Saul Alvarez vs Ryan Rhodes Prediction Thread

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[ame]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yPahZbNGXwo&feature=channel_video_title[/ame]

WBC Light Middleweight title, Arena VFG, Tlajomulco de Zúñiga, Jalisco, Mexico.

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Betting Odds

Alvarez 1/8 Rhodes 9/2

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Saul "Canelo" Alvarez
Tlajomulco de Zúñiga, Jalisco, Mexico
20 years old
5,9ft 71inch
36-0-1 (26KO's)
Curent WBC Light Middleweight Champion
Former NABF Welterweight Champion
ESB No.13, The RING No.10

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Notable Fights
UD12 Win Matthew Hatton
UD12 Win Lovemoure N'Dou
KO6 Win Carlos Baldomir
TKO9 Win Jose Miguel Cotto

[ame]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wT0_7OjE_gk[/ame]


What he said

"For me it is so huge, but for my Mexican people it's going to be even bigger. It was my dream to have my first defense in Mexico and now the dream is reality. I am very happy."

"I respect my opponent. He is a real opponent. He has fought at middleweight. He's a real, real challenger. I could do an optional defense, but I choose a real opponent. I just want to prove to the people and media that I am capable of dealing with those type of fighters."

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Ryan "The Spice Boy" Rhodes
Sheffield, Yorkshire, United Kingdom
34 years old
5,81/2 ft 71inch
45-4 (31KO's)
Former European Light Middleweight Champion
Former British Light Middleweight Champion
WBC No.3, WBO No.9
ESB No.10, The RING No.5

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Notable Fights
TKO7 Win Jamie Moore
UD12 Win Vincent Vuma
KO2 Loss Jason Matthews
UD12 Loss Otis Grant


[ame]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D_2GobVqjro[/ame]


What he said

“As a pro he’s done what he has needed to do, he is only twenty years old and he turned pro at fifteen and has had 37 fights so far. Golden Boy are guiding his career and have done a good job for him. This is the first time someone is going to hit him and hit him hard."

“I’ve had it in the back of my head since the fight first got mentioned. But that doesn’t faze me, at the end of the day where ever the fight is there’s only going to be me and him in the ring. I’ve already accepted that his fans will be jeering me in the arena, that’s not going to bother me, I’m 34 years old and have been in the game long enough to not let the crowd bother me."




[ame]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s5BwclBOVog[/ame]


The Fight

As far as away days go its about as tough as they get for Ryan Rhodes. The popular vetran finally gets a world title fight at Light Middleweight, where he is still undefeated, after a 16 year profesional career thats seen many highs and lows. He is facing the darling of mexican boxing "Canelo" Alvarez. In a nation where boxing is as big as football Alvarez there version of David Beckham. He fights in the mexican all action style, the ladies love him (If Rhodes came out with some of the ginger jokes DeGale uses he wouldn't get out of Mexico alive) and Golden Boy Promotions are pinning there hopes to him. The mexican will start 3 rounds up with the judges and get the benefit of the doubt for any close rounds.

But those of us more astute to the sweet science all know......he isn't actually anything special. He isn't paticuarly fast, he is not a huge puncher, his defence is leaky and recent events have called his dedication into question. He is kind of a B+ at everything and he couldn't stop domestic level Matthew Hatton when winning the WBC Light Middleweight title earliar in the year.

Canelo has faced average opposition. Baldomir and N'Dou being the names that stand out. But they are both well past there prime and came up from Welterweight like Alvarez. If you go through his record you see mostly come forward sluggers which are perfect for him to look good agaisnt.

In Rhodes he faces an awkward fighter. He has the sheffield/ingle/winkerbank/naz style able to switch from southpaw to orthadox without any issue. A reaction based defence based on slipping shots and making your opponent miss rather than blocking punches. Rhodes is also huge for 154lbs and has competed at Middleweight throughout his career and Alvarez has been feasting of blown up Welterweights so far.

Rhodes tactics will likley be to use his style to frustrate Alvarez and get the crowd on his back early. Force Alvarez to take more risks than he should and open himself up for the counter. Rhodes has 1 punch power and is a great finisher. If he can get through the first 4 rounds making it a boring fight, not getting hurt he can sucker Alarez in. Canelo will not be content with winning a boring points decision in front of his home fans and Rhodes trainer Dave Coldwell will be well aware of that.

There are several things going agaisnt Rhodes. Obviously he is away from home, in the Mexican heros back yard. The ref, judges will be on his side. i imagine in will be the smallest ring in history. Rhodes had a dodgy patch in his career in the first half of the 2000's but he has put together a terrific run based on fighting reguarly but latley he has been inactive. Since his career best win over Jamie Moore almost 2 years ago he has only had 2 fights boxing 8 rounds in total. He is also getting on in years, and was close to being stopped agaisnt Jamie Moore before coming back to win. You have to think if he looks in any kind of trouble the ref will be very quick to jump in.

Rhodes is very much a live underdog but you have to think theres to much going agaisnt him in this fight. Sadly I expect Rhodes, whos big chance has come to late in his career, to lose in a close fight that may also be controversial.

[ame]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1wsmLApVcqo[/ame]

 

Alvarez brother got a very dodgy win over Ishiada to win the WBA title last year. Fighters get robbed in every country. UK, USA, Mexico, Germany. Everywhere.

Doesn't mean boxing isn't huge though does it?