If Cotto boxed like he did against Margarito the second time, he could definitely put rounds in the bank early with his jabbing, lateral movement, and crisp 3-4 punch combinations. It wouldn't surprise me if Cotto was up 7-2 or 6-3 after 9 rounds. Alvarez is patient (perhaps a little too patient) and seems to like to hang back and analyze what his opponent does for long stretches of time at the beginning of rounds (a little like what Felix Trinidad used to do.) He'd be a fool to try and pressure Alvarez though, as Alvarez is much bigger and stronger than he is at 154. Alvarez would get the better of the action in close with his heavy hooks and uppercuts, and he'd have the strength to muscle Cotto around in close and possibly wear him down. For me at least, this fight boils down to two things: will Cotto's stamina hold up, and can Alvarez effectively close the distance and get Cotto to the ropes or corners if Cotto employs his boxing skills (which seems likely, as his pressure-fighting style likely wouldn't come into play against the bigger, stronger Alvarez; Cotto is smart enough to not box to his opponent's strengths and play into their hands.) I think that Cotto's stamina will hold up well for the first 9 rounds or so. Past that? He gets tired. Against Floyd recently, he looked gassed after the 9th round (whereas he didn't look tired against Margarito recently.) If Alvarez can get some body shots in earlier in the fight, he might indeed be breathing heavily by the late rounds. As far as Alvarez getting inside, well, he'd have to use more head movement, as well as trying to time his right hand over Cotto's jab before letting loose with his hooks and bulling his way in. He'd have to be able to jab his way in, too, whenever Cotto throws hooks or uppercuts. My guess is Cotto gets the better of the early going, with Alvarez enjoying sporadic success in spurts, before Alvarez slowly starts to enjoy more success until he seizes control in the 9th or 10th. Cotto is smart, and can counterpunch and move well, so he might be able to stop Alvarez from finishing him, but I think Alvarez will sweep the late rounds if he doesn't stop Cotto. I'm picking Alvarez by close decision (judges always seem to give away rounds early to a guy even if he's losing just to stop the scores from getting lopsided, a la DLH-Mosley II, when Oscar swept the first 7 rounds but the judges apparently thought otherwise; I'd expect the same to happen here even if Cotto similarly dominates the early going) or late stoppage, but I wouldn't be surprised if Cotto boxed his way to a close, gritty win. This is close to a 50-50 fight stylistically in my opinion, but Cotto's stamina problems, Alvarez's youth, size, and strength, and possibly the judges favoring the younger rising star all make me favor Canelo.
Canelo looks great as a frontrunner, but a lot more ordinary when someone takes it to him a little. I think Cotto would still be too much for him at this stage.
Your on crack and clearly Cottards, Cotto has been in wars and is coming off a loss towards the end of his career. Cotto gets over rated on here, that is clear.
I'd like to see Cotto have another bout before fighting Alvarez, before I have a strong opinion. I think James Kirkland or Carlos Molina would be good choices. I don't think you can judge how someone will do in the future based on how he did against Mayweather.
Cotto easily. Better timing on the outside, tighter and more accurate work on the inside, better combination punching, better mobility, better upper body movement. The only thing Canelo has is height and weight.
Cotto is so ****ing under and overrated everywhere I go. It's really a 50/50 fight and would be huge if Cotto could pop that cherry, i think he could.
Yeah, because Canelo's handspeed is blinding Cotto's timing is much more mature, and his offense is much more dynamic.
I REALLY like Cotto. But let's be honest. Nevada gives you everything that is allowed on your hands in a sealed bag. Chances of Margo being loaded against Cotto in the first fight was pretty remote. If Pac hadn't messed up Margo's eye and made it easy pickings for Cotto it looked like the second fight may have gone the way of the first. I'd really want to believe Cotto could make it down the home stretch against Alverez. I'm just not confident in making that prediction.
The first Margarito fight is nearly irrelevant, as he's practically perfected his lateral movement. In the rematch, he controlled the center, as opposed to running along the perimeter, and the shots Margarito landed in the clinches did not seem to bother him at all. I don't see anything Canelo brings to bother Cotto. It would be a good competitive fight, don't get me wrong, but what exactly do you see that Canelo does better than Cotto? He can't counter his aggression on the inside, and he probably can't cut off the ring as well as Cotto can turn him.