Mayweather vs Pacquiao - Crunching the numbers...

Hey guys,

Since the most recent excuse for the megafight not happening appears to be the revenue split, I have decided to take it upon myself to crunch the numbers of all of Floyd Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao's pay-per-view fights and to calculate what the ideal split for the fight should be. Here we go (all estimated revenue is calculated with an average PPV price of $50, some events were more expensive, some were cheaper)...

Floyd Mayweather PPVs

vs Oscar De La Hoya (2,400,000 buys - est. revenue $120,000,000)
vs Ricky Hatton (920,000 buys - est. revenue $46,000,000)
vs Juan Manuel Marquez (1,050,000 buys - est. revenue $52,500,000)
vs Shane Mosley (1,400,000 buys - est. revenue $70,000,000)
vs Victor Ortiz (1,250,000 buys - est. revenue $62,500,000)
vs Miguel Cotto (1,500,000 buys - est. revenue $75,000,000)

Total buys = 8,520,000
Average buys = 1,420,000

Total est. revenue = $426,000,000
Average est. revenue = $71,000,000

Manny Pacquiao PPVs

vs Oscar De La Hoya (1,250,000 buys - est. revenue $62,500,000)
vs Ricky Hatton (850,000 buys - est. revenue $42,500,000)
vs Miguel Cotto (1,250,000 buys - est. revenue $62,500,000)
vs Joshua Clottey (700,000 buys - est. revenue $35,000,000)
vs Antonio Margarito (1,150,000 buys - est. revenue $57,500,000)
vs Shane Mosley (1,340,000 buys - est. revenue $67,000,000)
vs Juan Manuel Marquez (1,450,000 buys - est. revenue $72,500,000)
vs Timothy Bradley (700,000 buys - est. revenue $35,000,000)

Total buys = 8,690,000
Average buys = 1,086,250

Total est. revenue = $434,500,000
Average est. revenue = $54,312,500

So when crunching the above numbers it is clear that since 2007, Manny has generated more money and sold a greater total of combined PPVs, however, he has done so with two more PPV events than Floyd. It is therefore unfair to calculate a revenue split based on totals. Averages are a far more reliable source to go on when determining a potential revenue split then. The below calculation is my determination of how the revenue should be split...

$71,000,000 (Floyd's average est. revenue) + $54,312,500 (Manny's average est. revenue) = $125,312,500 (Combined average est. revenue)

71,000,000/125,312,500 = 0.566 (56.6%)
54,312,500/125,312,500 = 0.433 (43.3%)

So there it is, my calculations have determined that in the case of a potential megafight between Floyd Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao, Floyd should get a 56.6% share of the total revenue generated, and Manny should get the remaining 43.3%, based on how their previous PPV numbers compare with one another.

Problem solved! Right...

 

Looks legit

 

Good stuff.

Also have to look at what the fighters are taking home and past earnings.

For example, Manny has a $25.5 million high payday while Mayweather has a $45.0 million high payday.

Damn, Floyd averages about 25% more PPV buys than Manny too.

Also, your revenue on the De La Hoya fight is off. The fight did $138,000,000 in revenue. 2.4 million buys at $57.5 per buy.

Mosley Mayweather did $78.0 million in revenue.

Ortiz Mayweather is ranked #3 at $78.4 million in revenue.

Cotto Mayweather is #2 and did $94.0 million in revenue.

Manny also did $72.0 million with Cotto and $73.0 millon with Mosley. Manny did 1.3 million (per arum) with Mosley as well.

Manny did $71.0 million with Oscar.

 

Floyd's threat to quit after every fight keeps him popular and in the conversation. Floyd also uses social media (Facebook, Twitter, Vimeo), has high level celebrity friends, and is in the spotlight 10X more than Pacquiao.

Floyd fights 2X a year, his PPVs drop. Supply and demand. Floyd's also American.

That Pacquiao gets the numbers he does without any of the aforementioned advantages above tells me that they are equal draws. Floyd promotes himself 24/7/365. Pacquiao isn't heard from or about unless there's a fight coming up.

 

"women lie... Men lie... Numbers dont lie"

 

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I know, my calculations are approximations based on the assumption that all PPVs are priced at $50. As you have stated, in the case of Mayweather-De La Hoya and Mayweather-Mosley, the overall revenue generated is slightly more than I have stated due to the fact that those specific PPVs were priced at slightly more than $50. However, in the case of Mayweather-Hatton and Mayweather-Marquez, the PPV price was slightly below $50, so I decided that my overall totals and averages would turn out to be more or less true values.

 

They're not excuses. Just legitimate variables.

You really think that if Floyd had fought 2X a year for the last 5 years, his PPV numbers would be just as good?

:rofl:roflatsch

 

What evidence do you have to the contrary? In my opinion the activity argument is weakest of all.

 

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A 55/45 split in PPV seems reasonable. Good work.

 

Even a 60/40 would be acceptable to Pacquiao at this point I believe. Its almost certain that at this point, this fight would probably be both of their last fight, so a 60/40 split of a record breaking revenue would easily satisfy the final BIG payday they are both craving. Even with 40%, Pacquiao would still make more money than if he received 90% of revenue for fighting someone else.

 

Your calculations look solid , how is it then Floyd offers less than half the above he gets support from a so called boxing fans.

Floyd simply tried getting the fight on the cheap or at a 'go away' price. I think it was the latter.

 

It probably would be. Do the fighters get a piece of the overseas market? Europe, South America and Asia? Is that negotiated as well in these deals?

 

problem is floyd wants most of the pie