How do you see this fight going. A lot of people seem to have changed there mind on it i probably have might have to go check. Anyway after seeing Kelly back and fresh in your head, and seeing Williams have trouble with Martinez how do you see it going?
At the minute i think Williams is made for Pavlik(this will probably change in a day), he doesn't have the ring movement to do what Hopkins done to Pavlik. He also doesn't use his jab to an extent he can keep Pavlik off him for 12 rounds. Williams stands infront of his opponents which is something Pavlik loves. Williams usually stands just outside of his opponents range and inside his own not getting the full connection on his own punches. I think Pavlik if he gets his jab going will give williams all sorts of problems. My thoughts if Williams doesn't change his style Pavlik will probably KO him or win a UD. His volume punching alone will not win him this fight. I think this is still the best time to fight Pavlik as even the Espino fight showed Pavlik isn't back to his old form yet but if still think he has enough for williams. Would like a good argument for Williams in this thread as i probably haven't give him enough credit.
I see it the same as you. Williams is a take one to give two fighter and so is Pavlik. It makes me chuckle to myself when I hear people referring to Pavlik/Hopkins as if it has any relevance to the styles at play here. The only question is whether Williams southpaw stance and handspeed proves to more effective than Pavlik's strength and power. That is the equation I'm looking at. There is no particular science to this fight, its two volume guys that only think of offense.
I think it's a toss up, Pavlik looked terrible slow in his last fight, could Williams exploit that? I doubt it. I'd go for a Pavlik late KO or UD, if I had to.
I think Pavliks timing might play a big factor in the fight. The main swing on the fight i think is wether Pavlik shows up, he hasn't had the same class of opponent since the Taylor fights too show how good he is. B-Hop didn't give Kelly a chance to even think of landing something of note. Rubio, Lockett and Espino didn't even make Pavlik get out of 2nd gear and people are writing him off because of it. Hopefully the bookies follow.
Unfortunately as a fan of Williams, I see this going much the same way. Williams is going to stand and trade in front of Pavlik, unless he comes up with some sort of stylistic change. That will play right into Pavliks hands as he will be able land his 1-2 all night. I don't think Williams will be able to withstand Pavlik's artillery for the whole fight and will eventually be worn down and Pavlik should be durable enough to take whatever Paul can give him. I'm thinking Pavlik late TKO. Should the fight happen, I would hope that I'm wrong and Williams would pull it out of the bag though.
Williams UD. I'm not changing my mind based on a close fight taken at short notice with the best active fighter at 154. Too busy and way too much variation for Pavlik, IMHO. It's always been an intriguing fight, though, and I hope it's still made as it was the one I was most looking forward to last year.
Can you imagine if Martinez had had time to have trained for the fight?! Martinez beat Williams and it was not even close! Martinez punches lightly. If Pavlik land one punch, Williams will be out. Williams counts on his personal judges to give him a gift. I hope everyone saw that fight. Martinez was robbed badly.
OP and TFFP hit the nail on the head. Williams is not a crafty slickster like Hopkins. He's a come forward, relatively gung-ho pressure fighter who relies heavily on physical advantages to get by. His defence is fundamentally sloppy. He presents a difficult package for any of the top names from 147-154, and probably beats most of them, but against a sizeable, hard-punching Middleweight who can take his shots and match him for work rate and size, he's not going to last long. Pavlik will flatten Williams in under four rounds. It's very much a Hagler/Hearns affair to me.
I like Williams a lot and think he beats Pavlik in a much more technical fight than people think it would be. (Or at least a good/exccellent boxing display from Paul Williams) However, I don't think Pavlik will take this fight and Williams insistance that he can successfully fight at 147, 154 and 160 is the reason he'll be able to avoid it. Williams needs to stop worrying about fighting in so many different weight catagories and concentrate on one. He needs to force the top guys into fighting him by successfully navigating himself not only into mandatory posistions but also into the genral public's awareness. He may seriously believe that he is the "most avoided fighter in the World" (c) HBO, but if truth be told no-one is interested in watching him outside of hardcore boxing circles and Augusta, Georgia. Until both these situations change, and I hope they do because I think he is a excellent fighter, he will not achieve anything that will have people talking about him in 20 years time.
Forgetting that disgraceful 119-110 scorecard, this fight was not a robbery. It could have gone either way (I personally scored it a draw) and even Martinez didn't protest about the overall decision.
I'm a Williams fan, but I'm thinking the same as most of those already posted. I think it will be a great fight while it lasts, but dont see Williams being able to take too many of Kelly's bombs. That being said, I dont think there is that much of a style change required from PW. He doesnt need to box like Hopkins. Hopkins schooled Kelly with that performance. Williams just needs to take a few pointers from that fight to tip the balance. Little more lateral movement. A little extra distance between him and Kelly and I'd immediately change my view. He doesnt need to be Pernell Whitaker in there to beat Kelly, only a little change of tac for me is required.