Pavlik would win this war IMO. i haven't seen him lose a war. He's been out-foxed, but I've never seen him out-banged. I think it would take a significantly larger dude than Kirkland to do it.
Prime Pavlik wins by KO, he would keep the jab in James's face and not allow him to get inside and setup shop.
The asylum worker got called away from his computer and didn't lock the screen would be my first guess.
Wrong fight for Kirkland. Kelly would gladly get it to a brawl and then land his right. Kirkland is the kind of opponent Kelly loves.