What if this ATG simply did not exist? How would the Heavyweight Division have shaped up? Who could have stepped up & ruled with the remaining contenders available.
The Walcott- Charles series would have been legendary. Moore might have had a better chance on becoming Heavyweight Champion?
I have often thought about this myself. The first step to understanding it is to ask what impact Rocky Marciano had before he held the title. I will make two assumptions. 1. That none of Rocky Marcianos fights before the Rex Layne fight in 1951 had a significant impact on the heavyweight picture. 2. That none of Rocky Marcianos fights before he held the title led indirectly to Joe Walcott bcoming champion. If we do not make these asumptions the problem just becomes too complex. The rankings 1950 Ezzard Charles, Champion Joe Louis Lee Savold Joey Maxim Clarence Henry Bob Baker Rex Layne Jersey Joe Walcott Jack Gardner Lee Oma Rocky Marciano 1951 Jersey Joe Walcott, Champion Ezzard Charles Rocky Marciano Clarence Henry Roland LaStarza Karel Sys Joe Louis Cesar Brion Joe Baksi Bob Baker Johnny Williams 1952 Rocky Marciano, Champion Jersey Joe Walcott Rex Layne Ezzard Charles Bob Dunlop Clarence Henry Johnny Williams Roland LaStarza Heinz Neuhaus Karel Sys Jimmy Bivins Marcianos impact before he won the title I suggest that Marcianos main impacts on the heavyweight title before he won the title (in this order) were: 1. To eliminate Harry Kid Matthews in the final round for a shott at Walcotts title. 2. To eliminate the shell of Joe Louis from title contention. 3. To end Rex Laynes winning streak and possibly ruin him as a fighter. I further suggest that without Marciano one of these three fighters would have got the title shot in his place. Harry Kid Matthews outpointed Rex Layne to get into the last round of the eliminator with Marciano for the title shot, and Marciano got his place by beating Louis. If we assume that Rex Laynes fight with Marciano did not contribute to his loosing to Harry Kid Matthews then the title shot would probably have been given to the winner of a Louis Matthews fight. Whoever the winner I like Jersey Joes chances of retaining his title against them. Jersey Joe Walcott (Heavyweight champion) Walcott has just got past Ezzard Charles twice (once to win the title and once to win the rematch) and he will probably not offer him another chance unless Charles puts together a winning streak. He knows how dangerous Charles is and he has had to work hard to get his title shot. Walcott Charles V might happen but it probably wont unless Walcott holds on to the title for another two or three defences. Walcott would probably be most receptive to fighting the winner of the Louis, Matthews, Layne fallout because. 1. He will be fairly confident of winning any of the above fights (moreso than of beating Charles). 2. He has a loss to avenge with Louis or Layne (if one of them comes out on top). 3. This will be a fight with the backing of the boxing establishment that will draw a large gate. Whichever fight took place I would predict a Walcott win based on his performance in the first Marciano fight weighed against the performances of these three fighters around this period. Therfore I will move onto Walcotts third defence. Walcott prepares for his third title defence Marcianos first title defence was a rematch against Walcott because Walcott was the former champion. Walcott would probably not award a rematch to the looser of his previous fight unless the result had been controvertial. Rocky Marciano chose Roland LaStraza for his second title defence in large part because of the controvertial decision that he had been awarded in their previous fight. Wlacott had no such outstanding issue and probably would not have chosen LaStraza. It is possible that he would have chosen a second fight with Rex Layne who had beaten him previously (asuming that this fight had not already taken place). Time has to catch up with Walcott sooner or later and it was around this point that it did. His decline might have been delayed without the Marciano fights but he would have been on borrowed time. He would have known this and it is likley that he would take a last chance to cash in on his title with a few easy paydays against second teir guys like Cesar Brion or Lee Oma. Either way he can only walk the tightrope for so long. The next champion However creative Walcott is he is not going to last untill Floyd Patterson comes allong and probably not long enough to fight Archie Morre for the title. The end will come and it will come from one of a number of directions. Likley scenarios include: 1. Walcott will retire on top leaving his sucessor to be decided by an elimination tournament (you can but hope). 2. Ezzard Charles will reclaim the title from a declining Wlacott around the time that he challenged Marciano for the title. 3. Walcott will loose his title against sombody like Nino Valdez, Roland LaStraza or Bob Baker who he might see as a lower risk option than Ezzard Charles. 4. Walcott will decline to the point that he looses his title to a contender from lower down in the rankings. The winners of the Marciano free lineage I am prepared to say in general terms that without Rocky Marciano there would be at least two aditional lineal heavyweight champions. Walcott would have to loose his title sooner or later and none of the other contenders were strong enough to dominate the scene over the remainder of the period. The main winner would be Archie Moore. Around the period when he fought Marciano I dont think anybody around could have beaten him. I think that Ezzard Charles would have had a good chance of becoming the first heavyweight to regain the title. Say that instead of fighting Marciano he fights a further disipated Walcott or another contender of the period who has lifted the title from Walcott. It is also possible that we might get a wildcard lineal champion like Matthews, Layne, LaStraza, Valdez, Baker or even sombody like Bob Satterfield.
I think Moore makes a push at heavyweight a couple of years sooner. Matthews and Layne are the real wildcards with Marciano not in the picture. I have to think Layne gets a shot after beating Charles. How could Walcott avoid that match when he had also lost to Layne? You covered the options very well.
Lets not forget that when LarSarza did fight the Rock, he was ranked number 1, I belive he would have goting a shot at Walcott sooner or later.
Good point Roland LaStarza could be the dark horse, He was a very good fighter & could make a very strong run for the title. especially against an aging Walcott.
LaStraza was the No1 contender but this would not guarantee him a shot at Walcott unless he could hold onto that position for a significant period. Also we dont know how active or willing to take risks Walcott is by this point.
I belive Roland can hold onto it for a long as can. Marciano did ruin LarSarza in the rematch, but Rocky is not here to do that. I think only Charles would be a threat in taking the spot away. Valez also. But I think Roland can hold onto it to force Walcott for a fight.
I somtimes think that LaStarza was a bit of an unknown quantity. At his best he was definitely one of the better fighters of the era but his resume is a bit thin on elite level talent. He has an SD win over Rex Layne (the version that Marciano and Charles had chewed up and spat out) which presumably made him the No1 contender. Outside of that and the Marciano fights he hasnt mixed it with the best of the era. This makes me question whether he could have held onto his status as No1 contender if Walcott vasilated about fighting him or avoided him. We also dont know how willing Walcott would have been to risk his title against the best challengers around. He might have conducted a string of defences against no hopers as Charles did. To be fair to him the two voluntary defences that he did undertake (Charles II and Marciano I) were both high risk ones.
Without giving the matter much thought, I think the title would have likely changed hands on several different occasions until Floyd Patterson eventually ended up with it. I don't know if Joe Walcott could have retained the belt from 1952-1956 without dropping it, given his age. Archie Moore might have had a shot at becomming heavyweight champ, and Ezzard Charles may have regained it.....Who knows?