The only way i can see Askren winning this is making it a dog fight on the inside and hoping for Paul gassing out of his mind after a few rounds. But i honestly do not believe Askren has even 50% of the necessary skillset to fight on the inside with success against a taller and bigger guy. He's probably the worst MMA striker out there. Even Mickey Gall is a boxing technician compared to Askren. I'm going with Paul via Decision.
Askren is counting on his physical toughness to see him through. You don't get to be a wrestler of his caliber without being extremely tough mentally and physically He is counting on Paul to fold when the going gets tough. I don't think it will be enough. I'm taking Paul in 2.