I think the rematch would do more, but it'll need to do a hell of a lot better than I think it would to earn the fighters more than they'd get for a 60/40 AJ split plus rematch.
The other problem for either Fury or Wilder is the loser from the rematch (which in my opinion will be Fury) The loser would have to take a massive split cut as they wouldn't get the 40% being offered by AJ now or they will get frozen out altogether meaning either Fury or Wilder will lose millions. Big gamble taking the rematch in my opinion.
The first fight would have been around the same if not beaten what AJ generated against Povetkin. At $75 for US PPV of a rematch which will no doubt at least double its number from the 1st fight, a Vegas site fee and UK PPV to boot it’s really not even a debate what going to generate more. When it comes to Wilder and Fury, AJ will have to stick his 40%- he’s out of the loop and short of options until after the next round of fights. I’m sure he will then come back into the equation 100%
The biggest loser would be Wilder if he lost the rematch in my opinion. He becomes a dangerous puncher with no title and he's never done massive business. Who needs him? Fury and Joshua move onto fighting each other, quite possibly more than once, and that's before we see what happens with Usyk, Miller, Whyte, maybe even someone like Gorman given by this stage we'll be two/three years down the line. If Fury loses the rematch he still has a Joshua fight somewhere down the line. It'll always be big.
I agree that Wilder will get frozen out if he loses which is why taking the rematch is a big gamble. If Fury loses then there is still interest from UK for AJ fight but he won't get the 40% being offered by Hearn now so again a big gamble taking rematch. Surely for both fighters the sensible decision is AJ. For Wilder he has the chance to be undisputed and a massive payday. For Fury he can prove to be the best by beating AJ, get a massive payday and then go for rematch for undisputed with Wilder. My opinion is that AJ Fury will never happen as Hearn and FW will never ever do business together.
I think any combination of Wilder, Fury & AJ is fantastic for the sport and all make business sense. I think this has been a good reality check for AJ’s team. Arguably, prior to these recent 60/40 offers, the way they’ve been lowballing fighters just because they can, is bordering on disrespectful. Telling fighters they should be grateful for the split simply because it beats their previously highest purse. Sorry, but it’s arrogant. I don’t think it’s any coincidence that Whyte, Wilder & Fury are freezing AJ out for the first part of the year. It’s a reminder that although he might be the A side, he still needs Fury, Wilder & even Whyte to punch in the face to remain relevant.
It seems obvious but Wilder really should be banging the door down to get Joshua. He's running out of time and options. Nearly lost the Ortiz fight. In the eyes of most he did lose the Fury fight. And we now know how he does in PPV terms, and it's average at best. He'll never get a better chance of fighting to become the undisputed champion and if he chucks the chance away he'll probably never get it back.
You’re wrong about the AJ fight. The winner increases their stock and AJ wants that green belt. If Fury wins then the Whyte fight will be big as an alternative (assuming he fights Breazeale and not AJ).
Joshua v Wilder does. Heavyweight boxing is the pinnacle of the sport. What’s better than having a unified champion?