This would turn out to be another fight where Arthur looks like the limited yet powerful caveman that he is.
I don't think highly of AA but he would be a legit and focus MW. AA would KO Martinez because Sergio has his hands too low, doesn't have great defense, tires in the middle rounds with AA picks up, and AA has 1 punch KO power and a excellent chin.
You would have to favour martinez here but aa is underrated, remember how a few years ago you had these hearns vs abraham at 160 threads, people thought highly of him and the ss ruined his rep. He can still be a solid contender at 160 I believe.
As long as AA is in bad mental shape he will win no fight. Another trainer could be the right step. In his fights against Froch and Ward it was quite obvious that his trainer could not help him. AA went into self-defence mode waiting for a chance to knock his opponent out but was constantly outworked by those. With a good gameplan the scenario could have been another. Give him a trainer who improves his jab and teaches him in throwing combinations he could be a good contender at 168 and at 160 again.
I'd honestly look for a 120-108 type decision for Martinez. AA is just to slow and limited to keep up with Martinez. As for the OP suggesting "an easy fight like Pavlik:" That's silly. Go watch any 5 Abraham fights. With the single exception of really fast hands, Pavlik possesses every single attribute that Abraham has trouble with. AA would not see the final bell. He's to slow, and loves hiding in the corner to much.