Seems to me that Pavlik only needed to fight Miranda ONE TIME to beat him and beat him soundly. I remember in that fight, Miranda busted Pavlik square on the chin and nothing. I also remember that Miranda BROKE AA Jaw and if KP did the same thing you can bet his boxing skills would have ended the fight. This is a Zab/KT scenario. Big Puncher (who does have more skills) vs. a very precise puncher. I see KP winning by accumulation of punishment.
Abraham seems to lull fighters in with a false sense of security with his high gaurd, and lack of activity - but then gets in great counters. Kelly will not be able to relax one minute in this fight, or get lazy with his jab, otherwise, he could end up on ***** street. Pavlik's jab is improving every time out, but one thing he cannot do imo with Abraham that he does with the rest of his opponents, is take some steam off of it. Every time he throws it, it has to be fast, and thuding. He has a tendency to get lazy from time to time with it. The double-jab will be open for Kelly all night long with Abraham's style, but also leaves more oppurtunities to be countered by Abraham. Another flaw (although somewhat minor, seems to be a habit) I noticed from Pavlik, is when he shoots a right hand; If he connects (on occasions, sometimes, even when he misses) with a good right hand, upon his hand returning to the defensive position, he'll bring it past his head, and out to the side -- almost like a "being in the zone" type of habit he developed over the years once he's in a good rhythm, and connecting with it; sometimes upon doing this, he has a tendency to admire his work for a split second. It's a subtle flaw, but does exist, and I've always who will take advantage. Abraham might be the man to do it. Given all of that, I expect Kelly Pavlik to fight tall, use his reach, be patient, pick his spots, and not get lazy or lulled into a false sense of security. Abraham is an excellent counter puncher. Will he be able to counter Pavlik? I'm sure he'll have his oppurtunities, but few and far between. I'd say 60/40 in favor of Pavlik. TKO in the later half of the fight. :good
Jsimps said that Kelly's camp is well aware of his tendency to leave a punch out there so I'm sure they are working on that. Pavlik's motivation seems to be growing. He starts camps earlier than before. He wants to stay unbeaten and on top.
Every top level fighter is pretty confident. I wouldn't read too much into these statements. We hear too much from a Miranda and too little from a Pavlik.
That is one helluva post Leeroy! When you reference Pavlik "taking the steam off" his jab part of the time, you're right, and that is something few people notice. At times the glove isn't even closed. I think what he is doing is just keeping that jab in the other guys eyes to diguise the right hand. However, he probably should not employ that tactic against AA. It leaves to many opportunities to counter. I've notice the thing with the right hand too. He needs to get over that. On a more positive note, I think a lot of people are missing an important point. The point is this; in order to counterpunch effectively you have to be in range. Kelly has a huge arm length advantage, and is pretty good at judging and maintaining his distance. Arthur would have to be able to close that distance faster than Pavlik can move to maintain it. Arthur can't do that with any degree of regularity because their hand and foot speed is about equal. This is the reason that Arthur's counterpunching ability does not worry me in this fight.
By the way Scar -- I did not mean to create the impression that I think Pavlik can just walk through Arthur. Kelly will have to be focused at all times. Clearly, you don't have to make many mistakes for AA to knock ya the **** out. Kelly has to stay focused while Arthur would have to stay OFF THE ****ING ROPES cuz going to the ropes against Pav is suicide.
You need to look better. AA put Miranda on his ass with a straight, compact right. Rest was going for the kill.
I give Pavlik a slight edge, but I would never bet on that fight. One Hell of a fight while it lasts though.
That is very true as well. He has a great sense of distance, and gets good leverage on his shots. :good