William Joppy on a Shumenov undercard (Joppy was promoted to headline against Beibut when guess-what-German dropped out) - that in itself is telling. Time is running out for Gayrat to step up and show something other than heavy hands...or whether those heavy hands are enough to bludgeon his way to the top. Dubious...)

Dustin Dirks (Germany - another knockout artist. Featured on several big cards, he is in some ways the opposite of Ahmedov...with both youth on his side and a major promoter at his back - with all due respect to Shumenov, his operation is a rinky-dink affair compared to Sauerland. Dirks also exhibits more prowess and versatility in the ring than Ahmedov, shining against the spoon-fed victims provided in his showcases to date with fair movement, defense, and shot selection to go along with his brute force. He has yet to face any stiffer test than British domestic-level gatekeeper Billy Boyle - who he did stop. The good and bad must be taken together with Sauerland as promoter - as he will probably continue to gain exposure and rack up wins for large live and TV audiences, but may be afflicted with "Germanitis"...not exported across the border or really presented with any serious threats at home as long as he can be built up as a moneymaker.)

Tony "Bomber" Bellew (UK - long in Cleverly's shadow, the ESB British forum regular got the call to face his rival as late replacement when Braehmer pulled out. Being unable to make the target weight or get Cleverly and promoter Frank Warren to agree to a non-title catchweight, he was unable to participate. There are no fancy frills to Bellew, who throws with bad intentions and makes for crowd-pleasing engagements. He suffers the inevitable consequences of such a style, however - vulnerable to counters, downed by a couple of his domestic-level dance partners. His aggressive demeanor & steel fists make an intriguing match-up against the faster-handed superior mover in Cleverly, with the latter having been in trouble against the much lighter-hitting Kuziemski. Bellew will need this match-up to finally come off and to score an emphatic triumph in order to be regarded as "graduated" to world level.)


That is IT.

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CONT. (first post was too long; went over the character limit)

Everyone else in the top 50 is either an aging washed-up contender who's had and blown multiple chances or a "rising" *ahem* "prospect" *ahem* without much prospective value. Braehmer himself (whose name was mentioned several times) is no longer a player after his incarceration and so many injuries plaguing his return. His next bout will probably be for a title based on his status before being stripped, but he'll lose to any top names right now as he was already on the slide and was never all that great to begin with...just exciting.

Of the ten names listed above - including the North American "Big Three" who have long been pegged as the faces of the future @ 175 - there really isn't a worthy successor to Hopkins as "the man". Whoever does become "the so-called man" from that list will hardly inspire boxing historians to deem them a legend alongside the likes of the Old Mongoose, the Pittsburgh Kid, the Jinx...or even Quicksilver and the Tiger. Hell, the Executioner himself probably won't have quite the longevity or resume depth in this specific weight class to join either the upper or lower tier in that pantheon.

The lone salvation for LHW as a hot-topic division after Hopkins retires might be the meteoric emergence of a big name that is not yet on the radar (maybe a 2012 Olympian) and/or some of the current top young guns at 168 or possibly even 160 moving up as they grow the last vestiges of their man strength (or just get lazy and don't feel like cutting weight anymore).



In terms of the poll, "Somebody else" includes all the far-fetched options that are not already covered - ie a long-retired boxer coming back, someone moving all the way up from 154 or down from Cruiserweight, or someone who has not yet turned pro and is not a top amateur at the moment (maybe a crossover from another sport like MMA or kickboxing, or even football).

 

Hey. :twisted: Isn't that what people say ironically about bad threads?

 

Henry? Nah. He's in the same boat as Mack and Diaconu (two guys he's lost to, incidentally) - floating just outside those fringe waters IMO. I actually like Hard Hitting Henry a lot, but honestly wouldn't favor him with confidence over anyone in my first post.

 

Yeah, there's a new generation at LHW to replace Hopkins, Tarver, Johnson and Jones - but none of those guys already competing there are all that good (and the best few all have serious drawbacks as far as star potential goes and are questionable in their ability to reign supreme). That's...kind of my whole point here. :!:

So, basically you agree that one or more of today's super middleweights will have to rise up and become tomorrow's light heavyweight stars. Yes?

 

I kind of left Erdei unspoken as lumped in with the "old guard". He and Braehmer are approaching the end of their shelf life and relevance. He talked himself up big after hooking up with DiBella, about barnstorming America and upping both his activity and level of competition. As you say, it looks like he was mostly just blowing smoke. In the several months since that partnership began last autumn, he has outpointed Samson Onyango (blitzed in one by Cleverly) and is lined up next against well past-prime Byron Mitchell, who is 3-6 dating back to 2003.